Victory Chronicles
-DAY 391

Above: “Russia’s abduction and deportation of Ukraine’s children…was so well-documented and terrifying that when Russian forces prepared to withdraw from the southern city of Kherson last fall, doctors at a hospital there hurriedly hid babies and falsified their records.” The New York Times writes about how the invader is doubling down on its genocidal campaign to take Ukrainian children, currently using forced deportation under the guise of safety evacuations in southern Ukraine. (Photo: Deccan Herald)

Above: Hailed as “game changing” and “a major breakthrough”, the EU agreed on a plan to jointly procure and transfer to Ukraine ammunition on a mass scale.  EU countries are willing to take the risk of drawing down existing stocks, confident in a plan to ramp up production. It seems that Putin’s invasion has put Europe’s economy in war mode. (Yahoo News)

I am grateful to @JosepBorrellF and EU member states for this game-changing decision. Exactly what is needed: urgent delivery + sustainable joint procurement. The EU once again demonstrates resolute leadership in the face of historic challenges posed by Russian aggression. https://t.co/jrlyjAlJPA

— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) March 20, 2023

Above: Eight Leopard 2 tanks arrived Monday from Norway, just the latest in a number of deliveries completed with more in the pipeline.  Poland delivered the first Leopards in early March.  Germany, Sweden, Spain, Finland and Canada have also delivered or promised Leopard tanks to Ukraine. (Bulgarian Military)

Above: A story in the Economist discusses Ukraine’s groundbreaking use of military drones.  “The army has completed a big restructuring, establishing 60 new attack-drone squadrons, at least one in every brigade, with separate staff and commanders. This is the first reform of its kind anywhere in the world.” Innovative design is hampered by multiple factors including procurement of specific technology and communications limitations now that Starlink has blocked its equipment from military use.  

💥 The UK has committed to providing 14 Challenger 2 tanks and accompanying ammunition to support Ukraine in its ongoing battle for freedom.

🎥 We explain how the Ukrainian tank crews are getting to grips with the Challenger 2.#StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/vIyNyTm47d

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) March 20, 2023

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

• In published statements following their meeting in Moscow, Putin and Xi took different tones. Putin emphasized their countries’ rock solid relationship in opposition to a malevolent Western world order, whereas Xi emphasized China’s neutral peacemaker role and did not align against a Western enemy.
• Meanwhile, the Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited Kyiv on Tuesday.    Mr Kishida boarded a train in Przemysl, Poland, Tuesday morning. “Kishida is expected to tell Zelensky that Japan — as this year’s host of the Group of Seven meeting — will seek international unity by imposing tough sanctions against Russia.” Japan has pledged substantial aid to Ukraine, as Ukraine’s strongest “Western ally” in Asia.  China’s growing assertiveness in the region has strengthened cooperation between Japan and the United states in recent years.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Above: Ukranews

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 166,570 (+960)
• Tanks, 3,552 (+15)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,879 (+10)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,586/507 (+9/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 270 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 305/290 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 2,167 (+7)
• Cruise missiles, 907 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,428 (+12)
• Special equipment, 266 (+1)

Above:  The enemy has been trying for months to take Avdiivka in southern Donetsk Oblast, 60 kilometers south of Bakhmut. Reporters spoke to residents and aid workers who described a desperate enemy that has gone from daily bombardment by GRAD rockets and artillery to million-dollar guided missile strikes. Suspline reports that about 1900 residents remain in the town, including seven children.  (France 24)

Glory to Ukraine!
The 391st day of the Russian large-scale invasion had begun.

• During the day, the enemy launched 21x air strikes and 9x missile strikes. One of them was on the city of Sloviansk. There are no losses among residents. Another missile strike hit Kramatorsk, a civilian infrastructure object. 7x high-rise buildings and 3x private cars were damaged. Fortunately, there were no casualties among the civilian population. Also, the enemy launched 57x attacks MLRS.
• The probability of launching missile strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine remains quite high.
• During the day, the enemy carried out mortar and artillery shelling of the districts of 26x settlements. Among them are Seredyna-Buda, Sopych, Starykove, Atynske, Kostyantynivka, Kindrativka, Volfine, Oleksandrivka, Popivka, Studenok and Turya of the Sumy Oblast; Kamianska Sloboda and Khrinivka in Chernihiv Oblast, as well as Hlyboke, Morokhovets, Vovchansk, Zemlianki, Krasne Pershe, Dvorichna, Zapadne, Kamianka, Krasne, Novomlynsk, Strelecha and Chuguivka in Kharkiv
• Kupyansk and Lyman axes: the adversary unsuccessfully tried to break through the defenses of our troops, carrying out artillery shelling of the areas of 11x settlements along the line of combat confrontation. Suffered, in particular, Kupyansk, Krokhmalny and Berestovo districts of Kharkiv Oblast; Nevsky, Pischany, Bilogorivka and Dibrova in the Luhansk Oblast, as well as Spirny, Torsk and Novoselivka in the Donetsk The enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the direction of Novoselivskogo.
• Bakhmut axis: the occupiers are not stopping their assault on the city of Bakhmut. At the same time, our soldiers repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka, Ivanovske, Predtechine and Severnye settlements. Minkivka, Vasyukivka, Zaliznyanske, Bakhmut, Hryhorivka, Ivanovske, Oleksandro-Shultine, Diliivka, New York, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Privillia and Chasiv Yar of the Donetsk Oblast were shelled. In general, 12x settlements on the Bakhmut axis were affected by the fire of the occupiers.
• Avdiivka, Mar’yinka, and Shakhtars’k axes: the enemy unsuccessfully tried to advance in the vicinities of Berdychi, Avdiivka, Severna, Pervomaiske, and Novomykhailivka of the Donetsk Oblast. Areas of 17x settlements were subjected to numerous enemy shelling. In particular, Novobakhmutivka, Kam’ianka, Avdiivka, Lastochkine, Krasnohorivka, Gostre, Georgiivka, Mar’yinka, Vugledar, Velyka Novosilka, Orlivka and Tonenka of the Donetsk
• Zaporizhzhia and Kherson axes: the enemy continues its defense. Intensive shelling, in particular, of Olhivske, Malynivka, Gulyaipole, Biloghirya, Orihiv and Charivne of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast; Vremivka, Novopil’ and Pervomayske – Donetsk Oblast, as well as Dudchany, Kozatske, Blagovishchenske, Dniprovske, Belozerka, Berehove, Chervonyi Mayak and Yantarne of Kherson The total number of shelled settlements is 41x.

