UKRAINIAN WORLD CONGRESS

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DAY 247

Victory Chronicles
-DAY 247

October 28,2022

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS:

Above: LiveUAMap russian bombing last 24 hours.  Six Iranian drones sent to Kyiv overnight

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to reject the idea of Ukrainian sovereignty in a way that is fundamentally incompatible with serious negotiations.
  • A senior Russian official threatened that Russia could target Western commercial satellites supporting Ukraine. US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby stated that the United States will meet any attack on US infrastructure “with a response.”
  • The Russian military sent notices to approximately 26 Uzbek workers at a waste management plant in Oryol Oblast who are not legally subject to military mobilization since they are not Russian citizens. The Embassy of Uzbekistan in Moscow issued a statement claiming that the mobilization summonses were due to a “technical error” and stated that the summonses were nullified after contact with the Russian military commissariat.
  • Wagner Group may be further developing its air warfare capabilities and fielding more complex equipment on par with the conventional Russian military. Wagner Group is not known for independently operating combat aircraft, but it could begin to do so as the Russian military grows increasingly reliant on Wagner forces. Russian sources and the BBC confirmed the existence of at least one Wagner aviation detachment that flew Su-25 aircraft operating in eastern Ukraine in May 2022.
  • Wagner Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin confirmed a Ukrainian intelligence report that the Wagner Group is recruiting prisoners with HIV and Hepatitis C to fight in Ukraine on October 27. Prigozhin stated that there are no Russian legal restrictions against patients with Hepatitis C or HIV and stated, “I don’t see anything immoral if soldiers carrying hepatitis C and HIV kill other soldiers without knowing whether they were carriers of any viruses during their lifetime.”
  • The Russian military’s lack of contact with Russian forces in Ukraine is degrading Russian morale and force generating efforts. A Russian milblogger reported that mass hysteria and negative coverage about Russian mobilized soldiers would not exist if Russian commanders clearly knew more about the status of their men in Ukraine.
  • The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on October 27 that Russian occupation officials began to “massively” seize residents’ cell phones in Russian-occupied territories to look for subscriptions to Ukrainian media and social media channels.
  • The republic of belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the russian federation against Ukraine, providing its territory, airspace and infrastructure. There is still a threat of missile and air strikes, including the use of attack UAVs.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: War on the Rocks

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses for last 24 hours

  • Liquidated personnel, 69,700 (+480)
  • Tanks, 2,640 (+9)
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 5,378 (+14)
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,698/379 (+8/0)
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 192 (0)
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 272/251 (+1/2)
  • UAV operational-tactical level, 1,401 (+3)
  • Cruise missiles, 351 (0)
  • Warships/boats, 16 (0)
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,088 (+10)
  • Special equipment, 151 (+1)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Local resident salvages debris from enemy missile attacks in Zaporizhzhya city. (Telegraph)

  • The enemy shelled:
    • in the Slobozhanskyi direction – from the territory of the russian federation, using different types of artillery, in the areas of Chuhunivka, Strilecha, Dvorichna, Kamianka, Krasne, Starytsa settlements;
    • in the Kupyansk direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, in the areas of Berestov, Kislivka and Figolivka settlements;
    • in the Lyman direction – from tanks and artillery of various calibers, in the areas of Makiivka, Terny, Torske, Yampolivka, Spirne, Nevske and Zarichne settlements;
    • in the Bakhmut direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, in the areas of Andriivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Kramatorsk, Soledar and Yakovlivka settlements;
    • in the Avdiivka direction, the enemy inflicted fire damage from mortars, barrel and rocket artillery in the areas of Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, and Pervomaiske.
  • On the Novopavlivskyi and Zaporizhzhia a directions, the enemy launched artillery fire in the areas of Bilohirya, Vremivka, Zaliznychne, Novopol, Novosilka, Olhivskyi, and Orihiv.
  • Areas of more than 15 settlements near the contact line were affected by fire in the South Buh direction.

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Ukrainian National Guardsman sits in the back of a pickup truck in Kharkiv Oblast. (Telegraph)

Map via ISW
  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast and along the Kreminna-Lysychansk line.
  • Russian milbloggers circulated footage of Russian forces firing a TOS-1 thermobaric multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) at Ukrainian positions reportedly in the direction of the Svatove-Kreminna highway which may indicate either that Russian forces are allocating higher-level artillery systems to this area due to an intent to prioritize operations in this area, or that Russian forces lack sufficient artillery systems or ammunition more appropriate for standard fire missions on the Svatove-Kreminna axis.

LUHANSK-DONETSK

Above: Civilians receive bread at humanitarian aid distribution center in heavily bombed Kramatorsk, Donetsk. (Voice of America)

Map via ISW
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults on Bakhmut, northeast of Bakhmut near Soledar (13km northeast of Bakhmut), and south of Bakhmut near Ivanhrad (4km south of Bakhmut) and Mayorsk.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks southwest of Avdiivka near Krasnohorivka (23km southwest of Avdiivka) and Mariinka (28km southwest of Avdiivka).
  • Social media sources reported that Ukrainian forces struck fuel tankers at a railway station in Shakhtarsk, Donetsk Oblast with HIMARS MLRS missiles.
  • According to preliminary information, a significant part of the weapons and military equipment that the occupiers sent to the Donetsk and Novopavliv directions are of limited or completely unsuitable for combat use. In particular, we are talking about T-62 tanks removed from long-term storage.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above: Enemy bombing has destroyed public water system in Mykolaiv city.  Residents must collect water on a daily basis.  (New York Times)

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces are continuing to make defensive preparations along the east bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
  • Ukrainian and Russian sources continued to indicate on October 27 that Ukrainian forces are conducting an interdiction campaign to target Russian concentration areas and military assets in Kherson Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian strikes destroyed a Russian concentration area and ammunition depot around Beryslav.
  • Ukrainian forces may have conducted a drone attack on a critical infrastructure facility in Russian-occupied Crimea on October 27. Russian-occupied Sevastopol governor Mikhail Razvozhaev claimed that likely Ukrainian actors conducted a drone attack against the Balaklava thermal power plant in Crimea on October 27.
  • Zaporizhia occupation deputy Vladimir Rogov stated on October 27 that occupation law enforcement officers in Russian-occupied Zaporizhia Oblast began selective checks of residents’ cellphones to look for those who subscribe to Ukrainian social media channels perceived to be associated with the Ukrainian government. Rogov also stated that residents violating the prohibition on subscription to “propaganda resources of the terrorist Kyiv regime” will receive formal warnings and then fines.
  • The lack of warm clothes led to an increase in the number of cases of theft and looting by servicemen of the armed forces of the russian federation in the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson oblast.
  • The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on October 27 that Chechen elements are increasing checks and raids in Russian-occupied Zaporizhia Oblast to look for suspected military deserters but to also confiscate and loot residents’ property.

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