UKRAINIAN WORLD CONGRESS

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DAY 258

War Chronicles
-DAY 258

November 8,2022

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS:

Above: LiveUAMap russian artillery attacks in last 24 hours. 

CHILD ABDUCTIONS:

  • Russian and occupation officials continue to abduct Ukrainian children as of November 7. Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Commissioner head Olena Vikhor reported on November that Russian occupation officials have sent 6,032 Ukrainian children to Russian-occupied territories and the Russian Federation.
  • The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian occupation officials have moved over 300 children from Luhansk Oblast in the first week of November alone. The Resistance Center reported that Russian and occupation officials sent 100 Ukrainian children to St. Petersburg for “rehabilitation”; another 92 to Novosibirsk, Leningrad, and Tyumen oblasts to be adopted out to Russian families; and over 100 Ukrainian children from Bryanka to Bryansk for “educational” purposes.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported on November 7 that Russian occupation officials relocated about 100 children with disabilities from a psychoneurological boarding house in Dniproany, Kherson Oblast.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Russian occupation officials are planning to relocate children from the Oleshkiv Children’s Boarding Home in Kherson Oblast to Moscow Oblast.
  • RU MILBLOGGERS PRESSURE MOSCOW: Russian milbloggers published and circulated a letter that claimed Russian military leadership “threw” the brigade into an “incomprehensible offensive” near Pavlivka, Donetsk Oblast, where it suffered losses amounting to over 300 killed, wounded, and missing and lost half of its equipment, all within four days.
  • The Russian MoD issued a rare response on November 7 to the outcry on and claimed that less than one percent of the brigade was killed and less than seven percent was wounded within the past 10 days, and that Ukrainian forces suffered high losses instead.

SOLDIERS FROM PARTIAL MOBILIZATION SUFFERING HIGH CASUALTIES

  • Russian military personnel’s wives and mothers advocating for their relatives serving in the military by reaching out to local officials and prominent Russian milbloggers since the beginning of partial mobilization in late September. The Russian MoD’s failure to properly address these systemic issues and their root causes will likely exacerbate these societal tensions throughout the war.
  • Putin has noted that up to 80,000 mobilized personnel have entered the combat zone as of November 7, with 50,000 operating within combat units.
  • Russian forces have greatly depleted their arsenal of high-precision weapons systems and have suffered significant aviation losses and will likely struggle to maintain the current pace of the Russian military’s coordinated campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure.
  • Putin signed a decree on November 7 increasing the staffing of the Russian prosecutor’s office by 3,000 prosecutors, of which 400 are military prosecutors. The decree is likely associated with Putin’s previous prosecutor staffing increases to punish military commissariats for poor execution of the partial mobilization rollout.
  • Russian forces are also experiencing high casualty rates among mobilized men on the frontlines. One mobilized man who had survived on the Kreminna-Svatove frontline reported that over 500 mobilized personnel from Voronezh Oblast died as a result of Ukrainian shelling on their positions in Makiivka, Luhansk Oblast.
  • Russian forces are continuing to subject newly mobilized men to poor living conditions that are leaving many men demoralized or sick or both. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian units in Belarus are mostly composed of newly mobilized men who live in field tents without proper sanitary conditions.
  • Belarusian doctors are reportedly overwhelmed with the number of ill mobilized servicemen, prompting Russian forces to deploy additional medical units to the Belarusian training grounds. The GUR added that regular Russian servicemen live in normal conditions and noted that there is an increasing number of ethnically charged conflicts between Belarusian and Russian servicemen.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Ukrinform

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses for last 24 hours

  • Liquidated personnel, 77,170 (+710)
  • Tanks, 2,786 (+15)
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 5,654 (+24)
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,791/391 (+9/0)
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 203 (+1)
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 278/260 (+1/0)
  • UAV operational-tactical level, 1,476 (+4)
  • Cruise missiles, 399 (0)
  • Warships/boats, 16 (0)
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,216 (+17)
  • Special equipment, 159 (+2)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: First responders at bombed residential building in recently liberated Lyman, Donetsk. (CBC)

