KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY: ENEMY MAY START A NORTHEASTERN OFFENSIVE TO MARK ONE YEAR OF INVASION
Above: (UK Defence Intelligence)
- Ukrainian officials continue to assess that an imminent Russian offensive in the coming months is the most likely course of action and further suggested that Ukrainian forces plan to launch a larger counteroffensive, possibly centered in northern Luhansk oblast. Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov stated in a January 31 interview with Sky News that Russian forces are preparing for a “maximum escalation” in Ukraine within the next two to three months. However, the escalation may come as soon as the next two to three weeks to coincide with the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
- Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate Head Kyrylo Budanov stated in a January 31 interview with the Washington Post that Russian forces will focus on occupying a larger area of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Budanov stated that there are currently 326,000 Russian forces fighting in Ukraine and roughly 150,000 mobilized personnel still in training grounds.
- The Russian Prosecutor General reported to Putin on January 31 that Russian authorities have returned over 9,000 illegally-mobilized Russians to their homes, acknowledging an array of significant problems yet claiming that Russian authorities have solved the majority of issues.
- Russian authorities are luring predominantly migrants from Central Asian and African to work in occupied territories while failing to provide them with the promised position or payment upon arrival in occupied areas.The workers are promised work on infrastructure projects and then find themselves digging trenches and defensive fortifications for less than half the promised compensation.
- Putin ordered the Russian Ministry of Defense and Ministry of Foreign Affairs on January 31 to establish joint Russian-Belarusian military training centers in Belarus. Putin will likely use these Belarusian facilities to train reinforcements for frontlines in eastern Ukraine.
General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles
GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES
Above: The barrel says, “Russians are coming”. (iNews)
Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)
- Liquidated personnel, 128,420 (+920)
- Tanks, 3,209 (+8)
- Armored personnel vehicles, 6,382 (+4)
- Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,207/458 (+10/4)
- Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 221 (0)
- Aircraft/helicopters, 293/284 (0)
- UAV operational-tactical level, 1951 (0)
- Cruise missiles, 796 (0)
- Warships/boats, 18 (0)
- Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5061 (+13)
- Special equipment, 200 (0)
GENERAL STAFF CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES
Above: A young child wearing child-size helmet and bulletproof vest is evacuated from Bakhmut. (Reuters)
Glory to Ukraine! The three hundred and forty-third day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.
- During the past day, the occupiers launched 5 air and 6 missile They carried out more than 65 attacks from rocket salvo systems. The civilian infrastructure of settlements in Sumy, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and Kherson regions was affected.
- The danger of Russian air and missile strikes throughout Ukraine remains high.
- Last day, units of the Defense Forces repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of Yampolivka, Spirne, Rozdolivka, Blagodatne, Krasna Gora, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka and Paraskoviivka settlements of the Donetsk
- In the Volyn, Poliske, Siversk and Slobozhansk directions, without significant changes, no offensive groups of the enemy were detected.
- The areas of Rozhkovichi, Basivka, Oleksandrivka and Grabovske settlements in the Sumy region and Veterinarne, Strelecha, Hlyboke, Zelene, Neskuchne, Ohirtseve, Vovchansk, Staritsa and Budarka settlements in the Kharkiv region were fired with mortars and artillery.
- In the Kupyansk direction, the enemy fired at the positions of our troops in the Ivanivka, Kupyansk, Kislivka and Kotlyarivka districts of the Kharkiv region and Novoselivka and Kovalivka – Luhansk
- On the Lymanskyi direction, Novoyehorivka, Nevske, Chervonopivka, Kreminna and Dibrova in the Luhansk region were damaged by fire.
- In the Bakhmut direction, Verkhnokamianske, Spirne, Berestov, Belogorivka, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Predtechine, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, Druzhba and Mayorsk of the Donetsk region came under enemy fire.
- Berdychi, Tonenka, Severna, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Georgiivka, Maryinka, and Pobyeda were shelled in the Avdiivka
- In the Novopavlivskyi direction, areas of the settlements of Velyka Novosilka, Neskuchne, Novoukrayinka, Bogoyavlenka, Vugledar and Mykilski Dachi of the Donetsk region were damaged by fire.
