UKRAINIAN WORLD CONGRESS

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DAY 245

Victory Chronicles
-DAY 245

October 26,2022

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: RUSSIANS REALLY ARE ZOMBIES; DE-NAZI-FICATION IS NOW DE-SATAN-IZATION

Above: Mobilized enemy troops board a train to go “de-satan-ize” Ukraine. (Euronews)

  • Russian independent polling organization Levada posted survey results on October 25 showing that the number of Russians desiring change has declined despite recent societal stresses introduced by sanctions, mobilization, and the war in Ukraine.
  • Members of the Russian siloviki [strongmen] faction continue to voice their dissatisfaction with Russian war efforts in Ukraine, indicating that Russian President Vladimir Putin will continue to struggle to appease the pro-war constituency in the long term.
  • Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov complained that the Russian response to claimed Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory have been “weak,” noting that Russia must “erase Ukrainian cities from the earth”.
  • Russian siloviki have also directly confronted Putin regarding the progress of the Russian war in Ukraine. US intelligence revealed that Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin sharply criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense.
  • Prigozhin’s influence in the information space is evident through the positive portrayal of Wagner forces, despite their failure to make significant advances in the Bakhmut area. Wagner forces have yet to reach Bakhmut despite fighting there since early summer and are reportedly suffering significant losses.
  • Assistant Secretary to the Russian Security Council Alexei Pavlov amplified statements made by Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov on October 25 that the goal of the war in Ukraine should be “complete de-Satanization”. Pavlov claimed that Ukrainian society is defined by “fanatics” who seek to abandon values held by the Russian Orthodox church, Islam, and Judaism.
  • The Russian military continues to mobilize Russian men—including those from ethnic minority republics—in violation of published Russian recruitment policies. Russia’s military mobilization is causing workers to flee Russia, placing stress on the Russian labor market.
  • Russian independent outlet Verstka reported on October 25 that Russian officials from local Moscow government offices are fleeing Russia en masse to avoid mobilization.
  • Russian occupation officials are struggling to enforce the use of rubles in occupied territories, despite long-standing efforts to conduct rubleization measures. Stremousov reprimanded those who “refuse to accept rubles” in a video address on October 25 and claimed that after the situation in Kherson Oblast stabilizes, those who refuse to use rubles will be forcibly expelled from Kherson Oblast

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Enemy tank dumped in the river is inspected by a Ukrainian defender. (New York Times)

  • Liquidated personnel, 68,900 (+480)
  • Tanks, 2,628 (+17)
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 5,351 (+30)
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,686/379 (+12/2)
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 192 (+2)
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 271/248 (0)
  • UAV operational-tactical level, 1,379 (+7)
  • Cruise missiles, 350 (0)
  • Warships/boats, 16 (0)
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,076 (+22)
  • Special equipment, 149 (0)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Kyiv residents take shelter in Teatralna metro station during daily air raids. (New York Times)

  • Violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law, the laws and customs of war, it continues to strike critical infrastructure and the homes of the civilian population.
  • During the current day, the enemy launched 3 missile and 11 air strikes, carried out more than 25 MLRS from rocket salvo systems.
  • Areas of 25 settlements were hit by enemy attacks. Among them are Nikopol of the Dnipropetrovsk oblast, Bakhmutske and Vuhledar of the Donetsk oblast, and Nova Kamianka in the Kherson oblast.
  • The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly. The republic of belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the russian federation against Ukraine. The threat of missile strikes and the use of attack UAVs on Ukrainian territory remains.
  • The enemy shelled in other directions:
    • in the Siversky direction – from mortars and barrel artillery, within the settlements of Senkivka and Kamianska Sloboda of the Chernihiv oblast and Rozhkovychi, Basivka and Popivka of the Sumy oblast. Used shock UAVs;
    • in the Slobozhanskyi direction – with the use of mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Dvorichna, Krasne, Ohirtseve, and Strilecha;
    • in the Kupyansk direction – from mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, in the areas of Vyshneve, Kislivka and Stelmakhivka settlements;
    • in the Lymanskyi direction – from mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of settlements of Novoyehorivka, Terny, Zarichne and Yampolivka;
    • in the Bakhmut direction – from the armament of tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Bakhmutske, Ivanhrad, Bilohorivka, Mayorsk, Soledar and Opytne;
    • in the Avdiivka direction, the enemy fired tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery at the areas of Avdiivka, Vodyane, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka and Pervomaiske settlements.
  • The enemy did not conduct active offensives in the Novopavlivsk and Zaporizhzhia directions. Fired at the positions of the Defense Forces and civilian infrastructure in the areas of more than 20 settlements along the entire contact line.
  • More than 30 settlements were affected by fire in the Southern Buh direction. The russian occupiers continue to mine areas along the coastline of the Dnipro River. They are trying to restore the affected pontoon-bridge crossings. To conduct aerial reconnaissance, the enemy made up to 55 sorties of UAVs of various types.

