Victory Chronicles
-DAY 407

Above: President Zelensky largely received a hero’s welcome in Poland, seen by many Poles as the leader of the conflict holding back Russian aggression on their own lands. “We know each other — Ukrainians and Poles, we have known each other for a long time,” Mr. Zelensky said. “Now, in the heart of the Polish capital, Ukrainian hearts turn to all Polish hearts; it is a great honor for me to be here.”(News24)

Above:  Syrian artist Aziz Al-Asmar has been painting murals on buildings destroyed by Russian bombing in his county where over 500 thousand civilians have been killed.  Mr Al-Asmar recently painted a tribute to Oleksandr Matsievsky, the Ukrainian soldier who was killed as a POW after saying, “Glory to Ukraine” to his inhuman captors. (Photo: UATV)

let's put the proportions in place: true size of Finland pic.twitter.com/6cTUtdlQnF

— Petteri Kajanmaa (@PutteKaj) April 5, 2023

Above: Rail service between Ukraine and Poland is expanding.  A new route connecting Lublin with Rava-Ruska, Lviv, will open in the next few months.  The unique feature of this line is that the gauge of track from Poland will be Euro-standard which required Ukraine to upgrade about 8 kilometers of track from the Polish border.  Ukrainian and Polish engineers are testing the track while both countries are setting up new border control stations at the crossing. (Ministry of Infrastructure) 

Above: Russia’s first meeting as president of the UN Security Council was called a sideshow of misinformation on Wednesday.  The EU and 49 countries issued a joint statement calling out Kremlin abuse of power and lies regarding its genocidal program to deport Ukrainian children. 

Above: Foreign ambassadors to Russia presented their credentials to the tiny socially-distanced dictator yesterday.  Among his remarks, he lauded his close relationship with the Syrian dictator and blamed his war on the US and EU. He cited hygiene as a reason for not speaking with them personally.  His remarks were met with stony silence. (News24)

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

• China’s EU ambassador tried to tweak the record on China-Russia relationships. China is walking a tightrope between deep trade ties with the free world and Xi’s stated “unlimited friendship” with Russia. The Chinese recognize Ukraine’s sovereignty but support some unstated “common interests.”.
• The Kremlin is struggling to maintain loyalty among regional civil servants as it continues to place the onus of war funding on federal subjects. The Kremlin is developing a “program of privileges” for regional administrations to cater to civil servants with such perks as vending machines in administration buildings, secure preferential bank loans and free city parking. The independent news outlet Verstka reported that these measures are meant to mitigate growing discontent about the continued costs of the war.
• Regional authorities are making plans to fill draft quotas. Authorities in Samara and Chelyabinsk plan to conscript 3,500 residents and in Kursk Oblast plan to conscript 2,000 residents and confiscate IDs to prevent potential conscripts from leaving the area. St Petersburg officials held a meeting focusing on ways to incentivize foreign citizens to serve in the Russian military.
• The Moscow Times reported on April 5 that the head of the Russian Copper Company is the main sponsor of the “Ural” volunteer battalion operating in Ukraine. In September, the Kremlin instructed business leaders to finance volunteer formations, possibly out of mistrust of regional governments and the Russian MoD.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Above: Collecting scrap metal from enemy rocket launcher. (New York Times)

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 176,630 (+390)
• Tanks, 3,631 (+2)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 7,013 (+8)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,714/532 (+7/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems 281 (+1)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 306/292 (+0/1)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 2,287 (+4)
• Cruise missiles, 911 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,574 (+1)
• Special equipment, 302 (+3)

Above: Avdiivka, Donetsk. (New York Times)

Glory to Ukraine!
The 407th day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

Over the past day, the enemy launched 3 missile and 29 air strikes, launched 51 attacks from rocket salvo systems.

