Victory Chronicles
-DAY 392

Above: We imagine that the diminutive kremlin dictator will go down in history as one of the worst leaders of all time.  A year after the disastrous invasion that was to capture Kyiv in three days, Poland’s defense minister was on hand to open the first permanent US military garrison in Poland on Tuesday in Poznan, Poland.  In this initial stage, 13 military personnel and 140 civilian employees will support US military operations in-country.  (TVP World)

Above: The Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights reported that fifteen children from Kharkiv and Kherson were returned to Ukrainian-controlled territory on Tuesday. An online portal for documenting missing and abducted children reports over 16,000 confirmed abductions with 308 children returned.  The actual number of children deported by the Kremlin is many times higher. (Suspilne)

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

• According to plans, Russia is set to take over leadership of the United Nations Security Council on April 1. Yesterday, Moscow signaled its priorities, calling for the first meeting to correct the record on “Ukrainian children taken to Russia”. Ukraine is spearheading a campaign to correct the absurd situation that Russia has veto power on the UN’s highest peacekeeping body. The Soviet Union was originally awarded a seat on the post-war peacekeeping council and Russia simply grabbed the spot without UN questioning when the USSR fell to pieces.
• Russian Federal Security Service and the National Guard launched a criminal investigation into a Rozgvard deputy commander on March 20, who is charged with receiving multimillion-dollar bribes and abusing his power.  It seems like one small drop in an ocean of Russian corruption.
• A joint investigation by Radio Liberty with the independent Russian media Nastoyaschee Vremya published an interesting account of how 250 of Russia’s most prominent doctors left their country in September 2022 by chartering a flight to Yerevan to attend a fabricated medical conference.  Armenian authorities, overwhelmed with arriving flights from Russia, denied the doctors permission to land.
• Ukrainian intelligence estimated that Russia recruits 20,000 servicemen per month through covert mobilization.  However, Russia lacks trainers and uses Belarusian bases and trainers. Russian conscripts from Krasnodar Krai are signing contracts to deploy to Ukraine in August 2023. The Moscow Aviation Institute withheld diplomas from graduates who refused to sign military contracts.
• Some prominent Russian milbloggers believe that the Kremlin is unlikely to mobilize the targeted 400,000 volunteer fighters, because most who want to fight already joined last year. One blogger claimed that the Russian MoD was only able to mobilize 230,000 servicemen in September 2022.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Above: Oryx

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 167,490 (+920)
• Tanks, 3,557 (+5)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,887 (+8)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,589/509 (+3/2)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 272 (+2)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 305/290 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 2,183 (+16)
• Cruise missiles, 909 (+2)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,434 (+6)
• Special equipment, 270 (+4)

Above:  Power lines down in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk, following enemy strikes over the weekend.  Shelling, mortars and even missile strikes on population centers are accelerating behind the Donetsk frontline. (New York Times)

Glory to Ukraine!
The 392nd day of the Russian large-scale invasion had begun.

