Diane Francis: Three scenarios for the war’s development in Ukraine

February 22,2024 811
Diane Francis: Three scenarios for the war’s development in Ukraine

There are three possible scenarios for the development of events in Ukraine in 2024, according to Diane Francis, Editor-at-Large at the National Post, columnist at Kyiv Post, and Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, Eurasia Center, author, publisher on Substack.

The first scenario is that Russia’s war against Ukraine will transform into a frozen conflict. “If military aid is rejected by the House on February 28, when it convenes, then Europe must make up the difference. But if this does not happen, the war will become a “frozen conflict” because a ceasefire will be necessary and Putin will not negotiate in good faith. The result will be borders will freeze, six million displaced Ukrainians will remain abroad, and it will be difficult to rebuild the country,” the journalist says.

Another possible scenario is that Ukraine will initiate a new counteroffensive if Europe fills the aid gap left by the United States. “This appears more likely than ever. Denmark just announced it will donate all its artillery and ammunition to Ukraine, and indications are that others may do the same. France has doubled its security budget and Germany is revamping its industrial base to create a military industrial sector as soon as possible. All NATO members are dramatically increasing their military budgets and this month the European Union will release a plan to quickly finance and expedite military expansion and collaboration in countries across the continent,” Diane Francis writes. 

The third scenario is that Ukraine will secure the necessary funding and money this year and be able to push Russia out of its territory by 2025. “It should use this year [2024] to hold off and concentrate on a new push in 2025 with F16s and more weapons,” writes Wall Street Journal chief foreign correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov. “By imposing an asymmetrical war that relies on domestically produced naval drones and missiles, and that targets Russian ships in their own home bases, Ukraine has eroded much of Russia’s vaunted naval superiority,” Diane Francis quotes.

The outcome of the war also depends on the presidential elections in the United States, underlines Francis. “Trump promises to cut off funding of Ukraine to quickly stop the war wherever it is at that point. Biden will stay the course if he and Democrats win.”

Regardless of which scenario unfolds, the journalist believes Russia has no long-term future. “[Russia has been] been gutted by Ukraine, and Europe has been awakened. … Europe heads toward becoming a self-sufficient military powerhouse. Economically, the European Union is as big as China, and the United States is one-third larger than either.

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