Victory Chronicles
-DAY 413

Above: Spring at Pirohova Outdoor Architectural Museum.  As the war slows in tempo, bored media is turning its attention to the timing of the counteroffensive. National Security chief Danilov stated that the counteroffensive happens everyday. PM Shmyhal said the counteroffensive will start when Ukraine is good and ready and called for the West to flow weapons and supplies ASAP. The Defense Ministry is calling on foreign specialists in weapons maintenance and combat pilots to come to Ukraine to join the war effort. 

Above: The Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki met with US Vice President Harris in Washington this week in what resulted in a tightening of bonds between the politically emerging former Soviet satellite and the United States.  Mr Morawiecki declared that Poland is the leader of a new Europe after the failure of old Europe to deal with new realities.  “Poland wants to build the strongest army in Europe, that is why we want to cooperate with the most advanced defense industry in the world, which is the American industry.” The PM also stated that the VP spoke about significantly increasing US troop presence in Poland along with corresponding infrastructure projects. (Photo: Mateusz Morawiecki)

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

📸 We salute our Ukrainian friends as they return home after completing training to defend their freedom, loved ones and independence.

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦pic.twitter.com/58ESgO0pku

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) April 11, 2023

• The so-called Russian commissioner for children’s rights and wanted international war criminal is working hard to exculpate herself from the International Criminal Courts warrant for her arrest.  She published a 13-page cheerful propaganda pamphlet in English-language on April 11 evidently targeting an international audience.  She concludes that she “does not know what exactly the charges of the International Criminal Court are or what they are based on.”
• The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on April 11  that Putin’s monopoly party United Russia is sponsoring children’s “educational programs” in occupied territories to deport Ukrainian children to Russia for russian propaganda re-education.  In addition URC reported that, since the beginning of the year,  over 100,000 Ukrainian children from Donbas have been deported to Russia on sham medical claims. The program has deported almost 40 thousand children from Donetsk Oblast for medical treatment, out of 75 thousand children examined.  In Luhansk Oblast, 94,000 were “examined” and 66,000 were “diagnosed with pathology”, after which they were deported.  Doctors were demanding fees from parents in order not to “detect pathology”.
• Russians shouldn’t cancel their vacation plans yet.  Aeroflot has sent an Airbus A330 to Iran for maintenance and repair. Sanctions forced providers of authorized parts, repair and software upgrades out of the Russian market.  Russia simply stole all the leased Boings and Airbuses on its territory and is thought to be cannibalizing them to maintain a small fleet.
• Ukraine’s richest man, billionaire Rinat Akhmetov, announced that he is taking Russia to court to get compensation for the losses his companies have taken in eastern Ukraine since the 2014 invasion.  He pledged to invest any awarded compensation into building new industry.  Donetsk-based Akhmetov rose in the 1990 to be Ukraine’s biggest post-soviet oligarch, acquiring some of Ukraine largest companies– for example, coal and mineral mining, iron production – and backing presidential candidate Yanukovych during Ukraine’s orange revolution in 2004. He reportedly lost over half his wealth after the 2014 invasion
• The Russian State Duma adopted a bill to create a unified military enlistment database of Russian citizens eligible for the draft for use by recruitment offices to more efficiently fill conscription goals. The unified register will harvest personal identification information—including medical, educational, and residence history, foreign citizenship status, and insurance and tax data—from multiple Russian legal entities. Further, the new law forbids summoned individuals from leaving the country with a twenty day deadline for reporting for duty.

