MSC warns Russia could threaten NATO within six months of Ukraine ceasefire

European intelligence agencies say Russia could rebuild its forces for a local conflict against a neighboring country as soon as six months after a potential ceasefire in Ukraine.

This assessment comes from a new report by the Munich Security Conference (MSC), an annual document prepared ahead of the forum that evaluates current international security threats.

“Moscow’s propaganda machine continues to frame the war as a civilizational struggle between Russia and the West, seeking to rally support at home and abroad. Its persistent nuclear saber-rattling is only the most brazen reminder that the military threat extends well beyond Ukraine,” the report says.

For a larger “regional war” in the Baltic region that have NATO-member countries, the Kremlin could be ready within two years.

Analysts note that Russia has intensified hybrid activity in Europe. In the fall of 2025, around 20 Russian drones violated Polish airspace, and three MiG-31 jets entered Estonian airspace, prompting NATO consultations under Article 4.

At the same time, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump made it clear that protecting Europe and supporting Ukraine is the responsibility of European nations themselves.

Experts warn that without active European leadership, the continent risks being caught in a gray zone between rival powers, primarily the U.S. and China, and losing control over its own security.

For context, Paul Grod, President of the Ukrainian World Congress (UWC), will participate in the Munich Security Conference, and the UWC will serve as an official partner of Ukraine House, which will operate for the first time within the international forum.