According to a Foreign Policy article by Rose Gottemoeller, a diplomat and former NATO deputy secretary-general, and Michael Ryan, a former US deputy assistant defense secretary for European and NATO policy, Ukraine has the potential to secure a tactical advancement on the ground, potentially culminating in both operational and strategic triumphs.
Now, Ukraine is losing the land war despite significant successes in Crimea and the Black Sea. “Indeed, the current conventional wisdom in large parts of the West is that Ukraine is losing the ground war, leaving no pathway to victory for the country as Russia pounds Ukrainian civilians into submission. Kyiv might as well call for a cease-fire and sue for peace,” the authors say.
The defeat of Ukraine will be the defeat of the USA and its allies in Europe and Asia. “It would embolden both Russia and China to pursue their political, economic, and security objectives undeterred – including the seizure of new territory in Eastern Europe and Taiwan,” the experts say.
To gain an advantage over Russia, Ukraine’s Armed Forces need to become “more effective from the air to gain an advantage over Russia.” “For power from the air to be decisive in 2024, the Ukrainian Armed Forces must create temporary windows of localized air superiority in which to mass firepower and maneuver forces,” the analysts write.
Increasing the quantity and quality of weapons is also necessary to implement this scenario, making Ukraine’s Armed Forces more successful on the entire front against Russia. The article’s authors quote the column of the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for The Economist. Valerii Zaluzhnyi wrote that now, the Armed Forces of Ukraine need UAVs that provide real-time reconnaissance, armed UAVs to suppress enemy air defenses, and drones for breakthroughs and mine clearance.
“Zaluzhny has made it publicly clear that “the decisive factor will be not a single new invention, but will come from combining all the technical solutions that already exist,” FP writes.
The United States and Europe should work with Ukrainians “on how to better manage operational complexity and combine technology, information, and tactics in more dynamic ways” to help Ukraine succeed.
However, currently, support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine appears increasingly weak and fragmented, note Gottemoeller and Ryan. The authors call on Ukraine’s partners to strengthen their assistance.
“If Ukraine can achieve the momentum in the ground war that evaded it during its failed summer offensive, Kyiv will have a real pathway to victory. That pathway will run through Ukraine’s demonstrated prowess at sea and in the air, joined to an embrace of a sophisticated combination of techniques on the ground. It will be a pathway to victory not only for Ukraine, but also for the United States and its allies,” Foreign Policy concludes.
Read the full text at the link.
Cover: Sipa US / Alamy Stock Photo