- In the Zaporizhzhia region, the areas of 20 settlements were affected by the fire, including Vremivka and Novopil in the Donetsk region and Malynivka, Gulyaipole, Charivne, Orihiv and Novodanilivka in Zaporizhzhia.
- In the Kherson direction, the areas of 21 settlements were shelled by rocket launchers, barrel artillery and mortars. In particular, these are Zolota Balka, Mykolaivka, Tyaginka, Ponyativka, Antonivka, Berehove, Yantarne and Kherson. There are victims among the civilian population.
Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!
KHARKIV-LUHANSK
Above: Mother and child evacuating from an apartment building hit by an enemy rocket in the center of Kharkiv yesterday. (Voice of America)
Map via ISW- Russian forces continued limited ground attacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line on January 31. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Novoselivske (16km northwest of Svatove) and Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna) in Luhansk Oblast and Yampolivka (16km west of Kreminna) in Donetsk Oblast.
- Geolocated combat footage posted on January 30 shows Russian artillery striking a Ukrainian position about 8km west of Kreminna, indicating that Ukrainian forces have advanced to within 8km of the settlement.
- Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian concentrations in occupied Luhansk Oblast. Geolocated photos posted on January 31shows that Ukrainian troops struck Kadiivka (48km west of Luhansk City on the T0504 Lysychansk-Luhansk City highway) with HIMARS.
DONETSK
Above: Bakhmut at night. (Defense of Ukraine)
Map via ISW- Russian forces are continuing to conduct offensive operations northeast and southwest of Bakhmut and have secured limited territorial gains since capturing Soledar on January 12. “Highly qualified” Russian conventional military troops are now reinforcing Wagner Group assault units in an ongoing effort to encircle Bakhmut.
- Ukrainian forces are still able to effectively supply units in Bakhmut and Ukrainian military command has developed several contingency plans to respond to Russian operations around Bakhmut. Russian forces are continuing to suffer heavy casualties, creating a situation similar to Ukraine’s previous defense and subsequent withdrawal from Severodonetsk and Lysychansk over the summer of 2022 that exhausted Russian forces and disrupted their offensive plans.
- There have been 42 engagements between Ukrainian and Russian forces in the Bakhmut area in the past 24 hours. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut itself; within 29km northeast of Bakhmut near Spirne, Krasna Hora, and Paraskoviivka; and within 7km southwest of Bakhmut near Ivanivske and Klishchiivka.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Donetsk City-Avdiivka area on January 31. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Avdiivka, Vodyane (7km southwest of Avdiivka), and Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka).
- Russian forces have accumulated a large number of forces in the Vuhledar area and will likely continue the localized offensive to capture Vuhledar. Russian forces failed to establish control over positions near Vuhledar and that high casualties and poor weather are constraining Russian combat effectiveness in the area.
ZAPORIZHZHYA-KHERSON-CRIMEA
Above: The Specialized State Transportation Services is a special military unit that works with Ukrainian Railways to demine and repair rail lines and restore surrounding land to safety in liberated territories of Mykholiav and Kherson oblasts. (Specialized State Transportation Service)
- Kherson remains the most consistently shelled large Ukrainian city outside of Donbas, although the enemy’s rationale for expending its strained ammunition stocks here is unclear to rational minds.
- Occupation authorities are using youth re-education programs to Russify occupied areas by instilling pro-Russian ideologies and erasing Ukrainian civil society among Ukrainian children. Another Russian youth indoctrination organization has opened 14 branches throughout occupied Zaporizhia Oblast. The new organization was formed by Putin to “instill the right guidelines” in children.
- Russian forces are likely prioritizing sabotage and reconnaissance activities over territorial gains in southern Ukraine. Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups intensified their activity in the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast and along the Zaporizhia Oblast front line and are not attempting to make territorial gains.
- Russian government authorities declared the full restoration of the fourth and final road bridge span for the Kerch Strait Bridge on January 31 and that Russia plans to reopen the bridge to road traffic in March 2023.
