Victory Chronicles-DAY 643

According to a report from The Wall Street Journal, Ukraine is expected to face a difficult year in terms of defense, with its position on the battlefield potentially changing as early as winter. Yet, despite Russia’s military, political, and economic advantages, it is unlikely to achieve major victories. 

The article suggests that Kyiv should focus on improving the mobilization and training of its troops, shifting from offensive operations to strengthening defense lines and abandoning unrealistic goals of fully restoring Ukraine’s international borders. Western confusion and Russia’s commitment to the war indicate this will be a challenging year of defense for Ukraine. 

However, the Russian army’s limited offensive capabilities suggest small victories rather than breakthroughs. While Russia has material advantages, it is unlikely to achieve its political goals of subjugating Ukraine. The article emphasizes the need for Ukraine to make the right choices and receive Western support to improve its prospects for success.

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the State Emergency Service has successfully neutralized over 458,000 explosive devices, including 3,130 aircraft bombs. A total of 2,892 kilograms of explosives have been defused, and an area of more than 110,445 hectares has been cleared. The pyrotechnic units of the State Emergency Service have been particularly active in the Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Cherkasy Oblasts. The State Emergency Service emphasizes the importance of reporting any explosives or suspicious objects immediately by contacting 101.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has published a photo report on the training of infantrymen of the 93rd brigade “Kholodny Yar.” “Infantry is tireless guardians of freedom, embodying courage and steadfastness. Their work is a high standard of commitment that requires the highest level of training and readiness. Every step, every moment, is a test where the nation’s security hangs in the balance. Combat infantrymen have a vital responsibility to maintain peace and security. They are ready to become a shield in the face of danger and face the most difficult challenges to protect their fellow citizens. Their work is not just service; it is sacrificial devotion and true heroism,” the 93rd Brigade’s Public Affairs Department said in a statement.

Fighters of the attack aircraft company of the 12th Azov Special Forces Brigade of the National Guard destroy enemy armored vehicles. The video of the National Guard units inflicting losses in manpower and equipment on the enemy was published by the Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs, Ihor Klymenko. “Over the past week, the National Guard destroyed 23 tanks, 30 armored combat vehicles, 25 vehicles, 16 anti-aircraft missile systems, 19 artillery systems and one electronic warfare system. Also, 5 ammunition depots and 19 occupants’ dugouts were destroyed,” Klymenko said in a statement.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and several Russian milbloggers stated that Russia must maintain active operations in Ukraine and expressed worry over the prospect of further Western military support to Ukraine, though some milbloggers additionally expressed increased discontent with the perceived lack of articulated Russian war aims and stated Russia must clarify its war aims before discussing any pause or end to the war. 

Lavrov claimed on November 27 that the West is currently trying to “freeze” the war to gain time and rearm Ukraine for future attacks on Russia. Several Russian milbloggers similarly claimed that any “truce” or pause in the war will only benefit Ukraine and allow Ukrainian forces to rest, refit, and relaunch offensive operations.

One prominent critical milblogger claimed that a pause in the war will allow Ukraine to conduct a “Minsk-3,” alluding to the previous Minsk agreements that temporarily paused large-scale combat operations in eastern Ukraine in 2014 and 2015 but ultimately allowed Russia to prepare for the full-scale invasion in 2022. The critical milblogger also observed that any discussions regarding pauses or negotiations in the war will be particularly harmful to Russia because Russia has failed to clearly define war aims or conditions necessary for a Russian victory.

The milblogger noted that the lack of a clear definition for victory has caused internal destabilization within Russia. Other Russian milbloggers noted that Ukraine still controls several territories that Russia has claimed to have (illegally) annexed, arguing that Russia should not see any negotiations until or unless Russia can capture the rest of the four occupied oblasts (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts), as well as Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts. Renewed discussion of hypothetical negotiations underlined Russia’s lack of clearly articulated war aims and are causing significant anxiety in the pro-war Russian information space. 

Oleksandr Bardakov, a paratrooper, died at the age of 35 during a battle with occupiers near the village of Bilohorivka in the Luhansk Oblast. Originally from Mozhniakivka, Luhansk Oblast, Bardakov graduated from Luhansk National Agrarian University in 2013, specializing in construction. 

He settled in Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast, where he worked as a chief specialist in the design and technical department of the Department of Capital Construction and Prospective Development. Bardakov was a devoted family man, a loving husband, and a caring father to his daughter. He dedicated his free time to his family and activities such as fishing, tennis, and football. In the early days of the war, Bardakov enlisted in the Air Assault Forces and fought as part of the 81st separate airmobile brigade. 

“Oleksandr was our best friend, colleague, and just a good person. He was always polite and open. Our team has lost a very professional specialist and friend,” said Svitlana Danileichenko, a colleague of the deceased. He was recognized for his bravery with the Order “For Courage” of the III degree and posthumously received the Order “For Courage” of the II degree. Colleagues remembered Bardakov as a professional and friendly individual. He was laid to rest in the Alley of Heroes at the Ivanivka Cemetery near Kramatorsk, leaving behind his wife, daughter, relatives, friends, and fighters-in-arms.

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• Czech president warns that if Western support for Ukraine lessens, next year will be more favorable for Russia
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