ILO forecast: Ukraine’s labor market to lose 2.4 million jobs in 2022

October 31,2022 550
ILO forecast: Ukraine’s labor market to lose 2.4 million jobs in 2022

The International Labor Organization in its 11th edition of the ILO Monitor of the World of Work has estimated the impact of the ongoing war in Ukraine on the country’s labor market situation for the year 2022:

“In addition to the terrible humanitarian cost, the war in Ukraine has had a dramatic negative impact on the country’s economy and labor market. The ILO estimates that employment in 2022 will be 15.5 percent (2.4 million jobs) below the 2021, pre-conflict, level. This projection is not as low as the ILO’s estimate in April 2022, soon after the conflict began, that 4.8 million jobs would be lost. The positive change is a consequence of the reduction in the number of areas of Ukraine under occupation or with active hostilities. However, this partial labor market recovery is modest and highly fragile, the Monitor says.

“The large number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees looking for jobs in Ukraine and elsewhere adds to the challenges and is likely to create downward pressure on wages, the report warns.

“The report estimates that 10.4 percent of the country’s total pre-war workforce are now refugees in other countries. This group of 1.6 million is overwhelmingly women, with many having worked previously in the education, health and social care sectors. A recent survey found that, so far, 28 percent of the Ukrainian refugees surveyed had found waged or self-employment in their host countries.

“The effects of the conflict are being felt in neighboring countries’ labor markets which could lead to political and labor market destabilization in these countries. Further away, in Central Asia and globally, they are being reflected in higher and more volatile prices and increased food insecurity and poverty.”

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