DAY 331

Victory Chronicles
-DAY 331

January 20,2023


Above: Images appeared yesterday of air defense systems positioned on top of several buildings in moscow including the russian defense ministry headquarters. A prominent pro-kremlin blogger wrote, “It’s good to begin planning in advance instead of after the first strikes.” (Photo: Defense Blog)

Video: Hoisting an air defense system to the top of a shopping complex in downtown Moscow. 

  • Senior Kremlin officials continue holding meetings with Belarusian leadership. The Russian foreign minister met Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka in Minsk to discuss the Russo-Belarusian “shared vision” for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
  • Lukashenka’s readout of the meeting stated that they identified areas of cooperation to “preserve the sovereignty of the two countries in all respects.” This rhetoric is consistent with Lukashenko’s longstanding efforts to avoid ceding Belarusian sovereignty.
  • A prominent Kremlin spokesperson responded to the idea that the US may provide weapons capable of striking temporarily-occupied Ukrainian territory would escalate the conflict and that even talk of such weapons is extremely dangerous for the West. Such Kremlin threats do not correspond to Russia’s actual capabilities to escalate against the West. Russian forces do not have the capacity to escalate their conventional war effort in Ukraine and are not capable of conducting successful conventional military operations against the West and NATO. Russia has severely weakened its military posture against NATO by deploying military assets away from NATO to Ukraine.
  • The Russian commander of the war in Ukraine reportedly clarified that the Wagner Group does not belong to the structure of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and that the Russian Ministry of Defense is not responsible for Wagner servicemen.
  • A report emerged that Russian citizen went to a military enlistment office in Krasnodar to volunteer but was told to wait for the coming mobilization or to enlist right away in Grozny, Chechen Republic, presumably with Kadyrovite private militia.
  • Unspecified Duma deputies are working on implementing the nationalization of the property of Russians who fled the country. Others argue for the creation of incentives for them to return home.
  • Russian courts have received over 900 criminal cases under the article on “unauthorized abandonment of a unit” since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Russian government increased punishments for desertion, insubordination, and disobedience at the beginning of the start of mobilization last October.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles


Above: Photo memory from last winter. (CSIS)

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

  • Liquidated personnel, 119,300 (+770)
  • Tanks, 3,139 (+3)
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 6,241 (+6)
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,129/442 (+7/0)
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 220 (0)
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 287/277 (0)
  • UAV operational-tactical level, 1,886 (+4)
  • Cruise missiles, 749 (0)
  • Warships/boats, 17 (0)
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,903 (+7)
  • Special equipment, 190 (0)


Above:  Pile of vehicles destroyed in the invasion of Irpin, Kyiv. (Euromaidan Press)

Glory to Ukraine! The three hundred and thirty-first day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

  • During the past day, the enemy launched 9 missile and 23 air strikes and launched more than 80 attacks from rocket salvo systems. There is an increased threat of air and missile strikes on civilian objects throughout the territory of Ukraine.
  • Last day, the units of the Defense Forces repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of Novoselivske and Bilogorivka settlements of the Luhansk region; Verkhnokamianske, Krasnopolivka, Soledar, Krasna Gora, Paraskoviivka, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Diliivka, Vodyane, Maryinka, Pobyeda, Novosilka in the Donetsk region and Mala Tokmachka and Stepove in Zaporizhzhia.
  • The enemy shelled the areas of Timofiyivka in the Sumy region and Veterinarny, Strelecha, Zeleny, Staritsa, Vovchansk, Vilcha, Budarok, Krasny Pershy, Dvorichny and Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region with artillery.
  • In the Kupyansk direction, the areas of Tavilzhanka, Vilshan, Orlyanske, Kupyansk, Krokhmalne, Pishchane, Berestov, Stelmakhivka, and Vyshnevo settlements of Kharkiv region, as well as Novoselivske in Luhansk region, were shelled.
  • On the Lymanskyi direction, the enemy shelled the Novoyehorivka, Makiivka, Ploshanka, Chervonopivka, Kreminnaya, Dibrova, and Serebryansky forestry districts of the Luhansk region with all available firepower.
  • In the Bakhmut direction, Verkhnokamyanske, Vyimka, Bilogorivka, Soledar, Krasna Gora, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Bila Gora, Kurdyumivka and Mayorsk of the Donetsk region were damaged by fire.
  • Kamianka, Avdiivka, Vesele, Vodyane, Krasnohorivka, Georgiivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka in Donetsk region came under enemy fire in the Avdiivsk
  • In the direction of Novopavlovsk, the enemy fired at Vugledar, Bogoyavlenka, Zolota Niva, Velika Novosilka, and Neskuchne in the Donetsk
  • In the Zaporizhzhia direction, more than 20 settlements were affected by tank, mortar and artillery fire, in particular, Vremivka and Novopil in Donetsk region and Olgivske, Malynivka, Gulyaipole, Charivne, Biloghirya, Orihiv, Mali Shcherbaki and Kamianske in Zaporizhzhia.
  • In the Kherson direction, the occupiers shelled, in particular, Kachkarivka, Respublikanets, Tyaginka, Ivanivka, Novotyaginka, Tokarivka, Ingulets, Kherson, Blagovishchenske and Rozlyv.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!


