Valerii Zaluzhnyi: How to avoid war

by Valerii Zaluzhnyi, former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and current Ambassador to the UK

Source: Ukrainska Pravda, citing the Polish Eastern Flank Institute

The war in Ukraine was the result of a whole complex of mistakes in foreign policy that had been made since independence. Since the early 1990s, our leadership has declared the so-called multi-vector policy, the intention to have good relations with both the West and Russia, trying to benefit from both directions. In addition to the fact that such a policy led the country to great trouble and did not allow it to resist external influences for a long time, this allowed us to receive economic benefits from both Europe and the US (through loans and investments), as well as to take advantage of preferential prices for Russian gas and have access to Russian markets. Russia, meanwhile, was systematically increasing its influence within the country, supporting loyal political parties and individual figures, as well as through economic pressure — through energy carriers and investing in strategic enterprises, propaganda in the media, and support for the Russian-speaking environment.

But perhaps the most important mistake was precisely the underestimation of Russia and excessive trust in the security guarantees established by the Budapest Memorandum. When the war began in 2014, none of the major powers came to the rescue, limiting themselves to sanctions against Russia. This shows that international agreements without clear security on the “ground” are simply an empty place, on which, looking for space, war will surely come.

We mention Ukraine today precisely because of the situation our country finds itself in, in the 4th year of a full-scale war, the likes of which humanity has not yet seen in the 21st century. I cannot say whether everything described above applies to anyone else besides Ukraine. There is only one thing we can say: Russia is militarizing today, its economy is running on military rails, and its society is being pumped with propaganda. What it did to you, its neighbors, yesterday is still worth checking, and why it is doing it today is something that needs to be clarified. And today, Russians see no reason why they should stop. The war in the center of Europe has not only affected every Ukrainian, it has become global, with the roar of the old world collapsing, and is about to knock on neighbor’s door. A neighbor who lives with us on the same small floor, called Europe. We will talk about it. About Europe — as a neighbor in a global war.

In the fourth year of the war, it can be stated with confidence that the events that began precisely in February 2022, like any major war, led to the collapse of the ideas and theories that held up the very notion about peace. All those who thought they knew everything, or those who considered worry a panacea, were disappointed, even deeply. Everyone involved in this war, even those who watch it, saw something they had not planned and expected. Some even now, in the agony of disappointment in their own illusions, continue to claim that everything that is happening only concerns them. However, the truth is that for some it is grief and pain, and for others it is still a dry chronicle. However, it is definitely a whirlwind of events that will change the world forever.

What is happening today in this whirlpool that is gaining momentum with the tacit consent of the no longer existing old world?

On the night of September 27-28, 2025, 552 UAVs, at least 2 ballistic missiles, and at least 31 cruise missiles were used over the territory of Ukraine. The night of September 6-7 was the largest use of air attack weapons — 776 at the same time. Most recently, about two dozen Russian drones entered Poland, of which three or four were shot down using extremely expensive missiles.

Within a few days, Russian planes had calmly entered Estonian airspace. They were pursued by two Italy`s most modern fighters NATO F-35, that took off to intercept from an air base 50 km from Tallinn.

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