UKRAINIAN WORLD CONGRESS

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DAY 295

Victory Chronicles
-DAY 295

December 15,2022

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: UA INTELLIGENCE FORECASTS LARGE-SCALE ENEMY OFFENSIVES IN EARLY 2023

Above: Belarus watchers report a buildup of war materiel in Belarus near the border with Poland and Lithuania. Moscow is pressuring Belarus to enter the war by opening a new front in northwestern Ukraine.  (New Voice of Ukraine)

  • Ukrainian officials are forecasting that Russia may attempt to launch a large-scale offensive in the early months of 2023. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated on December 13 that indicators such as Russian mobilization efforts, the announcement of conscription, and the movement of heavy weaponry suggest that Russia may be preparing for a large-scale offensive in January and February 2023.
  • Russian forces could most readily relaunch offensive operations along the Kharkiv-Luhansk border or in Donetsk Oblast. Russian troops appear to be moving heavy equipment from rear areas in Luhansk Oblast to areas near the current frontline along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border and have reshaped and reconsolidated their force grouping along this line.
  • Ukrainian air defense units shot down all the Shahed drones that Russian forces launched at Ukraine on December 14. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces launched 13 Shahed-136 and Shahed-131 drones at critical infrastructure facilities in Ukraine, including areas of Kyiv Oblast.
  • Russian president’s decision to postpone his annual address to the Russian Federation Assembly indicates he remains uncertain of his ability to shape the Russian information space amidst increasing criticism of his conduct of the invasion of Ukraine. Putin has already canceled his annual press conference with the members of the Russian public, likely in an attempt to avoid answering questions about Russia’s military failures.
  • Kremlin-sponsored business outlet Kommersant reported that Rossiya Airlines is planning to suspend a third of its pilots flying Airbus aircraft, with some Russian officials noting that this decision aims to conserve spare parts for Airbus planes amidst sanctions.
  • Russian opposition outlets also reported that Russian officials are preparing a law that would ban IT, public services, and security personnel from working from home.  The law aims to force Russian personnel who fled Russia as a result of mobilization to return to the country.
  • The Ukrainian Resistance Center stated that occupied Russian territories have very low Russian passport issuance rates—in the tens of thousands rather than millions—undermining the Russian claim that 99% of Ukrainians supported the annexation referendum.


Sixty-four Ukrainian POWs, including one American civilian, returned to Ukraine on December 14. Russia did not comment on the exchange.” (General Staff)

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above:  Of unknown cause, explosions and fire yesterday at an enemy oil refinery in Irkutsk region, Russia. (Igor Sushko)

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses for last 24 hours

  • Liquidated personnel, 96,590 (+590)
  • Tanks, 2,975 (+5)
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 5,949 (+9)
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,943/406 (+12/2)
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 211 (0)
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 281/264 (0)
  • UAV operational-tactical level, 1,644 (+27)
  • Cruise missiles, 592 (0)
  • Warships/boats, 16 (0)
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,563 (+1)
  • Special equipment, 172 (+1)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Once a children’s school in Kherson. (CNBC)