• The probability of long-term missile and air strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine remains high.
• The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka During the past day, more than 60 enemy attacks were repelled. Bakhmut, Avdiyivka and Maryinka remain at the epicenter of hostilities.
• During the day, the enemy shelled the settlements of Turya, Leonivka, and Pechenyuga in the Chernihiv region; Seredyna-Buda, Stukalyvka, Bezsalivka, and Volfyne in the Sumy region, as well as Odnorobivka, Udy, Chervona Zorya, Veterinarne, Kozacha Lopan, Lyptsi, Neskuchne, Ogirtseve, Zybine, and Bochkove in the Kharkiv
• On the Kupyansk direction, Topoli, Figolivka, Dvorichna, Masyutivka, Kupyansk, Kucherivka, Krokhmalne, Berestov of the Kharkiv region and Novoselivske and Stelmakhivka of the Luhansk region came under enemy fire.
• In the Lymansky direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of the settlement – Nevsky and Serebryansk forestry. Makiivka, Nevske, Belogorivka in the Luhansk region and Terny, Zarichne, Torske, Spirne and Rozdolivka in the Donetsk region were hit by artillery fire.
• In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy is trying to take full control of the city of Bakhmut, and continues to storm it. Also, during the past day, the enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Bohdanivka and Ivanivske settlements. Units of the defense forces repulsed about 20 enemy attacks on the indicated section of the front. More than 15 settlements were affected by enemy shelling, in particular, Vasyukivka, Minkivka, Orihovo-Vasylivka, Novomarkove, Hryhorivka, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Chasiv Yar, Novodmytrivka, Bila Gora, Kleban-Bik, Toretsk, and Shumy of the Donetsk
• The enemy carried out offensive actions in the Avdiivka and Marinka directions in the districts of Novokalynovoy, Avdiivka and Maryinka of the Donetsk region; he was not successful. He made more than 25 unsuccessful attacks near Maryinka alone. At the same time, Novokalynov, Berdychi, Lastochkina, Avdiivka, Netaylove, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, Georgiivka, Maryinka, and Pobyeda came under enemy fire.
• During the day, the enemy shelled the settlements of Novomykhailivka, Vugledar, Prechistivka and Velika Novosilka of the Donetsk
• In the Zaporizhzhya and Kherson directions, the enemy is building up defensive lines and positions in terms of fortification. Fired more than 35 settlements. Among them are Vremivka and Novopil of the Donetsk region; Malynivka, Zaliznychne, Gulyaipilske, Mala Tokmachka, Novopavlivka, Kamianske in the Zaporizhzhia region, as well as Novooleksandrivka, Havrylivka, Novoberyslav, Kozatske, Mykolaivka, Lviv, Ivanivka, Antonivka, Stepanivka, and Chornobayivka in the Kherson

Support the Armed Forces! United we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

Above: Spring has sprung in Kharkiv. (Suspilne)

• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued to engage in positional battles along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna frontline and southwest of Lysychansk on April 5. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults on Nevske (20km northwest of Kreminna), the Serebrianska forest area (10km south of Kreminna), and south of Spirne (17km southwest of Lysychansk).
• Geolocated footage showed Russian forces using the TOS-1 thermobaric rocket system and shelling Ukrainian positions south of Kreminna.
• Luhansk People’s Republic claimed on April 5 that Russian and LNR authorities will revive the Luhansk Aircraft Repair Plant, which has remained idle since 2014.  The plant will begin servicing Mi-8 and Mi-17 helicopter engines by the summer and fully reach pre-war performance in 1.5 years.

Above: Kostiantyn Pestushko 17th Kryvy Rih Tank Brigade. (AFU StratCom)

• Russian forces continued to make gains in and around Bakhmut on April 5. Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces have made advances north of Bakhmut, both north of Khromove (2km west of Bakhmut) and northeast of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut). Ukrainian forces repelled ground attacks in Bakhmut, northwest of Bakhmut near Bohdanivka (5km northwest), and southwest of Bakhmut near Ivanivske (2km southwest).
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline on April 5. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Avdiivka, northwest of Avdiivka near Novokalynove (11km northwest), west of Avdiivka near Sieverne (5km west), southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske (11km southwest), and west of Donetsk City near Marinka. Geolocated footage from April 4 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced to positions west of Novobakhmutivka north of Avdiivka.
• The Ukrainian State Border Guard Service stated on April 5 that of 4,000 Russian personnel currently in Belarus, about 2,000 will redeploy to frontlines in Donbas in an attempt to sustain faltering offensive operations and/or to defend against a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Above:  State Security Services reported “chaotic firing” on the Kherson region yesterday, particularly on settlements close to the Dnipro River. (State Security Services) 

• Russian forces continued defensive operations and shelled along the frontline in southern Ukraine on April 5. Russian troops in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts are building fortifications and defensive lines. Russian forces also conducted routine shelling throughout western Zaporizhia, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts.
• ISW assess Russian claims that Ukraine is shelling near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant as propaganda aimed at legitimizing Kremlin control of the plant. .
• Ukraine’s  Southern Operational Command stated that due to Ukrainian strikes, the enemy is losing its land-based strike capabilities and is increasingly turning to air-to-ground strikes and unmanned aerial vehicles to terrorize civilians. Authorities warned residents to avoid gathering on the streets to avoid drones that target civilian crowds with grenades.