Victory Chronicles-DAY 749

On March 12, the United States is expected to announce a military aid package to Ukraine that will include long-range ATACMS missiles with a range of up to 160 km. 

Politico writes that the package is worth $300 million, financed from the Pentagon’s $4 billion budget allocated for arms transfers to Ukraine. Additional rounds for howitzers and GMRL missiles will be included. 

However, this aid package is seen as a temporary solution, not an alternative to long-term assistance. This is the first step toward military support since December 2023, as Republicans in the US Congress have been blocking additional funding for Ukraine. The aid package has been delayed due to disagreements between Democrats and Republicans over managing Ukraine’s border with Mexico. 

The Senate passed the supplemental funding bill, but House Speaker Mike Johnson blocked it until the federal government funding issues were resolved.

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The Czech Republic has committed to purchasing 300,000 artillery shells for Ukraine, and they have also received preliminary approval to purchase an additional 200,000 shells that can be bought by countries that have joined the initiative. The Czech Prime Minister, Petr Fiala, announced that 18 countries, including Canada, Germany, the Netherlands, and Poland, have joined the Czech initiative to purchase ammunition from third countries. Fiala sees this as a significant success, showcasing the Czech Republic’s active role in European security policy and its ability to utilize its advantages. He further mentioned that the Czech Republic has already supplied Ukraine with over a million pieces of large-caliber ammunition in the past two years.

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Ukraine is embarking on mass production of robotic ground platforms that can perform various functions such as kamikaze drones, remote-controlled turrets, mining and demining platforms, and evacuation vehicles. Over 50 systems have already been tested at the Brave1 military technology development cluster created by the Ukrainian government. These platforms have undergone successful testing for tasks like destroying Russian positions and equipment, evacuating the wounded, and delivering ammunition to positions. Mykhailo Fedorov, the Vice Prime Minister for Innovation and Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine believes that ground robotic systems will be a game-changer in the ongoing war. He sees them as an asymmetric response to the enemy’s numerical superiority. The Armed Forces of Ukraine currently have more than 140 Brave1 robotic systems in service, with 96 passing defense expertise and 14 codified by NATO standards. These systems are expected to be deployed in a few months.

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A residential building in Sumy was attacked by enemy unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), causing severe damage. The State Emergency Service (SES) promptly responded to the incident and initiated efforts to address the consequences of the attack. The SES conducted inspections, extinguished the resulting fire, and undertook search operations. Thanks to the use of specialized equipment and tools, they were able to rescue 10 individuals, including 5 who were trapped under rubble and 8 who suffered injuries. In order to support the affected population, an “Unbreakable Point” has been established by the SES to provide warmth and assistance with daily issues. 

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The New York Times (NYT) reported that Russian and Ukrainian forces have differential advantages and disadvantages in their electronic warfare (EW) capabilities. NYT reported on March 12 that Russian forces have more EW equipment but that Russian EW capabilities are spread out unevenly along the front and that Russian armored vehicles are vulnerable to Ukrainian drone strikes due to their lack of mounted EW equipment.

The NYT stated that Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) has adopted a “top down” approach to drone production with “heavy military oversight” that has made Russian drones “predictable” and lacking variety. This lack of variation has reportedly made it easier for Russian units to coordinate their drones’ flight paths and jammers so that they can jam Ukrainian drones without jamming their own. ISW has previously reported that the effectiveness of Russian EW systems is inconsistent across the front.

Russian milbloggers have routinely complained about Russian forces’ lack of EW systems in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast, for example. Russian milbloggers have also recently criticized the Russian military command’s failure to properly equip Russian forces with drones and EW systems after an unsuccessful Russian mechanized assault near Novomykhailivka, Donetsk Oblast.

The NYT noted that Ukraine’s DIB, on the other hand, has allowed non-military companies to fund and supply drones to Ukrainian forces, which has allowed Ukrainian drone units to test different technologies, procurement processes, and combat missions on the battlefield. The NYT reported that a Ukrainian sergeant commanding a drone platoon stated that Ukrainian and Russian forces are engaged in a “constant arms race” in which one side improves its drone technology, forcing the other side to find a new way to combat this improvement.

ISW has also previously reported that Ukraine has over 200 companies (most of which are privately owned) producing various drones for the Ukrainian military as of October 2023.

Moscow Duma Deputy Andrei Medvedev recently stated that Russia has opted to mass produce drones, leading to the production of large numbers of drones that lack the technological adaptations needed to compete with Ukrainian drones.

 Medvedev noted that Ukrainian forces are constantly improving their drones. ISW has observed how recent Russian drone and missile strike packages are also characteristic of the constant air domain offense-defense innovation-adaptation race in which Russia and Ukraine are engaged.

Ukrainian and Russian capabilities will likely vary across space and over time as one side will be unlikely to gain a decisive advantage across the entire frontline or permanently in one sector of the front. There will likely be opportunities to take advantage of these shifting variations.

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36-year-old fighter Yurii Mayevskyi, with the call sign Povodyr, died on March 17, 2023 near the village of Vodiane, Donetsk Oblast. While performing a combat mission, the warrior was fatally wounded by enemy artillery fire. 

Yurii was from the city of Khmelnytskyi. He studied at school №18. At the age of 10, he joined Plast. After school, he studied at Khmelnytsky National University, where he majored in two fields, “Accounting and Auditing and Chemical and Environmental Control and Production Management. He graduated with honors as a chemical engineer and process engineer. Since 2008, he has worked at Ecotest PE. Since 2019, he has been the head of the wastewater treatment plant at Protein Iinvest LLC. In his spare time, he liked to read books, especially historical ones.

From the first days of the full-scale invasion, the man, who had no military experience, decided to defend his homeland. At first, he served in the Avangard volunteer unit. In August 2022, he joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine and became a fighter of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade named after Prince Volodymyr Monomakh.

“My beloved is a Hero, a fighter of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, brave, courageous, and a true patriot of his country. Yurchyk was the best husband, father and friend, kind, sensitive, honest, sincere, fair, a man of word and deed. His fighters-in-arms called him “mommy” because he took care of everyone,” Natalia Mayevska said. The defender is buried on the Alley of Glory in the Rakove neighborhood of his hometown. Yurii is survived by his wife and son. 

*Yuriy’s story on the Heroes Memorial – a platform for stories about the fallen defenders of Ukraine.

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• Zelenskyy announces increase in number of border troops
• Ukrainian defense industry company successfully tests Novator armored car
• Ukrainian intelligence’s drone attack halts operation of Russian Novoshakhtinsk Refinery
• FT: EU set to agree on €5 billion top-up of Peace Facility to help Ukraine with weapons
• US National Security advisor on new aid package for Ukraine: It’s not enough