Pekar: Russia won’t wait for Europe to prepare for its strike

by Valerii Pekar, a Ukrainian futurist, as well as an entrepreneur, well-known public figure and distinguished lecturer at the Kyiv-Mohyla Business School

Source: Pekar on Facebook

What I’m about to tell you, I’ve been sharing for over a year — exclusively behind closed doors with Polish and German experts.

Russia will not wait for Europe to prepare for a Russian strike. European assumptions that Russia will attack around 2030 and there is time to rearm are worthless. Russia will strike at the moment of Europe’s least readiness. A Russian attack is quite likely before the end of this year.

First question: where will they strike? Traditionally, the Baltic countries are seen as the first targets — easier due to their small size and the likelihood of no U.S. intervention — but hitting them won’t achieve Moscow’s strategic goal of knocking Europe out of the game. That goal can only be reached with a strike on Poland. But not through the Suwalki Corridor, where Russia faces strong resistance.

Second question: how will they strike? Poland is actively preparing for World War II (this is not a typo), buying tanks and armored vehicles. They won’t be needed. They won’t even have time to leave the garages. There will be no war like the one in February 2022.

Russian military doctrine involves so-called “liminal warfare,” well described in David Kilcullen’s book Dragons and Snakes. The essence of this approach is using below-threshold methods of warfare that leave the opponent confused — unable to decide whether to respond yet or not, and if so, how and to whom. By the time a decision is made, it’s already too late because everything is over.

Now imagine an attack on Poland combining:

• Massive missile and drone strikes targeting energy facilities, infrastructure, and logistics (drones could be painted in yellow and blue with slogans like “this is for spilled Ukrainian grain”);
• Cyberattacks on government and infrastructure systems;
• Navigation collapse caused by large-scale electronic warfare;
• Sabotage and terrorist groups; sudden ecological and industrial disasters;
• Social unrest fueled by social media in an already heated society;
• Exploitation of “useful idiots” from fringe political parties;
• Thousands of refugees from the Middle East fleeing west through Belarus, some possibly armed.

The first effect will be a nationwide blackout lasting weeks, not hours. The second will be government collapse. The third will be ten million Polish refugees fleeing to Germany, causing governance collapse there as well. Then the domino effect will spread to Brussels. The goal will be achieved. As a bonus, Ukraine’s supply routes through Poland will be disrupted.

Preparations for such an attack are underway. Recent arson attacks on military equipment in Germany and Belgium, massive blackouts in Spain and the Czech Republic, and a fire at telecommunications networks in Poland — these are all tests to find weak points.

Is it possible to get through to the political leadership of key European countries? Yes, there is some understanding that this scenario is quite likely. But then comes a paralysis of will, easily explained: preparation will cause panic, and panic will crash the markets.

Well, at least we’ll be ready.