Victory Chronicles
-DAY 427

Above: According to the documents leaked by the American serviceman, twelve Ukrainian combat brigades of about 4,000 soldiers each are training for the counteroffensive, to be ready by the end of April.  NATO allies are training and supplying nine of those brigades. (MIL.IN.UA)

Above: April 26 1986, doomed firefighters prepare to enter a burning reactor.  Moscow’s immediate reaction to the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant disaster was a cover-up, quickly followed by a propaganda campaign when the truth came out.  Millions of people were exposed to fallout for days without a word from their government. Nothing has changed in Moscow’s disregard for human life and public welfare. (General Staff)

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

• A prominent Russian ultranationalist parliamentarian in Putin’s United Russia Party echoed ultra-nationalist sentiment that Russia needs to bring back the good old soviet “Enemy of the People” concept wherein the state can suppress anyone it wants to.  So far, Putin seems hesitant to go full Stalin on his subjects.  ISW assesses that Putin would rather control minds than wage a broad campaign of oppression and notes that Putin has never rebuilt an internal repression apparatus equivalent to the KGB, Interior Ministry forces, and the Red Army.
• Several prominent Russian civil rights groups issued a legal challenge to the Russian censorship law against discrediting the Russian military. Lawyers filed 10 complaints against the law to the Russian Constitutional Court in hopes that the court will rule the law unconstitutional.
• The Russian MoD is sweetening incentives for prisoners to fight in Ukraine. The New York Times reported that about 50 thousand prisoners have gone to Ukraine on the promise of a pardon if they survive for six months.  Now, Moscow is offering huge monthly salaries and generous disability and survivor benefits.  Some prisoners are attracted by offers for medical treatment of endemic prison disease like hepatitis, AIDS and tuberculosis.  In the words of one prisoner who enlisted to get HIV drugs,  “I understood I would have a quick death or a slow death. I chose a quick death.”

COUNTER OFFENSIVE

• The stakes could not be higher for Ukraine’s coming counteroffensive and there is no consensus among analysts on probable outcomes. The West is surging weapons and equipment in the eleventh hour, putting a tremendous burden on Ukraine to integrate in a short timeframe.
• There are serious questions on whether the supply of ammunition will be adequate given Bakhmut’s high consumption rate, dwindling supplies among allies and long timelines for production scaling. And there is still the question of fire range.  The West is still not providing weapons systems that can be used to push invaders back from long ranges and it’s not clear what, if any, capabilities Ukraine is developing internally..
• Some top military leaders are optimistic that Ukraine can push the invaders to a point that will force Moscow to come to the table, at least for a semantic “ceasefire” wherein neither side would embrace a final resolution and would scramble to prepare for renewed conflict.
• Others are doubtful that Ukraine can overcome Russian superiority in terms of sheer numbers of bodies, planes, tanks and artillery plus heavily mined defensive fortifications and that the war will lead to a frozen conflict similar to the last eight years before the invasion.
• Putin is heavily betting that Western support will fizzle if his forces can hold back Ukraine long enough. As quoted by the New York Times, a senior European official said that the chance that Putin will back down on anything less than full Ukrainian subjugation is “less than zero”. This view believes that the capacity for the Russian public to absorb losses is bottomless and will withstand another major mobilization and tens of thousands of deaths in the name of the motherland.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Above: General Staff

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 188,410 (+640)
• Tanks, 3,692 (+4)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 7,162 (+11)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,877/539 (+14/0)
• Anti-aircraft systems, 292 (+1)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 308/294 (0)
• Unmanned aerial vehicles, 2,440 (+3)
• Cruise missiles, 911 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,792 (+8)
• Special equipment, 352 (+7)

Above:  Regional history museum in Kupyansk, Kharkiv. The enemy sent missiles into Kupyansk this morning, killing and injuring civilians. (Ukrnews)

