Victory Chronicles
-DAY 237

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: WAGNER LEADER MAY BE CHALLENGING KREMLIN POWER

Above: ruzzian guard deployed to protect enlistment offices from ‘increased attacks’. (Newsweek)

• Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against residential areas and critical infrastructure throughout Ukraine on October 17.
• The October 17 drone attack on residential infrastructure in Kyiv is consistent with the broader pattern of Russian forces prioritizing creating psychological terror effects on Ukraine over achieving tangible battlefield effects.
• Russia is continuing to leverage its relationship with Iran to obtain drones and missiles, likely to compensate for its increasingly attritted missile arsenal.
• A fratricidal altercation between mobilized servicemen at a training ground in Belgorod Oblast on October 15 is likely a consequence of the Kremlin’s continual reliance on ethnic minority communities to bear the burden of mobilization in the Russian Federation.
• Wagner Group financier Yevheny Prigozhin and Wagner-affiliated social media outlets are increasingly commenting on the ineffectiveness of traditional Russian military institutions and societal issues, which may indirectly undermine the Kremlin’s rule.
• Moscow City officials announced the completion of partial mobilization in the city on October 17, likely in an effort to subdue criticism among Moscow residents of reports of illegal mobilization in the city.
• Moscow City officials will likely continue covert mobilization despite Sobyanin’s announcement. A Russian human rights group activist stated that it is likely that Muscovites will continue to receive mobilization notices because Moscow City has not fulfilled its mobilization quota, but local authorities are unlikely to hunt down men on the streets.
• Russian and occupation administration officials continue to promote “vacation” programs to residents of Russian-occupied territories likely as pretext for the deportation of Ukrainian citizens and the resettlement of Russian citizens.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: enemy fighter jet slams into a residential building on ruzzian territory near the Kerch Strait. (Moscow Times) 

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

• Liquidated personnel, 65,850 (+530)
• Tanks 2,548 (+11)
• Armored personnel vehicles 5,219 (+14)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,622/372 (+23/6)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 188 (+3)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 268/242 (+0/7)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,276 (+35)
• Cruise missiles, 318 (+2)
• Warships/boats, 16 (+1)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 3,985 (+16)
• Special equipment, 144 (+8)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: According to UNICEF, Ukrainian children are the main victims of russian aggression physically, emotionally and economically. (RFERL)

• Violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law, the laws and customs of war, it strikes critical infrastructure and the homes of the civilian population.
• Over the past 24 hours, the enemy launched 10 missile and 58 air strikes, and launched up to 60 MLRS attacks.
• Areas of more than 35 settlements were hit by enemy attacks. In particular, Kyiv and Odesa, Mykolaiv oblasts; Bilohorivka, Terny, Krasnohorivka and Maryinka of the Donetsk oblast; Nova Kamianka and Bilohirka, Kherson oblast. For this, the enemy used cruise, aviation and anti-aircraft guided missiles. In addition, 43 Iranian-made Shahed-136 unmanned aerial vehicles were involved, 38 of which were shot down by Ukrainian soldiers.
• The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly. The threat of missile and airstrikes, as well as the use of “Shahed-136” attack UAVs from the territory of the republic of belarus, remains.
• The enemy fired in other directions:
  • in the Siversky direction – from artillery of various types, in the areas of the settlements of Senkivka of Chernihiv region and Seredyna-Buda and Dmytrivka of Sumy oblast;
  • in the Slobozhanskyi direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Khatnye, Starytsa and Strilecha;
  • in the Kupyansk direction – from mortars, barrel and jet artillery in the areas of Berestove, Hryanikyvka, Dvorichna, Kotlyarivka, Serebryanka and Stelmakhivka settlements;
  • in the Lyman direction – from artillery of various calibres, in the areas of the settlements of Bilohorivka, Hrekivka, Zarichne, Nadiya, Novoyehorivka and Terny. Here the enemy also used shock UAVs;
  • in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions, the enemy inflicted fire damage from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery along the contact line.
• On the Novopavlivskyi and Zaporizhzhia directions, the enemy shelled more than 15 settlements. Among them are Bilohirya, Bohyavlenka, Vuhledar, Malynivka, Orihiv and Shevchenko.
• In the South Buh direction, the occupiers fired at military and civilian infrastructure. Areas of more than 20 settlements along the contact line were damaged by fire. The enemy made more than 30 UAV sorties to conduct aerial reconnaissance.

KHARKIV

Above: Ukrainian artist uses a bullet-pocked wall as his canvas in Kupyansk. (Aljazeera)

Map via ISW

• Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), also reported that Russian forces inflicted air and artillery strikes on the Ukrainian grouping in the Kupyansk area on October 16 and October 17.
• Russian forces additionally continue to reinforce their positions along the Svatove-Kreminna-Lysychansk line and conducted limited ground attacks west of Kreminna in order to regain lost territory between Lyman and Kreminna.

LUHANSK AND DONETSK

Above: Mysterious explosion hit puppet-government offices of Donetsk occupational authority this week. (New York Times)

Map via ISW

• Russian sources continued to discuss potential Ukrainian counteroffensive operations northwest of Svatove on October 16 and 17.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; north of Bakhmut near Bakhmutske (11km northeast of Bakhmut ), Soledar (12km northeast of Bakhmut), Berestove (26km northeast of Bakhmut), and Spirne (30km northeast of Bakhmut); and south of Bakhmut near Mayorsk on October 16 and 17.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin also reportedly stated that Russian speculations about Ukrainian withdrawals were just rumors and that Wagner units continue to fight Ukrainian forces in and around Bakhmut.
• Ukraine’s Eastern Group of Forces spokesperson Serhiy Cherevaty claimed on October 16 that Russian forces have been conducting information operations about Russian forces capturing settlements near Bakhmut and that such Russian claims are not true.

KHERSON AND ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above: Ukrainian technicians repair damage to power infrastructure caused by enemy missile attacks on Zaporizhzhya. (New York Times)

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian military officials maintained operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground maneuvers on October 16 and 17 but generally emphasized that Russian troops in this area are conducting active defense along the entire Kherson Oblast frontline.
• Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that Ukrainian troops continue their interdiction campaign to target Russian military, transportation, and logistics assets and concentration areas throughout Kherson Oblast.
• Geolocated images posted on October 17 show a Russian-constructed barge-bridge across the Dnipro River near the Antonivskyi Bridge, suggesting that Russian troops are continuing to reconstitute river crossings near Kherson City following consistent Ukrainian strikes on the Antonviskyi Bridge.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck Russian manpower and military equipment concentrations near Marfopil, Tokmak, Polohy, Kam’yanka-Dniprov’ska, Melitopol, Berdyansk, Voskresenka, and Vasylivka in Zaporizhia Oblast on October 16 and 17.
• Russian authorities continued measures to exert full control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
• The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on October 16 that Russian authorities are trying to connect the ZNPP to the Russian power grid as quickly as possible.
• The Resistance Center reported that elements of the Chechen Akhmat battalion have deployed equipment and weapons directly in two of the turbine halls at the ZNPP.