UKRAINIAN WORLD CONGRESS

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DAY 265

War Chronicles
-DAY 265

November 15,2022

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: MOSCOW PUSHING CONVERSATION TO CONTRIVED SUCCESS IN DONBAS

Above:  Ukrainian artillery near Bakhmut. Wagner’s unquenchable thirst for Bakhmut will intensify with redeployments from Kherson. (The Globe and Mail)

  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) escalated claims of Russian territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast on November 13 and 14, likely to emphasize that Russian forces are intensifying operations in Donetsk Oblast following withdrawal from the right bank of Kherson Oblast.
  • The Russian MoD is likely making more concrete territorial claims in order to set information conditions to frame Russian successes in Donetsk Oblast and detract from discontent regarding losses in Kherson
  • Russian milbloggers seized on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s November 14 visit to Kherson City to criticize Russian military capacity more substantively than in previous days during the Russian withdrawal from the right bank of Kherson Oblast.
  • Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin continues to establish himself as a highly independent, Stalinist warlord in Russia, becoming a prominent figure within the nationalist pro-war community.
  • Putin decreed that foreign citizens can serve in the Russian armed forces on November 14. The decree also allows Russian officials to conscript Russian dual-nationals or foreigners with residence permits. Such provisions will allow the Kremlin to recruit forces internationally and among immigrant populations in Russia. Recruitment of foreigners can also ignite further ethno-religious conflicts that have been plaguing Russian ad hoc forces, however.
  • The aftermath of partial mobilization is continuing to have domestic social ramifications in Russia. Social media footage from November 13 shows a large group of mobilized servicemembers in Patriot Park, Moscow Oblast, protesting against the poor quality of their training and threatening their commander for disregarding training and material necessities.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: The enemy donated to Ukraine lots of old soviet ammo when it fled Kherson.  (Reuters)

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses for last 24 hours

  • Liquidated personnel, 82,080 (+710)
  • Tanks, 2,861 (+13)
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 5,773 (+25)
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,850/393 (+11/0)
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 208 (+2)
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 278/261 (0)
  • UAV operational-tactical level, 1,511 (+2)
  • Cruise missiles, 399 (0)
  • Warships/boats, 16 (0)
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,351 (+35)
  • Special equipment 160 (0)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Banksy confirmed he made eight murals in the ruins around round Kyiv.  (Reuters)

  • During the current day, the Russian occupiers launched 2 rocket and 16 air strikes, carried out 15 MLRS attacks.
  • In the Volyn and Polissya directions, the situation remains without significant changes. According to the available information, the military commissariat of the Brest region has announced a tender for the printing of 50,000 copies of mobilized order forms with the deadline of December 31 of the current year.
  • There is still a threat of missile and air strikes by the enemy, do not ignore air warning signals.
  • The enemy also such:
    • in the Slobozhanskyi direction – from mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of Ambarne, Anyskyne, Budarki, Vovchansk, Kamianka, Sosnivka and Yablunivka settlements of the Kharkiv oblast;
    • in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions – from artillery of various types, in the areas of Berestove, Kyslivka and Krokhmalne settlements of the Kharkiv oblast; Makiivka, Nevske and Stelmakhivka in the Luhansk oblast and Nevelske and Torske in the Donetsk oblast;
    • in the Bakhmut direction – from the entire range of artillery, in the areas of Andriivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Hryhorivka, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, Pivnichne and Spirne settlements of the Donetsk oblast;
    • in the Avdiivka direction – from artillery of various calibers, in Vodyane, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, and Pervomaisky dictricts of Donetsk oblast;
    • in the Novopavlivskyi direction – from artillery of various types, in the areas of Bohoyavlenka, Velyka Novosilka, Vremivka, Vuhledar, Novopil, Pavlivka and Prechystivka settlements in Donetsk oblast;
    • in the Zaporizhzhia direction – from mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Gulyaipole, Zaliznychne, Malynivka, Olhivske, Temyrivka of the Zaporizhzhia region.
    • In the Kherson direction, areas of Dudchany, Zolota Balka, Mykolaivka, Mylove and Chornobayivka settlements of the Kherson oblast were hit by artillery fire.

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: UAF General Staff

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to regain positions in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast.The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces stopped Russian assaults near Torske, about 16km due west of Kreminna.
  • Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line and clashed with Russian troops near Bilohorivka. Geolocated footage published on November 13 confirmed that Ukrainian forces liberated Makiivka, approximately 23km southwest of Svatove.
  • Ukrainian and Russian sources reported ongoing clashes in the direction of Novoselivske, Volodymyrivka, and Stelmakhivka (all just northwest of Svatove) in the direction of the R66 highway.
  • Ukrainian and Russian forces engaged in clashes northwest of Lysychansk.
  • Due to the difficult humanitarian situation in the Luhansk oblast, the occupiers plan to carry out a complete evacuation of the civilian population from the settlements of Kreminna, Siverodonetsk and Rubizhne deep into the temporarily occupied territories.