Glory to Ukraine!
The 427th day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• The russian federation continues to wage a war of aggression. Despite the significant losses, they do not give up plans to occupy our territory. Strikes and fires at both military and civilian targets.
• During the past day, the enemy launched 3x rocket strikes, carried out 13x airstrikes and fired 49x shots from MLRS at the positions of our troops and the critical infrastructure of populated areas.
• Two rockets from S-300 air defense systems were aimed at the center of the peaceful city of Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast. There are dead and wounded among the civilian population, the building of the local history museum was destroyed, next to which there is no military object, and other civilian infrastructure was damaged.
• The enemy is concentrating its main efforts on conducting offensive actions on the Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Mar’yinka axes. The units of the defense forces of Ukraine repelled 39x enemy attacks on the specified areas of the front during the past day. The fiercest battles continue for Bakhmut and Mar’’yinka.
• During the day, the enemy carried out artillery and mortar attacks on the settlements of Leonivka, Chernihiv Oblast; Seredyna-Buda, Korenyok, Stukalyvka, Iskriskivshchyna, Novoivanivka, Volfyne, Pavlivka, Kostyantynivka, and Basivka in the Sumy Oblast, as well as Udy, Veterinarne, Zelene, Neskuchne, Strelecha, Ohirtseve, Gatyshche, and Ambarne in the Kharkiv
• Kupyansk axis: Topoli, Kam’ianka, Krasne Pershe, Figolivka, Novomlynsk, Dvorichna, Liman Pershiy, Kupyansk and Kislivka of the Kharkiv Oblast were subjected to enemy artillery and mortar fire.
• Lyman axis: Novoselivske, Nevske, Dibrova, Belogorivka of the Luhansk Oblast and Torske, Yampil, Siversk, Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne and Pereizne of the Donetsk Oblast were hit by artillery fire.
• Bakhmut axis: Vasyukivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Markove, Hryhorivka, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Chasiv Yar, Bila Gora, Severnye and New York of the Donetsk Oblast were affected by enemy shelling.
• Avdiivka axis: Shelled settlements near the contact line, in particular, Novobakhmutivka, Novokalynove, Avdiivka, Lastochkine, Stepove, Tonenke, Vodyane, Netaylove, Pervomaiske, Karlivka and Nevelske of the Donetsk
• Mar’yinka axis: Georgiivka, Mar’yinka, Pobyeda, Novomykhailivka and Paraskoviivka of the Donetsk Oblast got under enemy fire.
• Shakhtars’ke axis: the enemy shelled the settlements of Vugledar, Yehorivka, Pavlivka, Prechistivka, Novoukrayinka, Zolota Niva, Novomayorske, Shakhtarske, Neskuchne and Velika Novosilka of the Donetsk
• Zaporizhzhia and Kherson axes:russians shelled more than 40x settlement Among them are Malynyvka, Mala Tokmachka, Novoandriivka, Mali Shcherbaki, Plavni of the Zaporizhia Oblast and Kozatsk, Odradokamyanka, Olhivka, Lviv, Kizomys, as well as the city of Kherson. As a result of two guided air bombs hitting the settlement of Kizomys, more than 10x residential buildings of civilians were damaged. 2x – completely destroyed. The local church and other civil infrastructure were also destroyed.

Support the Armed Forces! United we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

Above: General Staff

• Russian forces continue to fortify positions in the Kupyansk direction and did not conduct ground attacks in the Lyman Geolocated footage published on April 25 indicates that Russian forces likely captured Karmazynivka (13km southwest of Svatove). Russian forces are attempting to push Ukrainians forces out of their positions in the Serebrianska forest area (11km south of Kreminna) in order to set conditions for further attacks in the Lyman direction. Russian forces in eastern Ukraine formed “Storm” infantry units from each brigade or regiment reinforced with tanks, thermobaric artillery, and mortars and anti-tank units.

Above: The fund Povernys Zhyvym (Come Back Alive) delivered 1500 machine guns to Fortress Bakhmut.  (Vilne Radio)

• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks in and around Bakhmut on April 24. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Bohdanivka (5km northwest of Bakhmut), Novomarkove, Khromove (immediately northwest of Bakhmut) and Klishchiivka (5km south of Bakhmut).
• Geolocated footage posted on April 24 shows that Wagner Group forces made marginal advances southwest of the Bakhmut-2 rail station in western Bakhmut. Wagner Group forces can no longer conduct combat operations without support from increasingly active Russian Airborne and special purposes units.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a localized counterattack northwest of Bakhmut, likely to alleviate pressure against the logistics line passing through Khromove. Geolocated footage posted on April 25 shows Ukrainian forces overtaking Russian positions north of the O0504 Khromove-Chasiv Yar highway.
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on April 25. Geolocated footage from the Donetsk People’s Republic People’s Militia on April 21 shows that Russian forces advanced east towards Nevelske (14km southwest of Avdiivka) Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Novokalynove (9km north of Avdiivka), Stepove (3km northwest of Avdiivka), Sieverne (6km west of Avdiivka, Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka), Marinka (immediately west of Donetsk City), and Novomykhailivka (10km southwest of Donetsk City).

Above: General Staff

• A Ukrainian military official claimed on April 25 that Ukrainian forces are achieving “impressive results” in counter-battery combat against Russian forces in the temporarily-occupied eastern bank of the Dnipro River.  Ukrainian forces hit and destroyed Russian artillery systems, tanks, armored vehicles, and air defense systems. Ukrainian forces are working to clear the frontline on the east bank in a “counter-battery mode.”  Russian forces are evacuating civilians from the Dnipro River bank area to move in Russian units, which is simplifying Ukrainian operations.
• Russian milbloggers continued to issue vehement denials on April 25 that Ukrainian forces established a beachhead on the east bank of Kherson Ukrainian officials aren’t offering information, stating that Ukrainian forces frequently carry out raids on the east bank, most immediately to reduce daily shelling on civilian targets along the west bank of the Dnipro River.
• Ukrainian partisans from Atesh destroyed a military checkpoint near Oleshky, Kherson, using “home-made” explosive devices. As a result, a squad of Rosgvard on duty was eliminated.