Victory Chronicles
-DAY 364

Above: The State Border Committee of Belarus took journalists from the US, UK, France, Austria, Saudi Arabia and Qatar on a press tour of Belarus’ border crossing at Pinsk last week, on the road between Gomel, Belarus, and Chernihiv, Ukraine. The tour included a “sincere and impromptu” meeting with Belarus’ self-appointed president for life. While CNN published an alarmist warning of possible invasion of Russian forces from Belarus, the Ukrainian State Border Guard Service said Monday that there is no sign of formation of offensive groups in Belarus.  (CNN)

Above: Dnipropetrovsk-born figure skater Oksana Baiul won the Olympic gold medal in 1994, the first year that independent Ukraine competed.  Poland, the Baltics and Denmark have joined Ukraine’s call to consider boycotting the 2024 Paris Olympics if state-sponsored athletes (and their Kremlin-placed entourages) from Belarus and Russia are allowed to compete.  These countries joined 29 more calling on Olympic organizers to explain how Moscow and Minsk could send athletes “neutrally”. (Photo: U-krane) 

Above: Young Ukrainian scholars study in the basement during an air raid.  Many Ukrainian schools will go to an on-line regime this week in anticipation of heavier enemy airstrikes around the one-year anniversary. (New York Times)

• The Kyiv Independent and other media outlets obtained a 17-page document laying out Kremlin plans to subsume Belarus by the end of the decade. The document is not published to protect anonymous sources. The takeover plan may have been prepared by the Russian Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation.  It may be of no surprise that the neighborly committee’s “actual task is to exert control over neighboring countries that Russia sees as part of its sphere of influence.“ Before the current war, the committee oversaw friendly relations in occupied parts of Georgia.  It has now been refocused on Belarus and its EU neighbors.
• China’s Foreign Minister met with friends in Hungary Monday and announced China’s initiative to work on an “early ceasefire and lasting peace.” The US asked China at the Munich security conference on Saturday to answer for US intelligence reports that China may provide war materiel to Russia and help the aggressor evade sanctions.  The Chinese diplomat is meeting with counterparts in Moscow this week and will announce a peace proposal in a few days.
• Putin’s state of the nation address fell flat. Other than regurgitating the paranoiac “us against the world” excuse for the war, he didn’t address his failing flaccid war in any amount of detail, no patriotic pep talk, no strategic vision. He lamely glamorized incentives to fight with promised benefits like bi-annual leave and money for families. He repeated a litany of worn-out lies with subdued bitterness. The main “news” was the suspension of the final nuclear arms treaty with the US, throwing the nuclear card once again. Kremlin-approved audience video showed many people falling asleep or looking vacant.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Above: Collected enemy tanks and armored vehicles in eastern Ukraine. (Insider)

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 145,060 (+620)
• Tanks, 3,334 (+8)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,569 (+7)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,345/471 (+7/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 243 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 299/287 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 2,026 (+3)
• Cruise missiles, 873 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,212 (+2)
• Special equipment, 226 (0)

Above: The enemy launched a massive GRAD missile attack on Kherson yesterday resulting in many injuries and deaths. (Ukraine Crisis Media Center)

Glory to Ukraine!
Day 364 of the full-scale russian military aggression has begun.