Support the Armed Forces! United we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

Above:  Kharkiv Oblast public utilities professionals work to restore energy to the rural population even though their work is “complicated by landmines and enemy shelling.” (Suspilne) 

• Russian forces continued offensive operations near Svatove on March 19 and 20. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Novoselivske (15km northwest of Svatove) on March 19 and 20. Geolocated footage published on March 20 indicates that Russian forces likely made marginal gains north of Novoselivske close to the N-26 highway.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kreminna area on March 19 and 20. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Kreminna and within 25km south of Kreminna near Dibrova, Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, and Spirne. Geolocated footage published on March 20 indicates that Russian forces likely advanced to the outskirts of Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna).  Geolocated footage published on March 19 indicates that Russian forces likely made marginal gains southwest of Ploshchanka (17km northwest of Kreminna).

Above: Repelling the invader near Bakhmut. (RFERL)

• Russian forces made marginal gains in and around Bakhmut amid a reported increase in the tempo of Russian operations around Avdiivka.
• Russian forces likely made additional gains in southwestern and northern Bakhmut as well as northwest of Bakhmut between Bohdanivka and Khromove as of March 20. Geolocated footage posted on March 19 shows that Russian forces have advanced in southwestern Bakhmut just south of Korsunskoho Street, about 7km northwest of Bakhmut between Bohdanivka and Khromove, and in northern Bakhmut near the AZOM complex. Geolocated footage posted on March 20 indicates that Wagner forces have made advances near the Mariupolske Cemetary in southwestern Bakhmut.
• Russian forces are likely increasing the tempo of operations north of Avdiivka in an effort to set conditions for the encirclement of the settlement and are reportedly employing a greater number of aviation units in the area to support these operations. Russian forces are increasingly using Kh-59, Kh-101, Kh-555, and S-300 missiles in the Avdiivka area. Russian forces have lost about three companies (likely referring to infantry) in assaults on Avdiivka since March 19.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline on March 19 and 20. Russian troops attacked toward Berdychi (10km northwest of Avdiivka), which indicates that Russian forces likely advanced west of Krasnohorivka (9km north of Avdiivka) and captured Stepove (just west of Krasnohorivka). Geolocated footage posted on March 18 shows that Russian forces have advanced north of Avdiivka between Krasnohorivka and Kamianka. Geolocated footage posted on March 19 additionally indicates that Russian forces have advanced near Vodyane, about 6km southwest of Avdiivka.

Above: War Mapper’s approximate situation around the city of Bakhmut.

Above:  Map via ISW

This village in eastern Ukraine changed hands 14 times between Ukrainian and Russian forces. @currenttimetv's Borys Sachalko visited and spoke to some of the seven people who remain in what was once a large settlement. pic.twitter.com/pVw2aARnYC

— Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (@RFERL) March 20, 2023

Above: An explosion hit a rail shipment near Dzhankoy in the northern neck of occupied Crimea, Ukraine, on Monday. The strike destroyed a shipment of Kalibr cruise missiles that were being transported by rail to an airbase in southern Crimea. (LB)

• Independent Russian news outlet Verstka reported on March 18 that Russian occupation authorities are recruiting civilians to build defenses and dig trenches in occupied Crimea, offering up to 7,000 rubles (about $90) per day, meals, and accommodations.
• Unknown actors planted a bomb next to a gas pipeline in occupied Simferopol, Crimea, causing an explosion and fire on March 19.
• The Ukrainian Agriculture Ministry reported that 24 ships with 2 million tons of grain departed from Ukrainian seaports last week. Ukraine is cooperating with the United Nations on the “Grain from Ukraine” program to ensure that substantial quantities are shipped to countries in need.