  • The enemy continues to strike critical infrastructure and civilian homes in violation of International Humanitarian Law, the laws and customs of war.
  • During the day, the enemy launched 4 missile and 12 air strikes, carried out more than 14 MLRS attacks.
  • Areas of about 10 settlements of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson oblasts were hit by the russian occupiers.
  • The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly. The republic of belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the russian federation against Ukraine, providing it with military infrastructure, territory and airspace. The transfer of units of the armed forces of the russian federation to the territory of the republic of belarus to create a joint russian-belarusian group of troops is underway.
  • There is still a threat of enemy strikes and the use of attack UAVs from the territory and airspace of the republic of belarus.
  • The enemy shelled in other directions:
    • in the Slobozhansky direction – from tanks, mortars, rocket and barrel artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Uda, Vysoka Yaruga, Strilecha, Ohirtseve, Hatishche, Starytsa, Vovchansk, Dvorichanske, Chuhunivka, and Dvorichna;
    • on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions – from artillery of various types, in the areas of the settlements of Kislivka, Kotlyarivka, Krokhmalne, Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka, Myasozharivka, Andriivka, Nevske, Serebryanka, Verkhnyokamianske and Spirne;
    • in the Bakhmut direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Opytne, Mayorsk, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanivka and Mayorsk;
    • in the Avdiivka direction – from tanks and the entire spectrum of artillery, in the areas of Avdiivka, Heorgiivka, Maryinka, Paraskoviivka, Novomykhailivka and Elyzavetivka settlements;
    • in the Novopavlivsk direction – from tanks and various caliber artillery, in the areas of Vugledar, Pavlivka, Vremivka, Novosilka, and Novopol;
    • in the Zaporizhzhia direction – from mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of settlements of Olhivske, Chervone, Hulyaipole, Dorozhnianka, Hulyaipilske, Charivne and Novodanylivka.
    • In the direction of Yuzhnobuzka, settlements near the contact line are subjected to shelling from the entire spectrum of artillery. In particular, Illinka from the Dnipropetrovsk region was hit by fire from an anti-aircraft missile.

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Ukrainian forces near russian border in Kharkiv Oblast. (DW)

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces likely continued efforts to fix Ukrainian troops on the international border in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast by conducting minor cross-border attacks on November 6. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on November 6 that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack on Zybyne, a settlement in northern Kharkiv Oblast about 3km south of the Russian border.
  • Russia forces conducted limited counterattacks to regain lost positions west of Kreminna on November 6 and 7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian assaults in the direction of Yampolivka (17km west of Kreminna) on November 6 and in the direction of Yampil (18km southwest of Kreminna) on November 7.

LUHANSK-DONETSK

Above: russia’s elite Wagner mercenaries have tried to take Bakhmut for months. (New York Times)

Map via ISW
  • Several Russian milbloggers claimed the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) 6th Cossack Regiment and Wagner Group forces entered Bilohorivka after months of heavy fighting along the Donetsk-Luhansk Oblast border and that fighting is continuing in residential areas of the settlement.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults within a 26km radius northeast of Bakhmut near Bakhmutske, Berestove, and Yakovlivka and within a 20km radius south of Bakhmut near Andriivka, Mayorsk, Ozarianivka, and Opytne on November 6 and 7. A Russian milblogger claimed on November 6 that Wagner PMC elements are attacking in the direction of Bakhmut from three directions: near Klishchiivka south of Bakhmut, near Ivanhrad southeast of Bakhmut, and on the eastern city limits of Bakhmut.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on November 6 and 7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults within a 27km radius south of Avdiivka near Makiivka, Marinka, and Krasnohorivka on November 6 and 7.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast on November 6 and 7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Pavlivka and Novomyhailivka, Donetsk Oblast on November 6 and 7. A Russian source claimed that Russian forces are experiencing a dilemma in the Pavlivka area in which they must withdraw exhausted units but do not have available fresh units to replace them.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above: Their home in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk, since July. (CBC)

Map via ISW
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported on November 6 that residents on the west bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast have been receiving SMS messages warning them of future massive Ukrainian shelling and urging them to evacuate to the east bank. The Ukrainian General Staff also reported on November 7 that Russian propagandists are planning to film in Kherson City to show the Ukrainian forces’ alleged destruction of the civilian population, which will likely be used as part of an information operation to support ongoing forcible evacuation measures in Kherson Oblast.
  • Kherson occupation deputy Kirill Stremousov stated that November 7 will be the last day of organized evacuations from the west bank of the Dnipro River.
  • Russian authorities consolidated control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) amid continued Ukrainian raids in the area on November 6.
  • The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on November 6 that Russian occupation authorities at the ZNPP tried to blackmail Ukrainian ZNPP employees into signing Russian contracts, which require accepting Russian Federation citizenship, by the end of November. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that these Russian contracts will require Ukrainian ZNPP employees to disperse to nuclear power plants throughout the territory of the Russian Federation.

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