Germany warns: War shifts NATO dynamics, Kremlin eyes expansion

Russia is attempting to test NATO’s resolve and gradually expand the conflict beyond Ukraine, according to Bruno Kahl, head of German intelligence, as reported by Reuters.

“[Kahl’s] agency had clear intelligence indications that Russian officials believed the collective defence obligations enshrined in the NATO treaty no longer had practical force,” the text reads.

Kahl’s warning comes amid a marked shift in the behavior of countries like Germany since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion in Ukraine in 2022. The war, the biggest on the European continent since World War II, has prompted Germany – historically cautious in military affairs – to adopt a more assertive stance on defense and intelligence cooperation within NATO.

“We are quite certain, and we have intelligence showing it,” he said.

However, Kahl clarified this doesn’t mean Germany expects Russian tank armies to move westward. 

“But we see that NATO’s collective defence promise is to be tested,” he said. 

The Kremlin anticipates confrontations that won’t escalate into full-scale war but will instead serve as a test for the United States: whether it will support its allies in accordance with Article 5 of the NATO treaty.

“They don’t need to dispatch armies of tanks for that. It’s enough to send little green men to Estonia to protect supposedly oppressed Russian minorities,” he said.

According to Kahl, his contacts with American counterparts confirmed that the U.S. takes the Russian threat seriously. 

“They take it as seriously as us, thank God,” he said.

Earlier, General Carsten Breuer, who heads the German Armed Forces General Staff, said that Russia could attack NATO within the next four years.

Conversely, Gabrielius Landsbergis, former Foreign Affairs Minister of Lithuania, wrote in his column that the West is still “asleep” regarding the Russian threat, despite Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine and hybrid attacks on NATO territory.