UKRAINIAN WORLD CONGRESS

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DAY 294

Victory Chronicles
-DAY 294

December 14,2022

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS

Above: Ukraine was awoken Wednesday morning to the sound of air raid sirens as the enemy launched a barrage of Iranian drones over central Ukraine.  Pictured are Ukrainian air defenses shooting down drones over Kyiv. (Yorukhun)

Map via ISW
  • Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian forces are striking Ukraine with missiles that Ukraine transferred to Russian in the 1990s as part of the international “Budapest Memorandum” agreement which Russia explicitly recognized that Crimea and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts were parts of Ukraine and Russia committed “to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine,” among many other provisions that Russia has violated.
  • US officials stated on December 13 that the Pentagon is finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense systems to Ukraine. CNN reported that it is unclear how many Patriot missile systems the Pentagon plan would provide Ukraine, but that a typical Patriot battery includes up to eight launchers with a capacity of four ready-to-fire missiles each, radar targeting systems, computers, power generators, and an engagement control station.
  • The situation in northern Ukraine near Belarus has not significantly changed and Ukrainian authorities still have not detected Russian forces forming strike groups in Belarus.
  • According to russian milbloggers, the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) engages  in performative “excessive reporting” instead of addressing systemic issues with the Russian military and Russian operations in Ukraine.  Russian soldiers are often made to dress in statutory uniforms and appear on camera to propagate a sense of preparedness and professionalism instead of actually preparing for combat missions. Such demonstrations are purely theatrical and create a false sense of coherency in the Russian Armed Forces without actually addressing substantive issues with logistics, communications, and basic provision of units.
  • Senior Israeli officials stated that Iran seeks to limit the range of missiles it plans to provide Russia. Iran fears international backlash from providing Russia with long range missiles to use in the war in Ukraine and noted that United Nations (UN) Security Council Resolution 2231 passed in 2015 prevents the transfer or receipt of Iranian ballistic missiles with a range over 300 kilometers and a payload over 500 kilograms until October 2023.

Above: As air raid sirens ring out across Ukraine Wednesday morning, the USA prepares to transfer a Patriot missile system to Ukraine to help defend against russia’s campaign to destroy Ukraine’s power system. (NBC News)

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above:  Foreign Affairs

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses for last 24 hours

  • Liquidated personnel, 96,000 (+740)
  • Tanks 2,970, (+4)
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 5,937 (+7)
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,931/404 (0)
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 211 (0)
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 281/264 (0)
  • UAV operational-tactical level, 1,617 (0)
  • Cruise missiles, 592 (0)
  • Warships/boats, 16 (0)
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,562 (+13)
  • Special equipment, 171 (+1)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: (New York Times)

  • russian occupiers carry out full-scale armed aggression against our country, they do not stop striking civilian infrastructure objects and civilian homes on the territory of Ukraine, violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law, the laws and customs of warfare.
  • The enemy continues to focus its efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Zaporizhzhia directions. Over the past day, units of the Defense Forces repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of the settlements of Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka, Novoehorivka, Makiivka, Chervonpopivka, and Bilohorivka of the Luhansk oblast and Verkhnyokamianske, Soledar, Yakovlivka, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, Mayorsk, Avdiivka, and Maryinka Donetsk
  • There remains the threat of the enemy launching air and missile strikes on civilian infrastructure throughout Ukraine.
  • Over the past day, the enemy carried out mortar and artillery shelling of the areas of settlements: Seredyna-Buda and Ryasne of the Sumy oblast, as well as Strelecha, Staritsa, Ohirtseve, Hatyshche, Volohivka, Okhrimivka, Chuhunivka, Ambarne, Dvorichna, Kamianka of the Kharkiv
  • In the Kupyansk direction, the areas of the settlements: Kislivka, Kotlyarivka, Tabaivka, Berestov of the Kharkiv region were shelled by tanks and the entire spectrum of artillery; Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka, Novoehorivka, Makiivka, Luhansk
  • In the Lyman direction, the enemy shelled the Terny, Yampolivka, Torske districts of the Donetsk oblast and Bilohorivka of the Luhansk oblast with tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery.
  • In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy fired tanks and artillery of various types in the areas of almost twelve settlements, in particular: Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, Spirne, Bilohorivka, Vesele, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Pidhorodne, Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, Druzhba of the Donetsk
  • In the Avdiivka direction, the enemy shelled the areas of almost twenty settlements with tanks, mortars, and rocket artillery, including: Zalizne, New York, Krasnohorivka, Berdychi, Vesele, Avdiivka, Opytne, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, and Maryinka of the the Donetsk
  • In the direction of Novopavlivjka, the enemy shelled the areas of Vuhledar, Bohoyavlenka, Novoukrayinka, Prechystivka, and Zolota Nyva settlements in the Donetsk oblast from artillery of various types.
  • In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy fired tanks and the entire range of artillery at the settlements of Vremivka of the Donetsk oblast and Zelene Pole, Novopil, Novodarivka, Malynivka, Hulyaipole, Dorozhnianka, Hulyaipilske, Charivne, Bilohirya, Mala Tokmachka, Orihiv, Mali Shcherbaki, Kamianske and Plavni of the Zaporizhzhia oblast.
  • In the Kherson direction, the enemy carried out mortar and artillery attacks on the settlements of the Kherson oblast bordering the contact line, Antonivka, Chornobayivka and the city of Kherson were the most affected.

