Timothy Ash: What wakes Putin up in a cold sweat?

by Timothy Ash, a British economist covering Europe, the Middle East and Africa

Source: Ash on Substack

Russia launched a high cost Oreshnik ICBM over night at a target in Lviv. The Oreshnik is highly effective but also very high cost, and from a cost benefit analysis it makes zero sense for these to be deployed in Ukraine. Indeed, the battle damage reports suggest relatively limited damage. 

The deployment of the Oreshnik therefore seemed more a PR exercise, perhaps aimed at the Trump administration signalling that Russia is unhappy more broadly about the state of play in the world — Trump’s efforts in Venezuela, the capture of a Russian flagged vessel in the North Atlantic plus the new round of demonstrations in Iran.

Russia will no doubt see a U.S. hand active in Iran — well it kind of is, given last year’s US airstrikes against Iran and Trump’s warnings to the regime in Tehran not to use excessive force against demonstrators.

Viewed from Moscow US actions, even under Trump, would appear to be following a very familiar Western script of engineered regime change targeted at Putin’s authoritarian friends and allies. Therein the fall of Maduro, looks to be just the latest in a serious of Western interventions against Moscow friendly regimes, back to Gaddaffi, Saddam Hussein, Assad, Yanukovych, even Nasrullah in Lebanon. 

I have often said that Putin wakes up every morning thinking about how he can screw over Ukraine, and bring it back under Russia’s orbit. It’s the number one issue for Putin. But one other thing that would wake Putin up from his sleep in a cold sweat is the prospect of another autocrat being deposed — when that autocrat could well be himself. The irony is that Putin himself is now far advanced in regime change operations across the West be that funding Brexit, Trump 16’, Georgescu, Orban, Fico, Le Pen, the AfD, et al. But Trump’s actions against Maduro just appear to be too close to the bone for Putin, especially knowing that Iran and Cuba are now firmly in the firing line.

I doubt all this will make Putin more willing to cut a peace deal in Ukraine. While Putin is eager to save his own arse. I still think that Ukraine is far too an emotional issue for him to give up just yet. Sure with Trump’s $50 a barrel oil price target hurting the Russian economy’s bottom line things are getting tight in terms of nickel and cents for Putin’s war machine but at the same time I think Trump offers Putin just enough to make him think total victory against Ukraine is just around the corner.

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