Victory Chronicles
-DAY 464

Above: Satellite imagery from May confirms that Belarus is making major upgrades to the  Pribytky air force base near Gomel. (Ukraine.UA)

Above: The distance from Gomel, Belarus, to the Ukrainian border in Chernihiv Oblast is about 40 kilometers.  Gomel is about 140 kilometers north-northeast of Chornobyl and received the largest amount of radiation of any populated area from the Soviet nuclear power plant catastrophe in 1986. 

Above: On Thursday, anti-Kremlin Russian paramilitary units made incursions into Bilhorod at a border point east of the incursion last week.  (War Mapper)

• President Zelensky laid out the only rational roadmap for Ukraine to become fully integrated with Europe. He called for allies to invite Ukraine to the EU and to NATO at the NATO summit in Vilnius this summer, and provide security guarantees on the road to accession.  No one doubts that security for Europe will not be achieved until Ukraine is fully integrated.  It is just a matter of how fast or slow that integration takes place, ergo, how long Russia has to try to tear Ukraine to shreds.  
• The European Investment Bank will grant Ukraine €50 million to replace destroyed bridges that impair population mobility in the conflict zone.  Ukraine’s ministry in charge of rebuilding said, “Destroyed roads and bridges can cost lives in wartime: ambulance, rescue or repair crew will not have time to arrive.” Russia has destroyed at least 346 bridges in the last sixteen months. Ukraine has repaired 12 and set up 85 temporary crossings. 
• Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on June 1 that, contrary to Western perceptions, Armenia is not Russia’s ally in its war against Ukraine. “This has never been said out loud, but I think it shows. In the war with Ukraine, we are not an ally of Russia…And it turns out that we are not an ally to anyone in this situation, which means we are vulnerable.” We strongly believe that neutrality on the subject of Russian destructive imperialism is not neutral.  It’s anti-human.  
• Elements of right-wing Russian paramilitary units conducted another raid into Bilhord Oblast on June 1. Geolocated footage published on June 1 shows these personnel operating near Novaya Tavolzhanka (3.5km from the Russian-Ukrainian border) and striking Russian positions near the there and Shebekino, Belgorod (7km from the Russian-Ukrainian border). One leader stated that the “second phase” of its operations has begun. Belgorod Oblast Governor denied they were there.  Russian milbloggers claimed that the anti-Putin formations were roughly the size of a company and had tanks as well as other armored fighting vehicles. ISW assessed that the reported company size elements conducting these operations indicate that these operations in Belgorod Oblast are doctrinally raids, which, according to US Army doctrine, are small scale assault operations involving swift entry into hostile territory to secure information, disrupt hostile forces, or destroy installations.
• Government authorities in Russia from St Petersburg to Sakhalin have announced military training programs for school children, in particular, on the assembly and use of drones to support the next generation of aggression.  
• Putin said that the mandatory medical filtration program of children in occupied territories had produced good results, that is, filtered large numbers of Ukrainian kids to Russia under the pretense of medical treatment. He ordered the program be expanded to adults, likely as means to intensify force generation efforts in occupied areas. 

Above: The Defense Post

Above:  Air Force of Ukraine daily report.  On the night of June 1 to 2, DESTROYED: (21) Shahid-136/131 strike drones; (15) cruise missiles Kh-1.1/Kh-555. 

Above: Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022, with daily additions

 

ITEM	QTY	▲
Liquidated personnel	208910	+540
Tanks	3819	+15
Armored personnel vehicles	7490	+12
Artillery systems/ MLRS	3501/575	+27/0
Anti-aircraft systems	335	+2
Aircraft/ helicopters	313/298
Unmanned aerial vehicles	3137	+6
Cruise missiles	1117	+10
Warships/ boats	18
Vehicles and fuel tanks	6267	+28
Special equipment	465	+7

 

General Staff on Facebook

Above:  “Shelling almost every day: this is how the resort city of Ochakiv looks today”. (Adminov)

