Victory Chronicles
-DAY 99

Above: Lysychansk during the 2014 war. The city sits atop a high-elevation ridge west of the Siversky Donets River. It was founded by Ukrainian Kosaks in the 17th century but was destroyed by Moscovia several times to put down Kosak rebellions against autocratic Russian rule.  Photo via Wikimedia Commons

• Luhansk Governor Serhiy Haidai said Russian forces have taken eighty percent of Severodonetsk. Just across the Siversky Donets River, Ukrainian forces are heavily fortified in Lysychansk.  Last week, the enemy destroyed the bridge connecting Lysychansk and Severodonetsk for a second time – the first in 2014.
• Around Popasa to the southwest, Ukrainian intelligence reports heavy depletion of enemy forces including personnel and equipment.  Ukraine expects all available enemy replacements to be funneled to Popasna and Avdiivka.  (Read more)

Above: Beskyd tunnel after reconstruction. A single-track tunnel was built by the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1886, replaced by a double-track tunnel in 2018. Photo via Google Maps

• Overnight, Russia sent cruise missiles for the second time into the Carpathian mountains in Lviv oblast, not far from the border with Slovakia.  The attack is an effort to destroy rail lines to Europe days after the US and UK announced provision of multiple rocket launch systems.  The target of attacks is the Beskyd tunnel, reconstructed and reopened in 2018, connecting Lviv with Vienna. The tunnel is a major cargo transportation link between Ukraine and Europe.

Above: Grain shipment facilities in Mykolaiv. Ukraine has attracted billions in domestic and foreign investment in grain storage and shipment.  Photo via Aggrowth

• Russia continues to blockade the Black Sea preventing Ukraine from exporting millions of tons of grain.  In addition to the great economic loss to Ukraine, the blockade could cause starvation in many third-world countries.  So far, democratic countries have been unable to make any progress on ending the blockade, with or without Russian cooperation.

 

Above: Southern Ukrainian command soldiers remove a mine from beaches near Odesa. Russia has placed up to 600 minies in Ukraine’s exclusive Black Sea economic zone, many of which are floating into the waters of Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey.  Photo via TCH

• Yesterday, US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley told reporters that Russia has heavily mined the waters around Odesa and continues to patrol off the coast, so that a military approach would be high-risk and require significant levels of effort. The US Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith said she didn’t see a place for NATO to intervene and that Russia seems disinterested and not negotiating in good faith.  Putin has said that Russia would export grain and fertilizer if sanctions are lifted.

Above: British MLR systems are on the way.  Photo via Ukrinform

• The United Kingdom will join the US in sending “medium-range” multiple rocket launch systems to Ukraine with a limited range of 80 kilometers (50 miles).   The UK reached agreement with the US to send the US Lockheed-Martin-manufactured M270 systems within a few weeks. The UK will train trainers on the use of the equipment in the UK.