• Last day, the enemy launched 59x attacks from MLRS. As a result of the criminal actions of the russian occupiers, civilian residential buildings were destroyed and damaged, and civilians were killed and wounded.
• There is a great danger of further russian air and missile attacks on the entire territory of Ukraine.
• The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on conducting offensive operations on the Kup’yansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarske axes.
• Over the past day, units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine have repelled attacks of the invaders in the areas of the settlements of Kuzemivka and Dibrova in the Luhansk Oblast and Fedorivka, Yagidne, Berkhivka, Bakhmut and Kurdyumivka in the Donetsk
• Areas of settlements of Bachivsk, Brusky, Pavlivka, Vorozhba and Grabovskoe of Sumy Oblast, as well as more than 20x areas of settlements in Kharkiv Oblast, were subjected to enemy shelling. Among them are Strilecha, Morokhovets, Starytsa, Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, Volohivka, Budarky, Bologhivka and Kolodyazne.
• Kup’yansk and Lyman axes: the enemy shelled the areas of Dvorichna, Hryanikyvka, Kotlyarivka, Kup’yansk and Berestove settlements of the Kharkiv Oblast; Stelmakhivka, Ivanivka, Nevske, Chervonopopivka, Dibrova and Bilogorivka in the Luhansk Oblast and Fedorivka in the Donetsk
• Bakhmut axis: areas of 21x settlements were shelled. In particular, these are Rozdolivka, Vesele, Bilogorivka, Berkhivka, Bakhmut, Stupochki, Klishchiivka, Ozaryanivka and Toretsk.
• Avdiivka and Shakhtarske axes: the enemy fired artillery at the settlements of Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Vodyane, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Georgiivka, Mar’yinka, Bogoyavlenka, Novomykhailivka, Velyka Novosilka, Neskuchne, Prechystivka, and Vugledar.
• Zaporizhzhia axis: the areas of the settlements of Novosilka, Vremivka and Novopil of the Donetsk Oblast and Olhivske, Gulyaipole, Malynivka, Magdalinyvka, Pavlivka, Stepove, Kamianske, Novoandriivka, Orihiv, Charivne, Novodanylivka and Mala Tokmachka of the Zaporizhia Oblast were hit by fire.
• Kherson axis: the city of Kherson was hit from an multiple launch rocket system. There are victims among the civilian population. Areas of 18x settlements were also hit by enemy artillery. Among them are Mykhailivka, Dudchany, Mylove, Tomarine, Shlyakhove, Beryslav, Mykolaivka, Kozatske, Vesele, Antonivka and Veletenske.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

Above:  Citizens went to shelters in the subway system as the enemy rained S-300 missiles fired from Belgorod on Kharkiv this morning.  Injuries reported.  (Maria Avdeeva)

• Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks northwest of Svatove and near Kreminna on February 21. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Hryanykivka and Masiutivka (both 54km northwest of Svatove) and conducted limited counterattacks northwest of Svatove and near Kreminna.

Above: “A mural painted on the side of two apartment buildings in the embattled city of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, on Jan. 2, 2023.”  (The Kyiv Independent)

• Russian forces continued making incremental tactical gains in and around Bakhmut. Geolocated footage taken on February 14 and posted on February 20 shows Ukrainian tanks firing at Russian infantry in the tree line along the E40 Bakhmut-Slovyansk highway, confirming that Russian forces have cut  the E40 northwest of Bakhmut.
• The fact that Russian forces interdicted the E40 a week ago and still have not forced Ukrainians to withdraw from Bakhmut suggests that it is not the vital logistics artery claimed by the enemy.
• Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces made small advances northeast of Bakhmut near Berestove (20km northeast of Bakhmut) and in southwestern Bakhmut in the area of the Mariupolske Cemetary.
• Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; north of Bakhmut near Vasyukivka (11km north) and Berkhivka (4km north); and northeast of Bakhmut around Vasylivka (21km northeast).
• Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Avdiivka–Donetsk City area on February 21. Russian troops attacked near Novobakhmutivka (10km northeast of Avdiivka), on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Vodyane and Nevelske, and on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Marinka. Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces have made marginal advances near Novomykhailivka, just south of Donetsk City.
• Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on February 21. Russian forces previously deployed within the Russian rear in Donetsk Oblast have transferred to the Vuhledar front.

Above: Overland access to Crimea is extremely limited.  Occupation forces are heavily fortifying key points in the northern neck.  (Special Kherson Cat)

• Russian forces continue to reinforce and build fortifications in rear areas of southern Ukraine. Geolocated imagery dated on January 21 and February 20 shows that Russian forces continue to dig trenches south of Armyansk, Crimea, Ukraine.
• Russian forces increased the number of Wagner Group forces, mobilized personnel, and battalions of Ossetian and Dagestani personnel in unspecified areas of Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Redeploying volunteer irregular forces battalions who are likely battle weary and/or poorly trained to Zaporizhia suggests that Russian military leadership has de-prioritized new territorial gains in Zaporizhia Oblast.