Christoph Schiltz, a Brussels-based correspondent for the leading German news outlet Die Welt, described three possible scenarios for how Russia’s war against Ukraine could develop, based on assessments from military analysts.
In his analysis, Schiltz took into account Russia’s summer offensive and U.S. President Donald Trump’s shift away from supporting a peaceful resolution to the war.
“Colonel Markus Reisner, a military analyst at the Ministry of Defense in Vienna, noted that Russia’s current territorial gains are not necessarily decisive. From Russia’s point of view, the outcome of the war will be determined by resource consumption. The key question, according to Reisner, is not how long Russia can hold out, but how long Ukraine can,” the text reads.
The first scenario is called “The West gets serious.” In this case, Western leaders would ignore Putin’s nuclear threats, provide Ukraine with modern weapons for defense, and increase economic sanctions on Russia. Eventually, Moscow would lose access to modern technologies, international payment systems, and significant energy revenues. As a result, the Kremlin would likely have to halt its military actions, with troops remaining at the front line for negotiations. However, Schiltz believes this scenario is unrealistic, as Ukraine’s partners are not ready to take such decisive steps.
The second scenario is “A clear victory for Putin.” In this situation, the U.S. would stop its active involvement in the war and limit its support to intelligence sharing. Without help from Washington, Kyiv would be “doomed in the long run.” The Kremlin would be able to seize much more territory, and Ukraine would lose access to the sea. A demilitarized zone would be created along the Dnipro River. Ukraine’s president would be removed from power, and a new government would have only limited sovereignty.
Schiltz considers this scenario much more realistic than the first one, estimating its likelihood at around 35 percent. He argues that, from Trump’s perspective, such an outcome would be financially attractive for the U.S. and beneficial for his personal business interests.
The third scenario is “An amputated Ukraine.” Schiltz describes this as the most likely. The fighting continues for a long time, and Ukraine increasingly shifts to defensive actions due to lack of sufficient Western support. Russian forces capture more territory, possibly even Kharkiv. Under pressure from the West, Kyiv is forced to enter negotiations.
In any case, Schiltz writes, Ukraine’s negotiating position would be weak. It would have lost too much land. Additionally, the United States and frustrated former supporters of Ukraine in the European Union would prefer a terrible end to endless horror.
Ukraine would be forced to make major concessions, and the war would become “frozen” along the front line for an indefinite period. A large demilitarized zone might be created, but no peace treaty would be signed.
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