Lecartev: Russia plans for major troop buildup in Transnistria

Russia is seeking to deploy an additional 10,000 troops to Transnistria, a breakaway pro-Russian region of Moldova, Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean said in an interview with the Financial Times on June 4.

He said the Kremlin aims to install a pro-Kremlin government in Chișinău and is interfering in Moldova’s parliamentary elections scheduled for September to achieve that goal.

Moscow hopes that the upcoming Moldovan government will be more sympathetic to Russia and will allow for a greater deployment of troops in Transnistria, which is landlocked between Ukraine and Moldova and already has 1,500 Russian troops stationed there. 

Since 2022, when Russia launched an all-out war against Ukraine, Russia’s ability to reinforce or rotate troops in Transnistria has become severely constrained. .

“This is a huge effort to undermine Moldovan democracy. They want to consolidate their military presence in the Transnistrian region,” Recean said.

Chișinău considers the presence of Russian troops there illegal and has repeatedly called for their removal. 

“Currently, their forces there are almost meaningless. But with a higher military presence in Transnistria that a Russia-leaning government can allow for, they can consolidate,” Recean said.

The prime minister warned that the presence of 10,000 troops in southwestern Ukraine would have a serious impact and create pressure, particularly given the proximity to Romania, a NATO member.

Russia’s plans are part of a broader Kremlin strategy to create a new hotspot of tension in the region and to destabilise Moldova’s pro-European course, said Dmitrii Lecartev, who chairs the National Congress of Ukrainians in Moldova (NCUM), in a comment to the Ukrainian World Congress (UWC).

“Despite the scale of the threat, its implementation is currently limited by logistics: Russia has no direct access to Transnistria, and Ukrainian control over southern Odesa effectively blocks any attempts at military deployment,” Lecartev said.

At the same time, the Kremlin is betting on internal destabilization — “as we already saw last year during Moldova’s presidential election and referendum, only this time they’ll throw all their resources at it.”

Lecartev continued: “Moldova’s strength lies in the firm stance of its current leadership, an active civil society, and growing support from the EU and the U.S., which are providing Chișinău with political, economic, and security assistance.” .

In this situation, Ukraine can play a key role: by strengthening security along the border with Transnistria, stepping up intelligence sharing with Moldova, and continuing to publicly support its sovereignty.

“If the scenario of installing a pro-Russian government in Moldova begins to unfold, it could seriously destabilize the entire Black Sea region — from opening a new front in southern Ukraine to a complete U-turn in Moldova’s path toward European integration,” the NCUM head said.

In any case, Ukraine and its partners “must act preemptively to prevent yet another staging ground for Russian aggression in Eastern Europe,” Lecartev said.