The Institute for the Study of War (ISW)’s analysis assumes that Russia might attack Ukraine from Belarus closer to the end of 2023. As the ISW’s recent publication noted, “the most dangerous scenario of a new Russian attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus in early 2023 seems less likely given Russia’s current military activity in Belarus.”
The scenario of an attack from Belarus at the end of 2023 seems more likely.
“The most dangerous course of action (MDCOA) of a new Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus in early 2023 seems less likely given current Russian military activity in Belarus. A new MDCOA of an attack from Belarus in late 2023 seems more likely,” ISW experts note.
According to analysts, Russian officials continue to prepare for a second wave of mobilization. By the fall of 2023, Russia may have completed one or more supplemental drafts into the reserve.
A delayed offensive may also allow the Russian military-industrial complex to produce a significant proportion of the materials needed to provide for the invasion from Belarus.