  • The enemy launched 1 air and 11 missile strikes, 3 of them on the civilian infrastructure of Kharkiv, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia The occupiers also launched more than 60 MLRS attacks from multiple rocket launchers.
  • On the Siverskyi and Slobozhanskyi directions, the enemy shelled the areas of the settlements of Leonivka, Buchka and Hai of the Chernihiv oblast; Kucherivka and Kindrativka in Sumy oblast, as well as Strilecha, Starytsa, Tykhe, Ambarne, Vilkhuvatka, Khatne, Milove, Dvorichna and Krasne in Kharkiv
  • On the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, the areas of Kupyansk, Kotlyarivka, Tabaivka, and Berestove in Kharkiv oblast were shelled by tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery; Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka, Myasozharivka, Hrekivka, Ploshchanka, Nevske, Chervonopopivka and Pishchane of Luhansk oblast and Novosadove Terny – Donetsk
  • In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy inflicted fire damage, in particular, near Serebryanka, Verkhnyokamyanske, Spirne, Bilohorivka, Vesele, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Opytne, Klishchiivka, and Kurdyumivka of the Donetsk
  • In the Avdiivka direction, the occupiers fired tanks and artillery in the areas of almost twenty settlements. Among them are Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Heorhiivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka in Donetsk
  • In the Novopavlivka and Zaporizhzhia directions, the enemy inflicted fire near the settlements of Vremivka, Vuhledar, Neskuchne, Prechystivka in the Donetsk oblast and Plavni, Hulyaipole, Dorozhnyanka and Olhivske in Zaporizhzhia
  • In the Kherson direction, the enemy continues to shell our positions and the civilian infrastructure of settlements along the right bank of the Dnipro River. More than twenty settlements were affected. In particular, Chornobayivka, Antonivka, Mykilske, Tokarivka, Novokayiry, Respublikanets, Mylove of the Kherson oblast and the city of Kherson.

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above:  Kharkiv city officials are working with residents to restore and repair residential housing. (Kommentary Kharkiv)

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces continued to conduct counterattacks in the Svatove and Kreminna areas on December 14. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults northwest of Svatove near Hryanykivka in Kharkiv Oblast (51km northwest of Svatove) and Novoselivske.

LUHANSK-DONETSK-ZAPORIZHZHIA

Above:  Ukrainian forces are holding in Bakhmut after the enemy’s best effort to take it for several months.  (The Telegraph)

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations around Bakhmut on December 14. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut, 14km south of Bakhmut near Kurdyumivka, and within 23km northeast of Bakhmut near Bilohorivka, Soledar, and Bakhmutske. Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner Group units and Ukrainian forces are fighting on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut.
  • Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on December 14. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults within 37km southwest of Avdiivka near Nevelske, Marinka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.
  • Ukrainian partisans continue to undermine Russian occupation by aiding Ukrainian forces in identifying valuable Russian targets. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on December 14 that Ukrainian partisans in Donetsk Oblast provided information to Ukrainian forces that resulted in a Ukrainian precision strike on Russian manpower and equipment in Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast, resulting in the death of 100 Russian servicemembers.
  • A Russian media opposition source reported that Donetsk public utilities workers may be planning to strike, complaining about chronic overwork, no wage raises, and poor working conditions. The source stated that mobilization has caused economic devastation and greatly reduced the labor pool as many local men have been killed or badly wounded.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA-CRIMEA

Above: CNN

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces continued defensive operations south of the Dnipro River and conducted artillery strikes on the west (right) bank of Kherson Oblast on December 14. Satellite imagery circulated by Russian and Ukrainian channels shows Russian fortifications comprised of three rows of “dragon’s teeth” in Kherson Oblast
  • Russian forces shelled settlements along the west bank coastline of the Dnipro River and significantly damaged the Kherson City Administration Building with multiple-launch-rocket-system (MLRS) fire.
  • Residents and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian troops struck recreation centers where Russian soldiers lived in Skadovsk and Lazurne (both south of the Dnipro River) on the night of December 13 and morning of December 14. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian strikes hit Russian concentration areas throughout Zaporizhia Oblast between December 12 and 14.
  • The Wall Street Journal reported that at least 20 Ukrainian partisans in Kherson City provided continual intelligence to Ukrainian forces during the Russian occupation of Kherson City. Intelligence provided by Ukrainian partisans played a key role in guiding Ukrainian precision strikes, which ultimately forced Russian troops to abandon the city in November.
  • Crimean Occupation Head announced on December 14 that the occupation State Council of Crimea adopted a law that provides a free plot of land in Crimea to participants of the “special military operation.”

Video: General Staff daily war video digest opens with a strike on the liberated Kherson administration building

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