LUHANSK-DONETSK

Above: Ukrainian soldier having a smoke next to ammo near Bakhmut.  (The Guardian)

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces will likely recommit troops to Donetsk Oblast after leaving the right bank of Kherson Oblast, which will likely lead to an intensification of operations around Bakhmut, Donetsk City, and in western Donetsk Oblast.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) escalated claims of Russian territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast on November 13 and 14, likely to emphasize that Russian forces are intensifying operations in Donetsk Oblast following withdrawal from the right bank of Kherson Oblast.
  • The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces completed the capture of Mayorsk (20km south of Bakhmut) on November 13 and of Pavlivka (45km southwest of Donetsk City) on November 14 after several weeks of not making claims of Russian territorial gains.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Bakhmut, Bilohorivka (about 20km northeast of Bakhmut), Spirne (30km northeast of Bakhmut), Toretsk (25km southwest of Bakhmut), and Kurdyumivka (13km southwest of Bakhmut).
  • The Ukrainian government reported that Russian forces dropped prohibited chemical weapons, several K-51 aerosol grenades, on Ukrainian strongholds on November 14. The use of chemical weapons such as K-51 aerosol grenades is explicitly prohibited by the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).
  • Russian forces intensified offensive operations around Avdiivka–Donetsk City on November 13 and 14. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Krasnohorivka, Pervomaiske, and Vodiane, on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City, and Marinka and Novomykhailivka on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City.
  • Geolocated footage posted on November 12 showed that Russian forces advanced into northwestern outskirts of Opytne (about 12km northwest of Donetsk City), and Russian sources claimed that Russian troops are attempting to push Ukrainian forces farther west of the settlement.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above: Commander of southern operations Major General Andrii Kovalchuck marched into Kherson on Saturday.  Watch video here. (Ukrainska Pravda)

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces continued defensive actions on the left bank of Kherson Oblast on November 13 and 14. Geolocated satellite imagery posted on November 13 shows newly created Russian defensive lines along the left bank of the Dnipro, east of Beryslav around Hornostaivka (28km northeast of Beryslav), Liubymivka (8km southeast of Beryslav), and Petropavlivka (25km southeast of Beryslav).[46] Additional satellite imagery shows the development of Russian defensive lines in Lukyanivka (16km southeast of Beryslav) between October 8 and November 10.
  • Ukrainian forces notably struck Russian concentration areas on the left bank of Kherson Oblast on November 13 and 14 and targeted personnel concentrations in Dnipryany, Chaplynka, and Hola Prystan.
  • The spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Forces, Nataliya Humenyuk, stated that Russian forces struck an abandoned equipment concentration in Chornobaivka (just northwest of Kherson City) on November 13, which the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed was a strike on a Ukrainian command post. Ukrainian sources also stated that Russian forces conducted a mortar strike on November 14 on the private sector of Hornostaivka, a settlement on the left bank of the Dnipro River, because civilians refused to evacuate.
  • Russian sources widely claimed that Ukrainian troops launched a limited raid and attempted to land on the Kinburn Spit on the night of November 13 and 14. Russian milbloggers reported that Ukrainian landing groups formed in Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, and attempted to land on the Kinburn Spit at Pokrovske, but that Russian forces destroyed the grouping during the ensuing battle.[51] Ukrainian sources did not comment on these claims.
  • The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on November 14 that the Russian Duma Liberal Democratic deputies Leonid Slutsky, Vladimir Koshelev, and Vladimir Sibyagin are supervising Kherson occupation officials as they attempt to launch operations of the administrative center after officially moving the Kherson Oblast temporary administrative capital to Henichesk on November 12.
  • Russian occupation officials are continuing efforts to erode Ukrainian national identity among residents of occupied territories. Enerhodar Mayor Dmytro Orlov stated on November 14 that Russian occupation officials in Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast, destroyed Ukrainian history textbooks and literature.
  • The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on November 14 that the Commissioner for Children’s Rights under the Russian Presidential Administration, Maria Lvova-Belova, is personally responsible for the forced deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families for the purpose of forces assimilation into Russia.
  • In the city of Mariupol, the occupation authorities, instead of providing the minimum household needs of the population, are expanding the coverage area of propaganda sources. So, according to available information, the occupiers are launching the Mariupol-24 TV channel.



Above: Zelensky went to Kherson Monday, enraging enemy milbloggers. (NDTV)

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