Victory Chronicles
-Day 462

Above: It’s not Mariupol 2022.  It’s 1999 in a Moscow suburb, when a series of deadly domestic apartment bombings, proven to be carried out by Russian security services, propelled KGB agent Putin to the presidency and rallied broad support for a new brutal war on Chechnya. (Photo: Hudson)

Concerning the drone attack on Moscow Tuesday, maps show hits in wealthy neighborhoods west of the Kremlin, in particular, near one of Putin’s places.  But, the minor damage reported is nothing compared to the Kremlin’s 1999 attack on domestic high-rise apartment buildings to rally support for war on Chechnya.   

The mystery of who sent drones into Moscow Tuesday morning has prompted raging debate in the news, social media and among pundits. While many sleuths focus on hardware and logistical evidence, we ask, who benefits?  A tiny dictator who is bleeding his economy and can’t recruit enough warm bodies for his war would benefit if insulated, elitist Moscow rallies behind his cause.  For those who argue that it’s too embarrassing for Moscow to have done this to itself, let’s remember that Russia’s little boss is a master at deflecting blame.

Barbra Streisand with beautiful Ukrainian vyshyvanka – her paternal grandparents have originally come from Ternopil Oblast of Ukraine.

More news here 👉 https://t.co/S95ZiWIv7E pic.twitter.com/Nxrcr6IvuA

— The New Voice of Ukraine (@NewVoiceUkraine) May 31, 2023

On the left: UK Ministry of Defence

• Russia continues to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of medical treatment. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that occupation authorities routinely diagnose Ukrainian children in occupied territory with illnesses that need treatment in Russia.  Occupation authorities then force families to take Russian citizenship to be eligible for medical treatment.  Parents that resist can have their parental rights taken away.  The Resistance Center reports that unemployed Belarusians are increasingly arriving in occupied territory to work for the occupiers.  
• Sweden’s accession into NATO is “within reach”, according to NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg who is optimistic that a solution will be found at the NATO summit in July.  US Secretary of State Blinkin was in Sweden on Tuesday, urging both Turkey and Hungary to move on approval.  Speaking with the Swedish PM Kristersson, Mr Blinken said Sweden has addressed Turkish concerns over Kurds living in Sweden with a constitutional amendment.
• Sweden formally applied to join Nato last year, but was blocked by Turkey over claims that Kurdish militants had settled in the country. Stoltenberg said it was “possible to reach a solution and enable the decision on full membership for Sweden by “ the Nato summit in July.
• A Washington Post columnist, Max Boot, spent a week in Kyiv and reported on his astonishment at Ukrainian resilience and determination. The writer, who went with Gary Kaspirov’s Renew Democracy Initiative, remarked, “Power remains on and life goes on outside of the front-line areas. Continued Russian attacks on urban areas are only making Ukrainians angrier at the invaders and more determined to resist their onslaught.” The columnist said that Mayor Klitschko told the group that Kyiv’s pre-war population of 3.8 million is back up to 3.6 million, albeit including 300,000 refugees from conflict zones. 
• We are fascinated by the imaginary war that Moscow is waging, designed to fool the Russian media audience into believing that everything is going to plan. Russia’s MoD again made absurd claims of how many weapons it had destroyed in Ukraine this month and passed out rewards and medals. Even the milbloggers said nobody could believe the incredible numbers. 
• Russia continues to pile up the perks for military service.  Amid widespread complaints that Moscow doesn’t follow through on promised compensation, Putin appointed his niece to head a veterans’ support program which envisions a national network of 3,000 specially-trained coordinators to help veterans get social benefits and to run a national propaganda campaign to create a national pride military service.  
• Wagner announced its own domestic propaganda campaign called “Second Front”, to mobilize Russian minds to mentally defend against “Ukraine’s full-scale invasion of Russia”.  In addition, Wagner is advertising fantastic mercenary job opportunities in dozens of languages on Western social media like Facebook and Twitter. According to Politico, “Twitter responded to a request for comment with an automated poop emoji.”
• The Kremlin’s Duma is preparing legislation to send medical school grads to the battlefield for a mandatory 18-month service.  Russia has already reduced training requirements for medical personnel to expedite their deployment to the war amid a critical shortage. 