• Russian attacked Kyiv overnight on June 2 with (15) cruise missiles and more than (30) Iranian-made Shahed drones.  All of the drones were shot down by Ukrainian air defenses. Ukraine has stated it cannot strike launch points of Russian Iskander missiles in Russia due to its obligation to not hit Russia with Western-provided weapons.
• Interfax reported that the Kyiv City Military Administration said Friday morning, “The terror of Kyiv with air attacks continues. Over the past 6 days, the Rashists have already carried out the 6th air strike on the city! And each time the enemy changed weapons… This time the attack was combined – drones and cruise missiles at the same time. The missiles were launched from strategic bombers Tu -95MS from the Caspian region, probably with cruise missiles of the X-101/555 type.”
• Russians hit Kharkiv, massively shelling Vovhcnask with civilian casualties. Strikes on an industrial zone near Kharkiv city caused injuries. 
• The Donetsk Military Administration reported confirmed two deaths in Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar as a result of shelling, an unconfirmed death in Vuhledar and at least 12 injuries. 
• Overnight the governor of Dnipropetrovsk region said that the city of Nikopol had been struck. 
• Yesterday the occupiers hit 81 locations in Kherson Oblast, with mortars, artillery, GRADs, ATGMs, drones and aircraft fire; 16 wounded. 
• In Mykolaiv, the enemy sent a drone swarm that was destroyed by anti-aircraft defense. The enemy shelled the port city of Ochakiv.

 

Above: Farmers are busy in Kharkiv despite security risks to ensure Ukraine’s food security. Spring rains forced sowing to be later than average this year, but farmers have already planted over 600 thousand hectares including grains, legumes, sunflowers and soybeans. (Kharkiv ODA)

• Russian forces continued offensive operations on the Svatove-Kupyansk line on June 1. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks west of Masyutivka (13km northeast of Kupyansk) and in the direction of Stelmakhivka (15km northwest of Svatove). Attacks west of Masyutivka likely indicate that Russian forces captured the settlement. Geolocated footage published on May 31 indicates that Russian forces made marginal gains southeast of Masyutivka.
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations near Kreminna on June 1. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Bilohorivka (11km south of Kreminna) and Spirne (26km south of Kreminna).

Above:  Ukrainian defenders in a Bushmaster Mine-Resistant Ambush-Protected Vehicle, near the front line city of Bakhmut, Donetsk. (Reuters)

Update:

🇷🇺 forces have advanced in the north of the frontline city of Marinka located on the edge of Donetsk city and the pre-2022 frontline. pic.twitter.com/ZL1btpCn9P

— War Mapper (@War_Mapper) June 2, 2023

• The tempo of Russian and Ukrainian offensive operations in the Bakhmut area remains low as of June 1. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northeast of Bakhmut) and Bila Hora (12km southwest of Bakhmut). Russian forces have transitioned to the defensive, decreased active operations, and increased artillery fire. Ukrainian forces maintain control over the southwestern outskirts and entrance to Bakhmut City.
• Wager claimed that only about 90 Wagnerites remain in Bakhmut and all will be gone by June 5. Their leader said that after rest and relaxation in the rear for a month, they will consider renewing frontline fighting if they can do so autonomously. 

Above: Ukrainian pilot fires a missile from his soviet-era MiG-29 over the Black Sea.  Ukrainian pilots must take extraordinary risks combating superior enemy air forces . “Our pilots fly on a knife’s edge,” says Col Volodymyr Lohachov, the head of the aviation development department of the Ukrainian Air Force. “But F-16 jets would allow us to operate beyond the enemy’s air defense systems.” (BBC)

• Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks along the southern axis on June 1. Russian forces continued to conduct regular indirect fire against Ukrainian-held settlements across the southern frontline.  Footage posted on May 31 shows enemy elements conducting artillery fire against Ukrainian positions in Novopil, Donetsk Oblast (30km east of Hulyaipole).
• The commander of the southern Tavria Defense Force Group published video and wrote in Telegram that his group performed 832 fire missions Wednesday, caused the loss of almost two companies of enemy troops and destroyed equipment including a tank, an IFV, a mortar, a howitzer and four ammo storage warehouses. 
• Moscow’s energy minister met with Kherson occupation authorities to plan for energy distribution schemes.  Currently, occupied Kherson receives energy from Crimea after connections with Ukrainian-controlled Kherson were severed.  The enemy energy minister claimed that the motherland has already constructed 250 electric power stations and 26 gas grids in occupied Kherson.  Donetsk Oblast occupation authorities are working with Moscow’s state road agency to build new roads in occupied Donetsk including within the southern “land bridge” region along the Black Sea. 
• Occupation officials confirmed that occupied territory elections will take place on September 10 and announced a number of prospective United Russia candidates from among occupation figures. United Russia recently staged primaries in occupied territory, claiming 446 thousand residents voted. It is a disturbing deja vu to watch the Communist Party playbook reenacted to perfection where, not long ago, Ukraine held free and fair multi-party elections.