UKRAINIAN WORLD CONGRESS

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DAY 260

War Chronicles
-DAY 260

November 10,2022

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: ENEMY PLANS A FIGHTING WITHDRAWAL FROM NORTHERN KHERSON OBLAST

Above: The Guardian 

  • The battle of Kherson is not over, but Russian forces have entered a new phase—prioritizing withdrawing their forces across the river in good order and delaying Ukrainian forces, rather than seeking to halt the Ukrainian counteroffensive entirely.
  • The Russian information space predictably reacted to the announcement of the withdrawal with varying degrees of ire and concern. Russian sources also emphasized that this is a major defeat for Russian forces because they are losing territory that Russia annexed and claims as its own.
  • Many prominent voices in the milblogger space sided with enemy command and lauded the decision as a necessary one, indicating that Russian leadership has learned from the information effects of the disastrous Russian withdrawal from Kharkiv Oblast in mid-September. Wagner Group financier Prigozhin voiced his support for the withdrawal  as did Chechen leader Kadyrov.
  • Damage to the Kerch Strait Bridge continues to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to southern Ukraine. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (MoD) assessed that the Kerch Strait Bridge is unlikely to be operational until at least September 2023, reducing Russia’s ability to move military equipment and personnel by rail and road.
  • Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko reported that Russian forces are moving columns of fuel takers to supply Russian positions on the left (east) bank of Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast through Mariupol due to the damages to the Kerch Strait Bridge. Disrupted logistics via the Kerch Strait Bridge also likely contributed to Russia’s decision to withdraw forces from the west bank of Kherson Oblast.
  • The Republic of Belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, accepts and hosts Russian servicemen, and provides training grounds. The formation of a joint Russian-Belarusian grouping of troops is underway.

CONTINUED MOBILIZATION PROBLEMS

“A Russian recruit speaks to his son before boarding a train at a station in the country’s Volgograd region.” (Photo: AP via The Guardian)
  • Russian federal subjects are facing significant challenges delivering promised payments to mobilized personnel and their families, which will likely further degrade the Russian economy and ignite social tensions.
  • Russian governors are attempting to appease the families of mobilized personnel in the short term by offering a fraction of the promised payments. Voronezh Oblast Governor Alexander Gusev, for example, noted that relatives of mobilized soldiers living below the poverty line will receive a one-time payment of 11,832 rubles (about $193).
  • Caucasusian Knot reported that relatives of mobilized men from a town in Kuban Oblast received firewood from the government instead of a promised 100,000 rubles (about $1,620).
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces undergoing training in Baranovichi, Brest Oblast, in Belarus are receiving obsolete helmets from World War II and body armor from the 1960s and 1970s.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff added that a large part of provided small arms do not work due to poor storage conditions. Mobilized from Oryol Oblast recorded video appeals to Governor Andrey Klychov showing faulty equipment like faulty knives, cheap flashlights, poor-quality backpacks, and uncomfortable boots.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Freepik

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses for last 24 hours

  • Liquidated personnel, 78,690 (+740)
  • Tanks, 2,804 (+3)
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 5,682 (+16)
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,805/393 (+3/0)
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 205 (0)
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 278/260 (0)
  • UAV operational-tactical level, 1,499 (+16)
  • Cruise missiles, 399 (0)
  • Warships/boats, 16 (0)
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,242 (+15)
  • Special equipment, 159 (0)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Associated Press

  • The enemy continues to strike critical infrastructure and civilian homes in violation of International Humanitarian Law, the laws and customs of war.
  • Over the past day, the enemy launched 11 missile and 22 air strikes, launched more than 35 attacks from multiple rocket systems. More than 30 settlements of Donetsk, Luhansk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhya, Mykolaiv, Sumy and Kherson regions were affected by this.
  • The threat of enemy strikes and the use of attack UAVs from the territory and airspace of the Republic of Belarus remains.
  • In other directions, the enemy carried out shelling:
    • in the Siverskyi direction – from barrel and rocket artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Hasychivka in the Chernihiv region and Popivka, Petrushivka, Myropillya, Zapsillia, Nova Huta, Novovasylivka, and Starikove in the Sumy region;
    • in the Slobozhansk direction – from artillery of various types, in the areas of Hryhorivka, Kolodyazne, Strelecha, Vovchansk, Ohirtseve and Ternova settlements;
    • in the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions – from mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Ploshanka, Berestov, Stelmakhivka, Myasozharivka, Spirne, Bilogorivka, Makiivka, Nevske, and Kislivka;
    • in the Bakhmut direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Soledar, Ivangrad, Yakovlivka, Mayorsk, Zelenopilya and New York;
    • in the Avdiyiv direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, in the areas of Vugledar, Nevelske, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, Krasnohorivka and Vesele settlements;
    • in the Novopavlivskyi and Zaporizhzhya directions – from tanks and the entire spectrum of artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Prechistivka, Velyka Novosilka, Pavlivka, Gulyaipilske, Vremivka, Zaliznychne, Novodanilivka, Mala Tokmachka, Novopil, Mali Shcherbaki, and Poltavka;
    • In the South Buz direction – from tanks and artillery of various calibers in the areas of Pravdyne, Myrne, Ternovi Pody, Sukhy Stavok, Zolota Balka and Marganets settlements. In addition, the enemy continued to conduct aerial reconnaissance, actively using UAVs. Made more than 15 sorties.