Above: “Just a year ago, many of us were civilians, but the war came, and we took up arms because we understood – no one but us. Our goal is victory – total and complete destruction of the enemy.” (Ukraine Territorial Defense Forces)

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions near There is heavy fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces on the outskirts of Kreminna and near Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna).  Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Terny, Donetsk Oblast (17km west of Kreminna) and Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast (12km south of Kreminna).
  • Luhansk People’s Republic internal ministry announced that LNR law enforcement will not penalize Luhansk Oblast residents who voluntarily surrender weapons and ammunition following an incident in which LNR law enforcement arrested an individual reportedly carrying explosives in Kadiivka, Luhansk Oblast.
  • Russian occupation authorities are continuing to target Ukrainian children to consolidate societal control in occupied territories. Luhansk occupation authorities threaten to deprive Ukrainian parents of their rights should they not send their children to Russian schools.
  • In Novopskov, Luhansk, in the premises of the local maternity hospital, the occupiers set up a field hospital, where more than 300 servicemen and Wagner mercenaries are being treated.


Above:  “The earth is on fire, the resistance continues. 43 Separate Artillery Brigade named after Hetman Taras Tryasyl.” (General Staff)

Video: Occupation authorities holding a pro-kremlin indoctrination for Ukrainian children of Mariupol, featuring mega-pro-war performer ripping off Western fashion and pop genre. They all have better uniforms than russian soldiers. 

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations around Soledar on January 19. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Soledar itself, Verkhnokamianske (20km northeast of Soledar) and Sil (3km northwest of Soledar).
  • Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut and near Klishchiivka, Oleksandro-Shultyne (17km southwest of Bakhmut), and Kurdyumivka (13km southwest of Bakhmut). Geolocated footage published indicates that Russian forces have likely made marginal advances in the northeastern outskirts of Bakhmut.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Donetsk City-Avdiivka Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults within 32km southwest of Avdiivka near Vodyane, Marinka, Pobieda, and Paraskoviivka.


Above:  Even after damage from Russian air strikes on the energy grid is repaired, Ukraine will continue experiencing generation capacity shortage until it regains control of the temporarily-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The temporarily-occupied plant generates 6 GW of electricity and three thermal plants, which normally produce 3.6 GW. “That’s nearly 26% of total national generation capacity being currently unavailable,” noted a spokesperson for DTEK private energy company. (New Voice of Ukraine)

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces continued routine fire along the contact line in Kherson, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv Russian forces continue to use incendiary munitions against civilian infrastructure in occupied territories.
  • Ukrainian partisans may have conducted an attack in Kyrylivka, Melitopol Raion, Zaporizhia Oblast, using an IED to hit a house holding a group of Russian servicemembers.
  • In temporarily-occupied Crimea, Russia is preparing for covert mobilization. In particular, in the city of Sevastopol, military summons began to arrive to IT specialists, financial workers and other specialists who had protection against mobilization.

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