‘Russia 2032 Scenarios’: Ukrainian analysts outline Russia’s future

A group of Ukrainian researchers from the independent Sahaidachnyi Security Center has released an analytical report titled, “Russia 2032 Scenarios: A Decade Post Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine.”

An excerpt reads: “The 2022 invasion of Ukraine marked a turning point in human history, challenging the global order and Western views of Russia. Ukraine’s long history of complex relations with Russia offers crucial insights into its neighbor’s national character and aspirations.” 

The experts outlined four possible scenarios for Russia over the decade following the full-scale invasion, providing a clearer framework to guide Western policy in response to this evolving threat.

The first scenario, “The Rise of a Totalitarian Superstate,” envisions Russia by 2032 having perfected digital authoritarianism and expanded its global influence — especially if Western sanctions are weakened.

The second, “A Weakened, Isolated Fortress,” describes Russia as a militarized, repressive, but stagnant state that relies on nuclear weapons and acts as a regional destabilizer, yet lacks global power.

The third, “A Democratic Russia — With a Catch,” explores the possibility of democratization but warns that without true de-imperialization, Russia may remain nationalist and unpredictable.

The fourth scenario, “Finalization of the Imperial Collapse,” predicts Russia’s disintegration by 2032, driven mainly by economic divisions and internal dissatisfaction rather than ethnic separatism.

Each of these scenarios carries significant implications for global security, influencing Europe’s future and the balance of power in the 21st century.

“Russia’s relentless expansionism, its challenge to the global order, and its role in fueling geopolitical turmoil make its future one of the most pressing questions of our time. The stakes are immense — not just for Ukraine and Europe, but for the world,” the analysts said.

Read the full report at the link.