by Oleksii Kopytko, Ukrainian military analyst and former adviser to the Ukrainian defense minister
Source: Kopytko on Facebook
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said Ukraine must not cede territory for the sake of peace. Such concessions would send the wrong signal and encourage aggressors. Those are fine words and worth praising. But there’s a problem: they lack follow-through.
Tonight (on Oct. 20–21), in the name of “peace initiatives,” Russia once again struck Kharkiv with upgraded KAB guided bombs. People were injured.
The best way to counter KAB strikes is systematic destruction of Russian airfields within a 300‑kilometer radius — and long‑range air defense systems. Not just ground systems, which Russia will eventually find ways to neutralize, but air‑based defenses: fighter aircraft equipped with the right sensors and missiles.
The EU’s stance on weapons is improving, but painfully slow. Policy decisions remain uncreative. European officials can do better — they just need to be properly motivated.
Consider this: everyone knows about roughly 900 tankers in Russia’s so‑called shadow fleet. They’re visible to all, yet untouched, prowling the Baltic and repeatedly causing trouble. Brussels has floated a curious idea: require host states that flag these vessels to authorize preventive inspections. In short, they want to enter a legally tidy dialog with those who profit from fraud.
That’s a bureaucratic approach: preemptive paperwork and procedural wrangling that will likely lead nowhere. It may preserve diplomatic niceties and shield against legal claims, but at the same time it’s long past time to launch real mechanisms to bring Moscow to its senses.
For example: set an informal but financially painful rule — one KAB strike equals one tanker out of circulation, one missile equals five tankers. If there are civilian casualties, apply a multiplier. No need for fancy subtractions — just straightforward deterrents.
The EU should set up a special environmental inspection unit to selectively board and examine suspected ships for invasive pests and the protection of valuable mollusk stocks. The alleged risks would be dramatic. Ships could be placed in quarantine at the cargo owner’s expense, with all associated fees — for a couple of months or longer if needed. Repeat tests could be required. If no problems are found, release them. If a KAB lands, suddenly ecological risks spike — all handled under transparent European regulations.
A week or two of this, and the covert tanker fleet would be limited to operations in the Far East. China wouldn’t be harmed. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan might be mildly annoyed, but U.S. President Donald Trump has already been lavish with his compliments, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Damordadas Modi was forewarned. If you can’t provide adequate air defense, then bring in the most lethal European weapon available: European bureaucrats. Seriously. Don’t tell me this is a slippery slope to abuse — when Brussels wants to be pragmatic, it is pragmatic. They know how to send simple, comprehensible signals to bad actors. They just don’t always choose to.
Cover: Shutterstock