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above:  The enemy continues to shell liberated settlements in Kharkiv Oblast. (Kommentary Kharkiv)

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain positions northwest of Svatove on December 13. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked toward Novoselivske and Stelmakhivka, both about 15km northwest of Svatove.
  • A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian troops northwest of Svatove are reinforcing positions in preparation for an anticipated Russian offensive in the area. Russian forces reportedly struck Kupyansk (45km northwest of Svatove) with S-300 surface-to-air missiles.
  • Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks west of Kreminna in order to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line on December 13. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks near Novoyehorivka (35km northwest of Kreminna), Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna), Chervonopopivka (5km north of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna).

LUHANSK-DONETSK-ZAPORIZHZHIA

Above: A tidy bunker in western Donetsk Oblast, on the frontline of russian aggression since 2014.  (New York Times)

Map via ISW
  • Russian sources claimed that Russian troops made marginal advances within Bakhmut on December 13.  A Russian milblogger reported that Wagner Group forces broke through Ukrainian defensive lines in the eastern part of Bakhmut and established full control of the Bakhmut Champagne Winery and “Siniat” enterprise.
  • Russian forces continued ground assaults in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on December 13. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked in the areas of Avdiivka and Marinka (on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City).
  • The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on December 13 that Wagner Group has sent over 23,000 Russian prisoners to the Ukrainian front lines as part of his extended effort to bolster his political influence and potentially position himself as Putin’s successor. Russian society does not care about the fate of prisoners, allowing Prigozhin to use them as cannon fodder in high-risk and high-mortality operations while keeping Wagner Group leadership out of combat.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces in Donetsk Oblast have intensified forced mobilization in an effort to replenish losses in the Russian 1st Army Corps (forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic). The report stated that Russian forces in Horlivka, Donetsk are subjecting residents to forced conscriptions, especially residents with previous armored unit experience.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above: the enemy is digging trenches “for tourists” on western Crimea, Ukraine, beaches.  (Censor Net)

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces may be withdrawing from certain areas south of the Dnipro River as they continue fortifying rear positions in occupied Kherson Oblast. Russian forces in the Kherson direction are withdrawing from Novomykhailivka (west of the R47 highway 23km west of Henichesk) and Mykhailivka (on the T2209 highway 45km northwest of Henichesk).
  • Likely Ukrainian actors downed a bridge in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast amid increased reports of Ukrainian strikes against Russian military assets near Melitopol within the past few days. Russian occupation officials claimed that Ukrainian “saboteurs” detonated 15-20kg of explosives to down the bridge overnight.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 13 that Ukrainian strikes destroyed the command post of the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army in Melitopol, and further strikes against Enerhodar, Tokmak, and Hulyaipole cumulatively wounded 150 personnel and destroyed three artillery installations and 10 pieces of equipment.
  • The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Ukrainian partisans conducted an improvised explosive device (IED) attack against Kherson Oblast occupation Deputy Head Vitaly Bulyuk in his car in Skadovsk, Kherson Oblast, killing the car’s driver and injuring Bulyuk.
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced on December 13 that it has made progress in negotiations regarding the demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), and French President Emmanuel Macron claimed that both sides agreed to the removal of Russian heavy weapons from the ZNPP grounds (Ukraine has no weapons of any sort on the ZNPP grounds).
  • Russian forces are fortifying the northern beaches of Crimea along the Black Sea coast. An image posted on December 10 shows that Russian forces are digging trenches along a beach in Chornomorske, Crimea (124km south of Kherson City). Russian milbloggers claimed that these fortifications are instead part of an effort to restore Crimean beaches for tourism.

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