Victory Chronicles-DAY 966

President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, presented his “Victory Plan” in the Verkhovna Rada and stated that if implemented now, the war could be ended by 2025. 

Zelenskyy emphasized the urgency of the plan and highlighted its detailed deadlines. He expressed confidence in the plan’s feasibility and stated that its success depends on Ukraine’s partners. Zelenskyy mentioned that Russia’s involvement is not crucial as they do not desire an honest peace. He noted that Putin has lost touch with reality and is fixated on war. Zelenskyy stated that it is up to Ukraine and its partners to change the circumstances and create conditions that will force Russia to seek peace. The President’s speech highlighted the importance of taking immediate action and implementing the Victory Plan to resolve the war by next year.

According to the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, the country’s Armed Forces have destroyed 144 Russian artillery brigades, totaling approximately $8 billion, in the first nine months of 2024. This amounts to a total of 10,373 Russian artillery systems destroyed between January and October. The most significant destruction occurred on 22 September, when Ukrainian defenders destroyed 81 enemy artillery pieces. The destroyed equipment, including self-propelled guns, howitzers, and cannons, is considered one of the most expensive scrap metals in the world due to its high cost and lost utility. The Ministry of Defence highlighted that Russia could have used these funds to address domestic social needs, such as constructing modern sports arenas or healthcare facilities. 

According to a police report, Russians attacked six settlements in the Donetsk region, including the cities of Kostiantynivka and Selydove, as well as the villages of Ivanopillia, Ostrovske, Svitlo, and Stepanivka. As a result, 24 residential buildings and a total of 40 civilian objects were damaged. In the city of Kostiantynivka, a FAB-250 bomb with a UMPK module and artillery were used, causing injuries to a civilian. Additionally, in the village of Svitne, two hits were recorded, resulting in one person wounded. Another person was injured in the village of Selydove. The police have documented these attacks and their consequences.

The French Defense Minister has showcased the successful test of their kamikaze drones, which will be sent to Ukraine. These drones are remote-controlled munitions that can be used in military operations. The test demonstrated the effectiveness of the drone in combat situations. The Defense Minister highlighted that developing such technology is crucial for regaining sovereignty over critical segments of military operations. It is expected that deliveries of these drones to Ukraine, as well as its deployment by the French forces, will take place in the coming weeks. 

The Kremlin is likely leveraging the recent June 2024 Russia-North Korea comprehensive strategic partnership agreement in part to offset Russian force generation and border security requirements—further cementing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s commitment to avoiding mobilization for as long as possible. Ukrainian outlets Suspilne and Liga reported on October 15, citing anonymous military intelligence sources, that the Russian 11th Airborne (VDV) Brigade is forming a 3,000-person “battalion” staffed by North Korean citizens (the numerical strength is far beyond a battalion’s). 

Ukrainian intelligence sources assessed that the “battalion” will likely be involved in ongoing Russian defensive operations in Kursk Oblast and reported that up to 18 North Korean soldiers have already deserted their positions in Bryansk and Kursk oblasts before the unit has been committed to combat operations. ISW cannot independently confirm the veracity of these reports, but Russian officials notably did not deny them on October 15. Putin submitted the text of the Russia-North Korea comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, which both countries signed in June 2024, to the Russian State Duma for ratification on October 14.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized in a comment to Kremlin newswire TASS that the Russia-North Korea agreement is “unambiguous” in its provision of “mutual defense and security cooperation.” The Kremlin is likely using the “mutual defense” provision of the agreement to provide the legal justification for the deployment of North Korean soldiers to the combat zone in Russia in response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast. ISW has recently observed reports that a small contingent of North Korean personnel was operating near occupied Donetsk City.

Beyond the legal justification, however, the Kremlin’s willingness to enter into a mutual defense agreement with North Korea, resulting in the reported commitment of North Korean personnel into combat operations in Russia, highlights Putin’s continued reliance on pursuing alternative force generation avenues instead of committing to declaring partial or general mobilization. ISW has reported at length on Putin’s continued reliance on crypto-mobilization and the formation of new volunteer formations to avoid the domestic ramifications of conducting a society-wide general mobilization or another partial mobilization wave.

This dilemma has become particularly acute for Putin since Ukraine’s August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion, as the Russian military had to reckon with new manpower requirements introduced by the need to defend an entirely new front within Russia itself. Putin’s response to the Kursk incursion has been consistent with his handling of Russian force generation throughout the war thus far, however, and he has maintained his unwillingness to counter the incursion more seriously with a wider mobilization, instead focusing on the ad hoc creation of new territorial defense units, the redeployment of existing units from Ukraine, and the use of conscripts.

The use of North Korean personnel under the mutual defense clause of the Russia-North Korea agreement is part of the same wider effort. Putin appears more willing to absorb North Korean personnel into the Russian military and resort to other irregular force generation efforts than to call for a wider mobilization to actually address the combat situation in the theater of operations.

Senior fighter Yurii Moroz died on 18 May 2024, defending Ukraine near Vovchansk, Kharkiv region. 

Yurii was 41 years old. He was born in the village of Oleksandrivka, in the Kherson region. In civilian life, for ten years, he worked for Ukrzaliznytsia at the Darnytsia carriage depot, where he was a 5th-category carriage inspector and repairer. He dreamed of building a house and living in it with his family. 

In April 2021, he began contract service in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. During the full-scale invasion, he defended his homeland as part of the 57th Separate Motorised Infantry Brigade, named after Kosh Ataman Kostiantyn Hordiienko. He held the position of a mortar operator.

‘We knew him as a very good and sensitive person. He never refused to help others,’ said his railway colleagues.

The fighter’s funeral service was held in the town of Vyshneve in the Kyiv region, and he was buried in the Alley of Heroes at the cemetery in the village of Sofiyivska Borshchahivka. Yurii is survived by his wife, daughter, and parents. 

*Yurii’s story on the Heroes Memorial – a platform for stories about the fallen defenders of Ukraine.

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