'We are witnessing the calm before the storm' – Former commanding general of US Army in Europe, Ben Hodges, shares his prediction of developments on battlefield, after a collection of leaked US intelligence documents suggested Ukraine's air defences could soon run out of missiles pic.twitter.com/RjE76KpCxx

— UATV English (@UATV_en) April 11, 2023

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Above: RIP to “Bunny”. Ukraine’s most famous tank trophy, a T-80BVM, nicknamed Bunny (top photo), was repaired and put into service against its owners.  It managed to destroy at least six enemy tanks before it was hit with 240mm mortar fire near Bakhmut recently. Ukrainian troops burned it rather than let it return to enemy hands. (Ukraine Weapons Tracker)

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 180,050 (+730)
• Tanks, 3,646 (+2)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 7,043 (+5)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,770/535 (+5/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 282 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 307/293 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 2334 (+2)
• Cruise missiles, 911 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,630 (+10)
• Special equipment, 319 (+3)

Above: Ukraine-controlled Chasiv Yar due west of Bakhmut. (The New York Times)

Glory to Ukraine!
The 413th day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• Over the past 24 hours, the enemy launched 1x missile and 21x air strikes, and conducted 33x MLRS attacks on Ukrainian settlements and on Ukrainian Defense Forces positions.
• The russian federation continues to violate the laws and customs of war, so the probability of missile and air strikes remains high across Ukraine.
• Despite heavy casualties and significant losses of equipment, the russian federation doesn’t give up its aggressive plans towards Ukraine. It focuses main efforts on offensive actions on Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Mar’yinka axes, where Ukrainian defenders repelled more 72x enemy attacks during the past day.
• During the past day, the enemy shelled Bleshnya, Kam’yans’ka Sloboda, and Hremyach (Chernihiv oblast); Volfyne, Katerynivka (Sumy oblast); Veterynarne, Hlyboke, Hatyshche, Vovchans’k, Zybyne, Volohivka, Okhrimivka, Chernyakiv, Komisarov, Budarky, and Dovzhanka (Kharkiv oblast).
• Kup’yans’k axis: the settlements of Kolodyazne, Kam’yanka, Topoli, Krasne Pershe, Ridkodub, Novomlyns’k, Dvorichna, Kindrasivka, Pishchane, and Berestov (Kharkiv oblast); Novoselivs’ke (Luhansk oblast) came under enemy fire.
• Lyman axis: during the past day, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensives in the vicinities of Biloghorivka and Spirne (Luhansk oblast).
• Makiivka, Nevs’ke, Biloghorivka (Luhansk oblast); Yampolivka, Tors’ke, and Spirne (Donetsk oblast) were subjects to enemy artillery fire.
• Bakhmut axis: russian forces make further attempts to seize full control over the town of Bakhmut, fighting continues. During the day, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the vicinities of Bohdanivka, Nikiforivka, Vasyukivka, Minkivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Novomarkovo, Markovo, Bakhmut, Khromovo, Chasiv Yar, Ivanovs’ke, Stupochki, Predtechyne, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanivka, Druzhba, Torets’k, and New York (Donetsk oblast) suffered from enemy attacks.
• Avdiivka and Mar’yinka axes: the enemy attempted unsuccessful offensives in the vicinities of Avdiivka, Pervomais’ke, Nevels’ke and Mar’yinka (Donetsk oblast). The heavy fighting continues in Mar’yinka area.
• At the same time, the settlements of Novokalynove, Orlivka, Avdiivka, Tonen’ke, Severne, Pervomais’ke, Netaylove, Karlivka, Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Mar’yinka, and Pobieda (Donetsk oblast) were subjects to enemy shelling.
• The occupiers shelled the vicinities of Novomykhailivka, Shakhtars’ke, Novoukrainka, Velyka Novosilka, Vuhledar, and Prechistivka (Donetsk oblast).
• Zaporizhzhia and Kherson axis: the enemy stays on the defensive. Over the past 24 hours, more than 30x Ukrainian settlements suffered enemy attacks. Among them are Vremivka and Novopil’ (Donetsk oblast); Novosilka, Olhivs’ke, Malynyvka, Chervone, Hulyaipole, Charivne, Mala Tokmachka, and Orihiv (Zaporizhzhia oblast); Zolota Balka, Kachkarivka, Beryslav, Kozats’ke, Burgunka, Ivanivka, Mykils’ke, Antonivka, Bilozerka, Dniprovs’ke, and Veletens’ke (Kherson oblast) and the city of Kherson.

