Peter Dickinson: A strong Ukraine is the only realistic security guarantee against Russia

by Peter Dickinson, UK journalist and researcher, editor of Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service and publisher of Business Ukraine Magazine and Lviv Today magazine

Source: Atlantic Council

Western leaders were in upbeat mood on Monday evening following their unprecedented White House summit with US President Donald Trump. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said it had been his “best meeting” to date with the US leader. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer praised the talks as “good and productive,” while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz commented that the Washington DC gathering had “exceeded expectations.”

Despite this positive spin, the White House talks did not result in any specific steps toward peace in Ukraine. Instead, the meeting was primarily an opportunity for Ukraine, Europe, and the United States to demonstrate their unity in the aftermath of Trump’s recent summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The most significant outcome to emerge from Monday’s discussions was a commitment from Trump that the United States would contribute to security guarantees for Ukraine. The British PM, who has been pressing for a US role in security guarantees for months, hailed the news as a “breakthrough.” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte shared Starmer’s enthusiasm, calling Trump’s willingness to participate in security guarantees a “big step.”

This congratulatory mood may have been somewhat premature. In reality, it remains far from clear exactly what kind of security commitments Trump has in mind. Hours after hosting the White House gathering, the US leader was already attempting to downplay expectations by offering his assurances that no American troops would be deployed to Ukraine.

European officials have promised to provide greater clarity over potential security guarantees in the coming weeks. Intensive discussions are already underway, with the aim of establishing how any guarantees might work in practice. Military planners charged with this task will face an array of challenges. Crucially, they must identify triggers for potential Western military involvement while also determining the rules of engagement for any European soldiers involved in the monitoring of a future peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.

The debate over security guarantees and the potential deployment of a European “reassurance force” to monitor a ceasefire in Ukraine has been underway since early 2025. For the past six months, Britain and France have led efforts to form a so-called “Coalition of the Willing,” but neither country has so far been unable to define exactly what this coalition is willing to do. Instead, the entire issue of Western security guarantees for Ukraine remains shrouded in ambiguity.

At this stage, we have more questions than answers. If Western troops are deployed to Ukraine, would they be authorized to defend themselves, or would they be limited to a more passive role as observers reporting on ceasefire violations? If Russia attacks European military personnel in Ukraine, would this be treated as an act of war against the countries in question? A great many other practical matters in the military and political spheres must also be addressed before any potential participating country will be ready to sign up for what promises to be a long-term and high-risk foreign policy commitment.

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