• The russian aggressor continues to ignore the laws and customs of war, shelling settlements and critical infrastructure.
• During the day of March 21, the occupants launched 10x missile, 32x air strikes, as well as 90x MLRS attacks, including at civilian targets.
• The threat of attacks across Ukraine remains. Thus, on the night of March 22, the adversary launched another massive air strike with Shahed-136 According to preliminary information, 16x out of 21x drones launched by the enemy were destroyed by Ukrainian defenders.
• During the day of March 21, the invaders shelled the vicinities of settlements of Khrinivka, Mykhal’chyna Sloboda (Chernihiv oblast), Atyns’ke, Iskryskivshchyna, Volfyne, Pavlivka, Basivka, Yunakivka, Popivka (Sumy oblast), Basove, Kozacha Lopan’, Strilecha, Hlyboke, Vovchans’k, and Velykyi Burluk (Kharkiv oblast).
• Kup’yans’k and Lyman axes: the adversary continues its attempts to break through the Ukrainian defense. The enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive operations in the vicinities of settlements of Kreminna, Dibrova, Bilohorivka, and Vesele. The invaders fired artillery at the vicinities of settlements of Krasne Pershe, Dvorichna, Masyutivka, Kup’yans’k, Krokhmal’ne, Berestove (Kharkiv oblast), Novoselivs’ke, Nevs’ke, Bilohorivka (Luhansk), Tors’ke, Spirne, and Fedorivka (Donetsk oblast).
• Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian defenders are repelling numerous round-the-clock attacks of the adversary in the vicinities of settlements of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, and Maiors’k. Vasyukivka, Zaliznyans’ke, Min’kivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Hryhorivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Stupochky, Predtechyne, Chasiv Yar, Kurdyumivka, Ozarianivka, and Pivnichne (Donetsk oblast), among others, came under enemy fire.
• Avdiivka, Mar’inka, and Shakhtars’ke axes: the adversary conducted offensive operations in the vicinities of settlements of Novobakhmutivka, Novokalynove, Krasnohorivka, Stepove, Berdychi, Avdiivka, Sjeverne, Vodyane, Pervomais’ke, Mar’inka, and Pobjeda. To no success. Almost 20x unsuccessful offensive attempts were made by the enemy in the vicinity of Mar’inka. Lastochkyne, Berdychi, Orlivka, Avdiivka, Tonen’ke, Heorhiivka, Nevel’s’ke, Krasnohorivka, Mar’inka, and Vuhledar (Donetsk oblast) came under enemy fire.
• Zaporizhzhia and Kherson axes: the adversary is defending. The vicinities of settlements of Novopil’ (Donetsk oblast), Ol’hivs’ke, Malynivka, Chervone, Charivne, Hulyaipole, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanylivka, Novoandriivka, Kam’yans’ke (Zaporizhzhia oblast), Kherson, Beryslav, Ponyativka, Dar’ivka, and Antonivka (Kherson oblast) came under fire.

Support the Armed Forces! United we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

Above:  The ambassadors to Ukraine of Sweden, Canada and the US visited Kharkiv on Tuesday.  The visit brought hope to Kharkiv residents who are already looking forward to reconstruction.  The diplomats were set to discuss the humanitarian situation, demining and psychological support for those traumatized by war. (Ukrinform) 

• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on March 21. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Masyukivka (15km northeast of Kupyansk), Novoselivske (15km northwest of Svatove), Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna), and Verkhnokamyanske (20km south of Kreminna). Geolocated footage published on March 20 indicates that Russian forces have advanced towards Terny, about 15km northwest of Kreminna.
• The Kupyansk-Lyman direction is under the heaviest Russian artillery fire where they are using Soviet-era armored vehicles and older tanks more actively on this line.

Above: “White Angels” are volunteers who risk their lives to evacuate anyone in need from active combat areas.  Working just ahead of enemy advances, they are now pleading with people along the Kostyantynivka-Slovyansk corridor and around Avdiivka to get out now. (AP News)

Above: A private Polish coal mining company is raising funds to deliver modern ambulances to war medics.  Dnipro city received five fully-equipped vehicles adapted specifically for war triage.  Four more vehicles are in the pipeline for later delivery.  (Suspilne)

• Russian forces did not make any confirmed gains in or around Bakhmut on March 21. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut; within 11km northwest of Bakhmut near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Hryhorivka, and Bohdanivka; and within 22km southwest of Bakhmut near Ivanivske, Predtechyne, and Pivnichne.
• There were 13 combat clashes in Bakhmut, a notable decrease from the 24 combat clashes in the city that he reported on March 16. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults in northern Bakhmut, likely suggesting that Russian forces are concentrating offensive operations on the northern part of the city.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the outskirts of Donetsk City on March 21. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Avdiivka; within 14km north of Avdiivka near Novobakhmutivka, Berdychi, and Krasnohorivka; and within 36km southwest of Avdiivka near Sieverne, Pervomaiske, Marinka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.

Above: War Mapper’s approximate situation around the city of Bakhmut.

Above:  Map via ISW

Above: Kherson city today.  (State Emergency Services)

Above: Kherson Oblast occupation authorities signed an agreement with a well-known Kremlin-funded nationalist children’s camp in Vladivostok, Russia, to send children from occupied Kherson over 7000 kilometers away for “rest and study”.