KHARKIV

Above: Fishing in Kharkiv. (New York Times)

Map via ISW
  • Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai noted that Russian troops mined the entire bank of the Krasna River near Svatove, apparently in anticipation of potential Ukrainian advances.

LUHANSK AND DONETSK

Above: A drone reconnaissance unit of territorial defense forces on patrol in Donetsk Oblast.  (New York Times)

Map via ISW
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults on Bakhmut itself; northeast of Bakhmut near Bakhmutske (11km northeast of Bakhmut), Soledar (13km northeast of Bakhmut), Bilohorivka (23km northeast of Bakhmut), Verkhnokamianske (33km northeast of Bakhmut), and Spirne (30km north of Bakhmut); and south of Bakhmut near Ivanhrad (4km southeast of Bakhmut) and Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).
  • The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attack on Bilohorivka, about 10km south of Kreminna, suggesting that Russian troops are continuing efforts to retake lost positions along the Donetsk-Luhansk Oblast border.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks southwest of Avdiivka near Mariinka (28km southwest of Avdiivka) and Nevelske (15km south of Avdiivka).
  • The Donetsk Peoples Republic (DNR) People’s Militia announced on October 25 that the “battle for Avdiivka is in full swing” and Russian forces intend to encircle Avdiivka. Russian forces are unlikely to encircle Avdiivka given the poor performance of Russian offensives near Avdiivka since the beginning of the war. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian operational encirclements of Avdiivka and Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast are impossible as recent Russian offensives in the areas illustrate that Russian forces are unable to make rapid advances.
  • In the temporarily occupied settlement of Khrustalnyi, Luhansk oblast, “mobile groups” detain and transport all men to the military commissariat. According to available information, another batch of prisoners came from russia to Stanytsia Luhanska to replenish units of private military campaigns.
  • As a result of point strikes by the artillery of the Defense Forces, up to 30 occupants were eliminated in the settlement of Kayiry, Kherson oblast, and more than a hundred enemy servicemen remained under the rubble. [This is the site of the Kadyrovite headquarters]

KHERSON AND ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above: Ukrainian sappers move in on recently liberated land in Kherson Oblast.  (Euractiv)

Map via ISW
  • Russian occupation officials continued to indicate that efforts to “evacuate” civilians in Kherson Oblast to the east bank of Dnipro River are part of a wider resettlement scheme. Kherson occupation deputy Kirill Stremousov claimed on October 25 that occupation officials have moved over 22,000 people from the west bank of the Dnipro to the east bank and that the administration’s “resettlement program” (программа переселения) is designed to accommodate 60,000 people.
  • Russian occupation officials continued to move personnel, equipment, and occupation assets to the east bank of the Dnipro River on October 25. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian officials are continuing to move bank equipment and personnel and occupation administrators, as well as civilians, across the Dnipro River to Henichesk and Skadovsk, 175km and 60km southeast of Kherson City, respectively.
  • Stremousov’s statement seemingly admits that Russian occupation officials view the evacuations as precursors to the permanent resettlement of a large population of Ukrainians. It is unclear where Russian officials intend to “resettle” those who move from the west bank. The implication of a permanent program designed to resettle Ukrainians in other Russian-occupied territories, and even within Russia itself, may amount to a violation of international law.
  • Russian forces continued to establish fallback positions near the Dnipro River on October 25. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are preparing defensive positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River and are mining the coastline near Hornostaivka, about 40km northeast of Nova Kakhovka.
  • To replenish the losses in the Zaporizhzhya region, another batch of russian servicemen has arrived in the settlement of Vovkivka, who are chaotically moving through the streets, looking for food and an opportunity to wash among the local population.

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