UKRAINIAN WORLD CONGRESS

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DAY 253

Victory Chronicles
-DAY 253

November 3,2022

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: KREMLIN RHETORIC DIVORCED FROM REALITY

Above: LiveUAMap enemy shelling in last 24 hours

  • Russian force generation efforts combined with Western sanctions are having long-term damaging effects on the Russian economy. The Kremlin will face a budget deficit that will “drain Moscow’s reserves to their lowest level in years” due to projected decreases in energy revenue, sanctions, and the cost of Russian mobilization.
  • Russian officials have been promising salaries to volunteers and mobilized men that are more than twice the average Russian civilian salary before and during Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin has been attempting to deflect part of the cost of the force generation effort onto Russian federal subjects but will likely need to tap into the federal budget more heavily soon.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin’s calls for a competitive Russian military industry are divorced from the reality of Russian supply chain and defense industrial base issues. Russia has likely negotiated the weapon shipments with Iran and North Korea because it has significantly depleted its stock of munitions in air, missile, and artillery strikes over the course of the war in Ukraine and cannot readily restock them.
  • Russian and Belarusian officials continue to highlight bilateral defense cooperation between Russia and Belarus as a means of perpetuating the long-standing information operation that Belarus will enter the war in Ukraine on behalf of Russia. Belarus’ entry into the war remains highly unlikely, as ISW has previously assessed.
  • Russian occupation authorities continued to forcibly relocate Kherson Oblast residents, nationalize Ukrainian enterprises in occupied territory, and forcibly deport Ukrainian children to Russia.
  • Russian forces exploited recent evacuation and “nationalization” measures to engage in widespread looting in Russian-occupied territories on November 2. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on November 2 that Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast are looting Ukrainian firms on an industrial scale.
  • Russian and occupation officials continue to illegally deport Ukrainian children with the intent to commit crimes that may constitute an act of genocide as of November 2. The Ukrainian government portal Children of War reported that as of November 2 Russian officials have deported almost 10,000 Ukrainian Children to the Russian Federation.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: The Telegraph

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses for last 24 hours

  • Liquidated personnel, 74,000 +730
  • Tanks, 2,734 +20
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 5,552 +27
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,755/390 +22/3
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 198 (0)
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 277/258 (0)
  • UAV operational-tactical level 1442 +4
  • Cruise missiles, 397 (0)
  • Warships/boats, 16 (0)
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,162 +9
  • Special equipment, 155 +1

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Prudyanka, Kharkiv. (New York Times)

  • The enemy continues to strike critical infrastructure facilities and civilian homes, violating international humanitarian law, laws and customs of war.
  • Over the past 24 hours, the enemy has launched 3 missile and 24 air strikes, launched more than 80 MLRS attacks.
  • Areas of more than 20 settlements were hit by the russian occupiers. Among them are Kupyansk in the Kharkiv oblast, Kremenchuk in the Poltava oblast, Nevske in the Luhansk oblast, Vodyane, Vuhledar, Krasnohorivka and Nevelske in the Donetsk oblast, Smila in the Cherkasy oblast, Nova Kamianka in the Kherson oblast, and Ternovi Pody in the Mykolaiv oblast.
  • The threat of new strikes and the use of attack UAVs remains, in particular from the territory of the republic of belarus.
  • The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly. The republic of belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the russian federation against Ukraine.
  • The enemy shelled in such directions:
    • in the Siversky direction – from mortars and barrel artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Orlykivka and Muravyi in the Chernihiv oblast and Vilna Sloboda, Zapsillia and Kharkivka in the Sumy oblast;
    • in the Slobozhansk direction – from mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Alisivka, Ambarne, Aniskine, Hatyshche, Hlyboke, Zelene, Kozacha Lopan, Krasne, Mala Vovcha, Morokhovets, Ohirtseve, Okhrimivka, Sosnivka, Starytsa, Strilecha and Khrypuny Kharkiv oblast;
    • in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions – from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Berestove, Dvorichna, Kamianka, Krokhmalne and Fiholivka in the Kharkiv oblast, Hrekivka, Nevske, Ploshanka and Sukhodil in the Luhansk oblast and Terny and Yampolivka in the Donetsk oblast;
    • in the Bakhmut direction – from tanks and artillery of various calibers, in the areas of Andriivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Zelenopillia, Mayorsk, New York, Opytne, Rozdolivka, Siversk, Soledar and Spirne settlements of the Donetsk oblast;
    • in the Avdiyivka direction – from tanks and the entire range of artillery weapons, in the areas of Kamianka, Maryinka, Nevelske, Novomykhailivka and Pervomaiske settlements of the Donetsk oblast;
    • in the Novopavlivskyi direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, in the areas of Bohoyavlenka, Velyka Novosilka, Vremivka, Vuhledar, Novopil and Pavlivka settlements of the Donetsk oblast;
    • in the Zaporizhia direction – from tanks and artillery of various types, in the areas of the settlements of Dorozhnyanka, Mala Tokmachka, Malynivka, Novoandriivka, Pavlivka, Stepove and Shcherbaky of the Zaporizhzhia oblast.
    • In the South Buh direction, more than 30 settlements along the contact line suffered fire damage.