Video: General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Above: Russian equipment destroyed by Russian invaders in Russia last week. (Ukraine Weapons Tracker)

Drones have struck the Afipsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, Russia. This is a major refinery that produces millions of tons of gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products. It's located about 175 km from the Kerch Bridge which connects Russia to Russian-occupied Crimea. pic.twitter.com/TYDC1oBJcn

— Ukraine Reporter (@StateOfUkraine) May 31, 2023

Visually confirmed Russian tank losses during the:

First Chechen War: 192
Second Chechen War: 23
Russo-Georgian War: 3
Russo-Ukrainian War: 2002 pic.twitter.com/dzfYxdQNMK

— Oryx (@oryxspioenkop) May 29, 2023

Above:  Air Force of Ukraine. 30 May 2023; Destroyed: (29) strike drones Shahed-136/131.

On the left: Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022, with daily additions

ITEM	QTY	▲
Liquidated personnel	207910	+470
Tanks	3802
Armored personnel vehicles	7472	+3
Artillery systems/ MLRS	3460/575	+15/0
Anti-aircraft systems	333	+1
Aircraft/ helicopters	313/298
Unmanned aerial vehicles	3124	+32
Cruise missiles	1107
Warships/ boats	18
Vehicles and fuel tanks	6230	+11
Special equipment	454

 

Above: Emergency responders on the scene of civilian missiles strike in Sumy. (State Emergency Services)

The General Staff summarized attacks on civilians: 

Glory to Ukraine! The 462nd day of large-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation against our state has begun. 

• The Russian Federation, suffering heavy losses, continues to wage a war of aggression. Occupiers continue to use terror tactics, trying to intimidate the population of Ukraine, strikes and attacks not only military, but also civilian targets. 
• Yesterday, the Russian Federation carried out another massive air strike on the territory of Ukraine, using the Shahed attack UAVs. Almost all drones were shot down by our defenders. However, there are victims among the civilian population, private residential buildings, and other civil and administrative infrastructure have been damaged. 
• In general, during the past day, the enemy carried out 64 air and 1 missile strike, and launched 88 attacks using multiple launcher rocket systems. The probability of launching missile and air strikes throughout the territory of Ukraine remains high. 
• On the Sivershchyna and Slobozhanshchyna fronts, deployed mortar and artillery to attack the settlements of Khrinivka, Karpovychi, Yanzhulivka, Leonivka, Chernihiv region; Seredyna-Buda, Fotovyzh, Atynske, Uhroidy, Velyka Pysarivka of the Sumy region. 
• On the Kupiansk front, the enemy carried out airstrikes near Kotliarivka of Kharkiv and Stelmakhivka of Luhansk regions. Kamianka, Novomlynsk, Dvorichna, Zapadne, Kyslivka, Kotliarivka, and Berestove in the Kharkiv region were affected by artillery and mortar fire. 
• On the Lyman front, the enemy carried out airstrikes in the areas of Bilohorivka, Luhansk region, and Yampolivka, Donetsk region. Nevske, Bilohorivka, Luhansk region, and Spirne, Donetsk region, were hit by artillery fire. 
• During the past day, the enemy carried out an air strike in the Vesele area and a missile strike in the New-York area of the Donetsk region. Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, Khromove, Ivanivske, Bila Hora, Pivnichne, Zalizne and New York of the Donetsk region suffered from enemy artillery shelling. 
• On the Avdiivka front, the enemy carried out airstrikes near Avdiivka. Invaders carried artillery fire on Avdiivka, Orlivka, Pervomaiske, and Netailove in the Donetsk region. 
• On the Marinka front, the enemy carried out an airstrike within the Marinka settlement, Heorhiivka and Pobieda of the Donetsk region were subjected to artillery fire. 
• On the Shakhtarsk front, enemy shelled the settlements of Vuhledar, Novoukrainka, Prechystivka, Zolota Nyva, and Shakhtarske. 
• On the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson front, the enemy carried out an airstrike in the Orikhove district of the Zaporizhzhia region, shelled the settlements of Zelene Pole, Novopil, and Temyrivka in the Donetsk region; Olhivske, Huliaipole, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanylivka, Orihiv, Novoandriivka and Stepove of the Zaporizhzhia region; Sadove, Komyshany, Kizomys of the Kherson region, Kherson, as well as the city of Ochakiv of the Mykolaiv region. 