Support the Armed Forces! United we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

Above: Road crews in Kharkiv Oblast continually repaired roads and bridges during the summer and into the fall counteroffensive last year.  They kept open “the road of life” that was used for resupply of the troops and evacuation of the injured.  Ukrainska Pravda wrote a story about the civil servants – postal workers, train conductors, road crews – who keep working out of duty in combat zones.  

• Russian forces appear to hold positions within 10km northeast of Kupyansk. Geolocated footage posted on April 11 indicates that Russian forces captured Lyman Pershyi (10km northeast of Kupyansk) and have likely occupied the settlement for a while.
• Combat activity has increased in the forests near Kreminna. Russian forces have made gains in the forest area south of Kreminna as of April 11. Geolocated footage posted on April 10 shows enemy VDV elements with TOS-1A thermobaric artillery operating 4km south of Kreminna, indicating that VDV elements have advanced in the surrounding forest. Additional geolocated footage posted on April 10 indicates that Russian forces have captured Ukrainian positions in the forest just over 5km directly south of Kreminna.

Above: Ukrainian troops in the thick of fighting around Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar. (National Review)

Video: A story on how Donetsk refugees are finding solace by caring for the Donetsk House at the Pirohova outdoor folk architecture museum near Kyhiv.  The museum is a huge and winding wonderland of traditional architecture arranged by region of Ukraine.  

IDPs from eastern #Ukraine met in an open-air Pyrohiv museum in Kyiv. They took spatulas, paint, and work gloves with them – to put the 'Donetsk house' back in order. UATV film crew also visited the clean-up in the Pyrohiv museum

🎥Watch here pic.twitter.com/xbEwyV7BTK

— UATV English (@UATV_en) April 12, 2023

• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks in and around Bakhmut on April 11. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks in Bakhmut, and near Khromove (2km west of Bakhmut), Bohdanivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut), and Hryhorivka (8km northwest of Bakhmut). Geolocated footage posted on April 3 shows that Russian forces have made marginal gains northwest of Ozaryanivka (15km south of Bakhmut).
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on April 11. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Avdiivka, Sieverne (6km west of Avdiivka), Pervomaiske (10km southwest of Avdiivka), Nevslske (15km southwest of Avdiivka), and Marinka. Russian forces are attempting to take Marinka to reach Kurakhove (18km west of Donetsk City) because Russian forces are unable to capture Avdiivka.

Above:  A Ukrainian defense bunker in Odesa region.  (The New York Times)

🚫 After annexation of #Crimea in 2014, from 500 to 800 thousand Russian citizens illegally moved there. After the de-occupation of the peninsula, they will all return home to Russia, – Tamila Tasheva, permanent representative of the President of Ukraine in Crimea pic.twitter.com/T7Sy2e8i7g

— UATV English (@UATV_en) April 11, 2023

• On Tuesday, Ukraine’s deputy minister responsible for seaports and maritime activity stated that Russia is causing trouble with the Black Sea Grain Initiative.  Under the agreement, Turkey, Ukraine and the invader-occupier have the right to inspect ships incoming to Turkish ports.  However, Russia is refusing to put Ukrainian ships in the queue for inspection.  Ukraine has raised the issue with the UN and Turkey, trying to stave off immediate disaster for Ukrainian farmers.
• Russian forces continue to focus on defensive operations in southern Ukraine. Satellite imagery from March 21 shows new trenches and dragon’s teeth fortifications near Sovkhoznoye, occupied Crimea.
• The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that the occupiers are preparing an emergency evacuation plan for collaborators and enemy workers from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. They were warned to be ready to evacuate with family members on a moment’s notice. The center earlier reported that the occupiers are carrying out extreme measures including imprisonment and torture of plant employees who refuse Russian passports.

The flight of our MiG-29 pilot at low altitude pic.twitter.com/tRmQrqf29h

— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) April 11, 2023