Victory Chronicles-DAY 595

Russian occupying forces have stepped up their activities near several settlements on the Avdiivka front, launching attacks on the Kupiansk, Lyman and Bakhmut fronts, with a total of 108 combat engagements taking place on the contact line over the past 24 hours, which is significantly more than has been recorded daily lately.

“108 combat engagements occurred over the past 24 hours. In the area of responsibility of the Tavriia Operational Strategic Group on the Avdiivka front, the Russians, consisting of up to three battalions supported by tanks and armored vehicles, intensified their offensive near the settlements of Avdiivka, Tonenke, Keramik and Pervomaiske in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian Defence Forces repelled all enemy attacks and avoided losing their frontiers and positions” reported General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Rheinmetall to produce 150,000 shells for Ukraine. On Tuesday, October 10, the German arms group Rheinmetall announced another order from the German Armed Forces to supply more than 150,000 artillery shells intended for Ukraine.

The order is the third within the framework agreement for supplying 155-mm artillery ammunition, which Rheinmetall concluded in July. The agreement, which will be valid until 2029, provides for supplies worth about EUR 1.2 billion.

Vitalii Barabash, the head of the Avdiivka City Military Administration, has said that since 06:00 on the morning of October 10, Russian troops have launched massive strikes on Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast: “Since 06:00, [there has been] dense fire from tanks, tubed artillery and Grads (multiple launch rocket systems). Heavy fighting continues north of the city.” As he said, there is currently no information about civilian casualties.

Every day, the crews of the attack drones of the 103rd separate territorial defense brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine track down and inflict losses on the occupiers. Thanks to the professional actions of the fighters, the brigade’s list of achievements has recently included destroyed enemy BRDMs, UAZs, and BMPs.

Russian forces launched localized offensive operations in the Avdiivka area of Donetsk Oblast and southwest of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 9, which are likely intended to fix Ukrainian forces away from the Robotyne area. 

Russian forces intensified offensive operations northwest of Avdiivka near Ocheretyne, Tonenke, and Berdychi and southwest of Avdiivka on the Vodyane-Opytne line. Russian forces also attacked southwest of Orikhiv on the Pyatykhatky-Zherebyanky line, and Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced up two kilometers in the area. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed up to three Russian battalions conducted an attack in the Avdiivka direction, and ISW has observed footage of fighting in the area, but ISW has not observed any confirmation of these claimed Russian advances as of this writing.

Russian milbloggers are largely portraying the Avdiivka-area operations as a significant offensive effort aimed at encircling the Ukrainian force grouping in Avdiivka and capturing the city. A successful encirclement of Avdiivka, one of the most heavily fortified areas of the Donetsk Oblast front line, would very likely require more forces than Russia has currently dedicated to the Avdiivka-Donetsk City effort. Russian forces have largely deployed irregular forces along this frontline, primarily elements of the 1st Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Army Corps and additional volunteer formations that have largely suffered from poor and abusive command culture and tensions with regular Russian units.

ISW has observed no recent Russian deployments to this line. Russian forces have also conducted grinding offensive operations for relatively minimal territorial gains near Avdiivka for the past year and a half of the war, and the Russian military command is likely aware that an effort to capture Avdiivka would require more and higher-quality units than those currently deployed in the area.

The increased Russian offensive operations in the Avdiivka and Zherebyanky areas coincide with other localized offensive efforts in Luhansk Oblast and eastern Zaporizhia Oblast, all likely aimed at fixing Ukrainian forces and preventing Ukrainian command from transferring reserves to critical areas of the front in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Ukrainian officials have made a number of statements within the past few weeks to this effect, particularly noting that Russian attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line are meant to prevent Ukrainians from transferring forces to Zaporizhia Oblast.

Ukrainian defender Serhii Myroshnychenko died on August 3, 2023, while performing a combat mission near the town of Mariinka in Donetsk Oblast. The warrior will be 32 forever. Serhii was born in the village of Obody, Sumy Oblast. He finished school there. Then, he received a degree in electric welding at the Sumy Vocational School №16. He lived and worked in Sumy. 

During the full-scale war, the man voluntarily mobilized into the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He served in the 79th separate airborne assault brigade. He trained in Zhytomyr Oblast and the UK, became a rifleman, and defended Donetsk Oblast. “Serhii is a great man who will never leave anyone in trouble and will always help everyone,” said his sister Olha. The paratrooper was buried on the Alley of Glory at Baranivka Cemetery in Sumy. Serhii is survived by his parents, sister, relatives and friends. 

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