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Checkpoint near Kupyansk.  (New York Times)

Map via ISW
  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations in the directions of Svatove and Kreminna, and Russian forces conducted offensive operations to constrain Ukrainian forces.
  • A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are attempting to reach Chervonopopivka to cut the highway between Kreminna and Svatove.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults in the direction of Kreminna near Makiivka, Nevske (18km west of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna).

LUHANSK-DONETSK

Above: Dolyna, Donetsk. (New York Times)

Map via ISW

  • Russian forces continued to conduct ground assaults near Bakhmut and Donetsk City.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on November 2. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Pervomaiske (20km northwest of Donetsk City) and Novomykhailivka (25km southwest of Donetsk City).
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops conducted ground attacks near Pavlivka (45km southwest of Donetsk City), Vodyane (35km southwest of Donetsk City), and Prechystivka (55km southwest of Donetsk).
  • The Ukrainian General Staff also notably reported that Russian troops attacked Ukrainian infrastructure facilities with missiles and Iranian Shahed-136s in Vuhledar (56km southwest of Donetsk City) and Vodyane at night on November 2.[46] This is the first confirmation of Iranian Shahed-136 use in the Vuhledar area.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above: Zaporizhzhya. (New York Times)

Map via ISW

  • Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reiterated that Russian troops are trying to hold occupied positions and are conducting defensive actions. Social media users reported that Russian troops are placing prefabricated concrete “pillboxes“ (a concrete defensive structure with firing holes for small arms and artillery systems) in Hola Prystan (10km south of Kherson City on the east bank of the Dnipro River).
  • Advisor to the Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Head, Serhiy Khlan, also reported that Russian troops in Kakhovka are setting up DZOTs (long-term camouflaged firing points) and other fortifications within urban areas of Kakhovka.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that Ukrainian troops destroyed a Russian Pantsir-1 anti-aircraft missile system and other military equipment in Muzykivka (3km north of Kherson City) on October 29 and that Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions near Snihurivka on October 30 (45km northeast of Kherson City).[35]
  • Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that Ukrainian strikes destroyed Russian equipment and personnel in the Beryslav Raion and as far south as the Henichesk Raion, which borders Russian-occupied Crimea.[36]
  • Kherson City residents posted footage and imagery of the reported aftermath of a Ukrainian strike near the Antonivsky Bridge, which Russian milbloggers claimed was conducted with HIMARS.[37]
  • Russian officials announced that occupation authorities began integrating the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) into the jurisdiction of Russian nuclear power plant operator Rosenergoatom on November 2.Ukraine’s Energoatom stated on October 28 that only 100 of the 6,700 Ukrainian personnel remaining at the ZNPP plant have signed new contracts with the Russian energy agency Rosatom (out of 11,000 personnel before February 24).
  • Ukrainian and Russian officials announced on November 2 that ZNPP personnel transferred reactors 5 and 6 of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to a hot shutdown state to generate steam to restore heat and hot water to Enerhodar.

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