Diane Francis: Ukraine is already a de facto NATO member

by Diane Francis, Editor-at-Large at the National Post, columnist at the Kyiv Post, Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, Eurasia Center and author, publisher on Substack

Source: Francis’s speech at the conference “Safeguarding Ukraine’s Future: Security Guarantees & Demining for Ukraine’s Recovery & Reconstruction,” reports Ukrainska Pravda 

I’m going to speak with you for about 20 minutes and share a bit about my relationship with Ukraine, how I became a defender of this country, and also some thoughts on what lies ahead.

I want to say that we are definitely closer to the end of this war than the beginning, and I hope Ukraine remains intact and takes its place among the most dynamic economies in Europe.

My first encounter with Ukraine came thanks to my Ukrainian friend Bob Onyschuk, whom many of you probably know as a Toronto-based lawyer. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Bob told me, “You have to go to Ukraine.” My newspaper sent me with a photographer for 20 weeks throughout the dissolving Soviet Union to tell Canadian readers what the outcome would be.

So I went to Ukraine for a week — and that was it. I got stuck there. I was the first Western journalist to interview President Kravchuk, the first president of independent Ukraine, a wonderful gentleman. Bob translated that interview. We looked at each other and said, “Oh my God.” I told Bob, “He’s great. I think he’s a good man, but he’s like an orphan. He knows nothing about capitalism, nothing about democracy. We have to do something to help.”

So Bob and I founded the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce in the spring of 1991. We sponsored trade missions back and forth and watched the country struggle with capitalism and democracy. Since 1991, it’s been a battle.

Then around 1995, Bob and I became partners in a Kyiv financial newspaper, which one day was simply stolen by Ukrainian oligarchs — thugs with baseball bats. They took over our paper, intimidated our editor, and he had to leave the country with his family.

I said, “Enough. They need to get their act together. I’m not interested — this is just another rotten, corrupt country.”

But then the Orange Revolution happened, and that’s when I saw, “Wow, this is the biggest protest and the most powerful civil society in the entire former Soviet Union.” The Belarusians couldn’t do it, the Russians couldn’t do it themselves — it was extraordinary, and we all watched it on TV. It was amazing.

So I went there again. And I got interested again. Ukrainians, through joint efforts and civic pride, were able to overturn corrupt elections that Yanukovych won.

Unfortunately, we know he came back with Russian money and the help of Donald Trump’s associate Paul Manafort, who gave him a second chance and helped him win the presidency again. By doing so, Yanukovych became a full puppet of Putin, dismantled Ukraine’s army — one of the best in the world — and sold weapons purchased for the country’s defense for personal gain to third-world dictators, effectively disarming the country in preparation for its re-occupation by Russia. It was an obvious plan.

This went on and was extremely dangerous, then things declined again: corruption and problems. We saw it firsthand in the chamber because people traveled there, invested in Ukraine, and got hit by dishonest judges or others.

It was a struggle that continued, but civil society and Ukrainian pride — which is very unique — still existed, and in 2014 the Revolution of Dignity happened, which ousted the dictator and led to Putin’s first invasion.

The rise of nationalism, pride, and reforms eventually led to anti-corruption efforts. And in 2019, Ukraine held its first truly free elections, where Zelensky won decisively — thank God. Whatever you think of him, this man is a hero.

So you know that throughout this period, there were people in Ukraine trying to build support for joining NATO. But polls showed people weren’t interested. They felt it would only provoke Russia into harsher actions. However, by 2020, polls clearly showed support for NATO membership in Ukraine. Then, in 2022, the second Russian invasion happened — not by coincidence.

Now we have this war, which has been ongoing since the first invasion in 2014.

NATO is a painful issue for Putin. And yes, Ukraine should be in NATO. But I believe Ukraine is already a de facto NATO member, and that’s okay. NATO is doing everything it can. Within its means, the alliance helps its members individually — some more than others — to help Ukraine defend itself against the Russians as much as possible, which is quite remarkable. And that, of course, is thanks to the Ukrainians, but NATO has been there.

So I believe the main focus in negotiations should be on a ceasefire, then on creating significant security forces that will in a way be a de facto NATO without NATO — which is a huge red flag for Putin. This won’t be part of any agreement, and insisting on it means continuing a grinding war that “burns” youth, resources, and the goodwill Ukraine has around the world and inside the country.

Therefore, I think it’s important to create a security coalition, a “coalition of the willing,” if you will. Europeans see this negatively since it was a term used by George Bush regarding the Kuwait invasion. But whatever you call it, it can’t be called NATO and can’t be part of NATO. All NATO allies can help separately, and now, of course, negotiators and Trump are losing patience. And rightly so — negotiations are stalling and won’t lead to what we all hope for.

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