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Camouflage for winter campaign.  (Geopolitical Monitor)

Map via ISW
  • Russian and Ukrainian sources reported continued fighting along the Svatove-Kremmina highway and Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground assaults northwest of Svatove near Novoselivske and south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka.
  • Ukrainian forces likely targeted a rear area in occupied Luhansk Oblast on November 9, possibly exacerbating Russian fears over Ukraine’s ability to strike Russian rear areas. Geolocated footage shows smoke plumes and extensive damage to a boarding school in Kadiivka, Luhansk Oblast, with Russian military equipment nearby, indicating that Russian forces likely used the school as a base.
  • Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast head Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian forces have begun mining random areas in Luhansk Oblast and storing ammunition in trucks rather than warehouses out of fear.

LUHANSK-DONETSK

Above: russia world has destroyed most urban areas in northern Donetsk oblast.  (TSN)

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut on November 9. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian attacks on Bakhmut and near Klishchiivka (7km southwest), Mayorsk (20km south), Soledar (12km northeast), Bakhmutske (11 km northeast), Yakovlivka (17km northeast), and Bilohorivka (23km northeast).
  • Geolocated footage showed that Russian forces and Wagner forces have advanced into the southern half of Bilohorivka, Donetsk Oblast.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on November 9. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults in the areas of Vesele (8km southwest of Avdiivka), Opytne (4km southwest of Avdiivka), and Pervomaiske (12km southwest of Avdiivka).
  • Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults in the areas of Pavlivka (50km southwest of Donetsk City) and Novomykailivka (30km southwest of Donetsk City).
  • Andryushchenko reported that Russian occupation authorities are installing dragon’s teeth and planting mines along the Ahrobaza-Berdyanske-Shevchenko-Pryazovske line near Mariupol’s suburbs.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above: Ukrainian defenders operating drones near Snihorivka, Kherson.  Snihorivka is a transportation hub for two major rail lines that the enemy has used for resupply. (The Guardian)

Map via ISW
  • Ukrainian military officials largely maintained operational silence on the situation in Kherson Oblast on November 9, despite confirmation by Russian military officials that Russian troops are withdrawing from the west bank of the Dnipro River.
  • The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kherson direction since August—a coordinated interdiction campaign to force Russian forces to withdraw across the Dnipro without necessitating major Ukrainian ground offensives—has likely succeeded.
  • The battle of Kherson is not over, but Russian forces have entered a new phase—prioritizing withdrawing their forces across the river in good order and delaying Ukrainian forces, rather than seeking to halt the Ukrainian counteroffensive entirely.
  • Advisor to the Ukrainian President’s Office Mykhailo Podolyak reported that Ukraine has not observed signs that Russian troops will retreat without a fight—tracking with ISW’s assessment that Russian forces will conduct a fighting withdrawal.
  • Ukrainian forces made gains near the Mykolaiv-Kherson Oblast border northeast of Kherson City on November 9. Kherson Occupation Deputy Kirill Stremousov claimed on the evening of November 8 that Ukrainian forces broke through Russian defenses and gained a foothold on the northern outskirts of Snihurivka (45km northeast of Kherson City). Stremousov notably died in a reported car crash on November 9.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Head Valentyn Reznichenko and other Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces launched Iranian-made Shahed-136 UAVs at Dnipro City, hitting a building of an unspecified logistics enterprise.  Ukrainian officials added that Ukrainian air defenses destroyed five Shahed-136 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot down a Russian air-to-surface Kh-31 missile that targeted the Odesa Oblast coastline.
  • Occupation authorities in rear areas are likely increasing law enforcement crackdowns and filtration measures amid fears of Ukrainian counteroffensives after the November 9 Kherson Oblast withdrawal announcement. Russian sources claimed that occupation authorities detained a group of supposed Ukrainian militants in Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast.
  • Ukrainian Mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov reported that Ukrainian partisans attacked the Russian occupation headquarters in Voznesenska on the northeastern outskirts of Melitopol, and geolocated footage shows smoke rising from a building in area.

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