Victory Chronicles-DAY 901

Ukrainian fighters are reportedly digging trenches in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, indicating their intention to remain in the area, according to Forbes. 

Ukrainians and Russians are fortifying their positions, suggesting a static war along the existing front line. However, this does not mean the Ukrainian advance has halted or the Russians cannot counterattack. The focus now seems to be on stabilizing the front line and securing the long-term presence of Ukrainian forces in part of the Kursk Oblast. A Russian propagandist noted the Ukrainian troops’ trench-digging activities, calling it a concerning development that could make it difficult to dislodge them from the Oblastn. Ukrainian sources also assert the presence of industrial facilities and resources in the area. These developments indicate a potential shift in the conflict dynamics as both sides dig in and prepare for a prolonged presence in the Kursk Oblast.

Approximately 19,800 civilians have been evacuated from the Sumy Oblast in Ukraine, including 2,000 children. The evacuation was announced on August 6 for 23 settlements, resulting in the relocation of about 3,800 individuals, including 175 children. This evacuation is part of a larger effort that began a year ago, aiming to protect civilians by evacuating 115 settlements within the five-kilometer zone. The evacuation process is ongoing, with mandatory and compulsory evacuations being announced in areas where the situation is deemed most dangerous. Specifically, the Seredyno-Budska community of the Shostka district and the Velykopysarivska community of the Okhtyrka district are currently targeted for forced evacuation, prioritizing the safety of children. It is noted that the majority of migration is occurring within the Sumy Oblast itself.

The UK Ministry of Defense has released satellite images showing the extent of the damage caused by Russia in the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. During the Russian offensive to capture Bakhmut, there was intense fighting and random attacks on buildings, resulting in widespread destruction throughout the city. Schools, railway stations, residential buildings, and other civilian infrastructure were damaged or destroyed. The images show a school and a complex of apartment buildings among the structures affected by the Russian attacks. 

The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine released a video showing border guards of the “Revenge” unit destroying an enemy MT-12 “Rapier” cannon and an occupant’s UAV control center in the Bakhmut sector. The fighters also destroyed a military truck and eliminated 2 invaders, 1 was wounded.

The Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast and further possible Ukrainian cross-border incursions force a decision point on the Kremlin and the Russian military command about whether to view the thousand-kilometer-long international border with northeastern Ukraine as a legitimate frontline that Russia must defend instead of a dormant area of the theater as they have treated it since Fall 2022. 

Moscow’s response may require the Russian military command to consider the manpower and materiel requirements for defending the international border as part of its theater-wide campaign design and can therefore impose long-term operational planning constraints that Russia previously did not face. The Russian military command has essentially treated the international border with northeastern Ukraine as the dormant front of the theater following the Russian withdrawal from Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy oblasts in Spring 2022 and the Ukrainian liberation of significant territory in Kharkiv Oblast in Fall 2022. Russian and Ukrainian forces have conducted routine sabotage and reconnaissance activities, indirect fire, and cross-border strikes along the border since Fall 2022, but none of this routine activity has appeared to generate wider Russian operational concerns for defending Russian territory in the area. Russia has sought to use the threat of cross-border incursions to draw and fix Ukrainian forces along the border by concentrating rear elements in the border zone, but Ukrainian concentrations in the area do not appear to have generated such responses among Russian forces.

The Russian military activated part of this “dormant frontline” when it launched the offensive operation into northern Kharkiv Oblast in early May 2024 — a Russian effort to extend the frontline further into northeastern Ukraine to draw and fix Ukrainian forces along the border in hopes of weakening the overall Ukrainian frontline in aggregate.

Previous notable incursions into Russia did not change the Kremlin’s perception of the international border area, but the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast will force the Kremlin to make a decision. All Russian pro-Ukrainian forces have conducted several cross-border raids into Russia since Fall 2022, but the Kremlin and the Russian military command resisted calls for redeploying forces to protect the border at that time. Russian President Vladimir Putin assessed at that time that those limited raids posed no medium- to long-term threat to Russian territory and that redeployments to the international border would be a less effective allocation of resources that could otherwise support large-scale defensive and offensive operations in Ukraine.

The current Ukrainian incursion, however, poses significant threats to Russian military operations in Ukraine and Putin’s regime stability and demands a response. The Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast will likely expand the Kremlin’s consideration for what type of Ukrainian operations are possible along the border. Russia’s prolonged treatment of the international border area as a dormant frontline is a strategic failure of imagination.

Senior Lieutenant Andrii Kharkiv, with the call sign Hornet, died on August 15, 2023, during assault operations near the village of Robotyno, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The officer was 25 forever.

Andrii was born in the village of Kulykiv, Lviv Oblast. From 2015 to 2019, he studied at the Ivan Franko National University of Lviv, Faculty of Chemistry. After that, he was enlisted in the military under a contract. He served until 2021. Then, he worked in private security.

From the first days of the full-scale invasion, the man did not hesitate to defend Ukraine. He served in the 116th separate mechanized brigade. He commanded a platoon. He was awarded the “Honor and Glory” distinction.

“Always smiling and confident. He always had an answer to all questions: “Who else but me?”, “What will I tell my children?”, “God’s will is everything”. When the war broke out, he knew right away that he would defend his country to the last! He dreamed of a happy family life. We dreamed about many things, prepared for the wedding. He was an incredibly kind and happy person who appreciated this life and the people in it… In his village, his grandfather was a beekeeper, kept apiaries. That’s why Andriy chose the call sign Hornet. He wanted something to remind him of home, because it means “hornet”. He compared his character to hornets because they are relatively non-aggressive towards people and animals, and only defend themselves in self-defense. He died a hero. The one he was all his life! He saved the lives of his comrades at the cost of his own. Because they were his family. He could not do otherwise. If he had lost them, he would never have forgiven himself!” said Lyudmyla Horodna, the officer’s fiancée.

Andrii was buried in his native village. He is survived by his parents Svitlana Petrivna and Vasyl Volodymyrovych, brother Taras, fiancée, uncle, grandparents, and grandparents. 

*Andrii’s story on the Heroes Memorial – a platform for stories about the fallen defenders of Ukraine.

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