Kowal warns Russia will exploit Ukraine’s weakness without firm deterrence

UWC Executive Committee member Zenon Kowal has advised that without strong deterrence, Russia could exploit any weakened Ukrainian position that would emerge from an externally driven peace deal. 

Speaking to Belgian news channel LN24, Kowal said several Western proposals fail to address Ukraine’s core security needs. 

Kowal, who also advises the European Congress of Ukrainians and the Association of Ukrainians in Belgium, stressed that even robust security guarantees may not prevent an aggressive adversary from testing limits. 

“Even with security guarantees, when facing a strong adversary, the temptation to exploit their weakness is always significant. That’s completely logical,” he said.

Kowal criticized the U.S.-proposed peace plan for focusing heavily on financial and political provisions while overlooking Kyiv’s fundamental geopolitical interests.

“It’s almost like a roadmap for capitulation. Trump and Putin have already reached an understanding. Nothing good is in store for Ukraine,” Kowal said.

Kowal also highlighted the specifics of U.S. President Donald Trump’s negotiation tactics.

“First, he makes an agreement with the adversary, then applies maximum pressure on one side to force it to accept what was discussed with the other. It’s initially ‘take it or leave it,’ and later ‘this is just a basis for discussion.’ We are already seeing some evolution in this approach,” he said.

The former United Nations diplomat said that while Ukraine should pursue peace, any decisions about its security must prioritize the country’s own interests.

“Ukraine must work toward peace and end the war in any case. But nothing concerning Ukraine should be decided without Ukraine,” Kowal said.

Previously, UWC President Paul Grod said that a lasting and fair peace is critically necessary, but forcing Ukraine into capitulation is unacceptable.