Above: It’s not Luhansk today, but Stanytsia-Luhanska in 2014, when Russia World came for a long unwelcome visit. (Aljazeera)

On the left:  Map via ISW

• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and northwest of Svatove on May 30. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Masyutivka (13km northeast of Kupyansk), Krokhmalne (20km northwest of Svatove), and Novoselivske (15km northwest of Svatove). Russian forces conducted offensive actions near Stelmakhivka (15km northwest of Svatove).
• Russian forces face difficulties in staffing regular units and instead use Chechen Akhmat forces, Cossacks, territorial defense units, Russian Combat Army Reserve and Storm-Z units.
• The invaders continue to impose Russian citizenship on the population in various ways. In particular, in Stanytsia-Luhanska, employees of one state institutions were warned that in June, only those who have re-registered at a Russian bank will be able to receive their salary. 

Above: it’s not from the latest invasion.  It’s Russia World arriving in Donetsk in 2014.  Top: the Donetsk International Airport was constructed in connection with Ukraine’s large national program to build infrastructure for the Euro 2012 football championship co-hosted by Poland and Ukraine.  Bottom: the Donbas Arena was originally built in 2016 to host the Shakhtar football team and got a facelift to host several Euro 2012 games. The airport was one of the first things the invaders destroyed upon arrival.  The stadium was damaged, not closed and disused. Jealousy is never pretty, but Russian jealousy is deadly.  (Photos: Time, The Guardian)

On the left:  Maps via ISW

• The tempo of Russian and Ukrainian offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction remains low as of May 30. Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction on May 30. Russian forces are replacing and regrouping their forces in the Bakhmut direction, and Ukrainian forces are focusing on other tasks and have not advanced in the northern and southern outskirts of Bakhmut for several days. 
• Ukrainian forces obliterated Wagner Group’s offensive capabilities and Ukrainian strikes against Russian forces inflicted significant casualties – 80 killed and 119 injured as of May 30 – as Wagner forces conducted their relief in place. Only two or three engagements occurred in the Bakhmut direction in recent days. 
• Russian forces made marginal advances amid continued ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on May 30. Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces made marginal advances southwest of Vodyane (7km southwest of Avdiivka) near the E50 highway as of May 29.  Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks near Sieverne (5km west of Avdiivka), Pobieda (5km southwest of Donetsk City), and Novomykhailivka (10km southwest of Donetsk City), and in the city of Marinka (on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City). Russian forces conducted 12 ground attacks in the Avdiivka direction and 12 attacks in the Marinka direction in the past day. Russian “Storm” and “Storm-Z” units are mainly storming Marinka.

Above:  It’s not Crimea this invader tourist season. It’s a little green man in Crimea 2014. Read about the West’s underreaction to the 2014 invasion in The Guardian’s real time coverage.  While we are grateful that the West has changed its response to the latest Moscovite invasion, we want them to understand that Moscovia hasn’t changed much since Ivan the Terrible. (Foreign Affairs)

• Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks along the southern axis on May 30. Russian forces are conducting defensive operations in the southern operational direction in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Russian forces continued to conduct regular indirect fire against Ukrainian-held settlements across the southern frontline.
• Ukrainian forces struck objects along the southern axis. Zaporizhzhia occupation officials claimed on May 30 that Ukrainian forces are striking roads and bridges in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast and struck the road connecting Russian-occupied Vasylivka and Dniprorudne. Ukrainian forces struck Mykhailivka (about 45km north of Melitopol) on May 30.  Ukrainian forces struck Mykhailivka on May 29 and 30. Geolocated images posted on May 29 reportedly show damage from a Ukrainian HIMARS strike against a parking lot with Russian cars in Mykhailivka. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian-occupied building in Yurivka (on the coast of the Sea of Azov, about 30km west of Mariupol).
• In the temporarily occupied Yalta, Crimea, the Russian occupation authorities are illegally seizing real estate from Ukrainian citizens who did not accept Russian citizenship during the occupation of the peninsula. Invaders troops are moving into confiscated properties.