Victory Chronicles
-DAY 310

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: RESOLUTION OF CONFLICT DEPENDS UPON WESTERN WEAPONS SUPPLY

Above: “Looking out for Shaheds”. (Defense of Ukraine)

• Russian forces conducted another massive series of missile strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure on December 29. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces launched 69 cruise missiles and 23 drones at Ukraine and that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 54 of the missiles and at least 11 of the drones.
• Russian forces struck civilian and infrastructure facilities in Lviv, Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, and Donetsk oblasts causing widespread disruptions to energy, heating, and water supplies.
• Ukraine’s GUR Chief Kyrylo Budanov stated that fighting in Ukraine is in a deadlock on December 29. In an interview with BBC, Budanov stated that both Russian and Ukrainian troops lack the resources or ability to move forward, stressing that Ukraine cannot defeat Russian troops without the supply of new and more advanced weapons systems.
• Russian political figures are proposing ways to punish draft dodgers including confiscation of property, restriction of the right to work in public service, formal designation as “foreign agents” and banning “traitors“ who left the country since February 24 from returning to Russia.
• Putin signed an order on December 29 establishing Russian-appointed prosecutors in occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia Oblasts.
• Russian military plans to transform the Machulishchy airfield in Belarus into a key Russian “logistics hub”.  This and ongoing work at the Baranovichi, Luninets airfields, and their adjacent infrastructure indicates Russian intention to establish a permanent military presence in Belarus. Russian military has 11,000 personnel and 400 pieces of equipment currently deployed in Belarus.

Video: General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: (Defense Express)

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses for last six days

• Liquidated personnel, 105,250 (+690
• Tanks, 3,026 (+8)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,059 (+12)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,010/423 (+6/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 212 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 283/268 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,740 (+23)
• Cruise missiles, 711 (+58)
• Warships/boats, 16 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,683 (+8)
• Special equipment, 180 (+1)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above:  Residential damage resulting from massive enemy missile and drone attacks yesterday.  This is what ruzzia is so afraid of – nice ladies in villages. (VOA News)

Glory to Ukraine! The three-hundred-tenth day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military large-scale invasion continues.

• Over the past day, the enemy launched 85 missiles and 35 air strikes, as well as launched 63 MLRS attacks.
• russian occupiers continue to terrorize the civilian population of Ukraine.
• On the Siverskyi and Slobozhanskyi directions, the areas of the settlements of Leonivka of the Chernihiv oblast were shelled with artillery; Pavlovka – in Sumy oblast; Hlyboke, Zelene, Ternova, Starytsa, Vovchansk, Bochkove and Chuhunivka in the Kharkiv The invaders also used army aircraft for the attack near Velyka Pysarivka, Sumy oblast.
• Areas of 17 settlements were affected by fire in the Kupiansk and Lyman Among them – Dvorichna, Vilshana, Kotlyarivka, Vyshneve and Kamianka of the Kharkiv oblast; Ploshchanka, Chervonopopivka, Nevske, Dibrova in the Luhansk oblast and Torske in the Donetsk oblast. The enemy struck with army aviation forces near Dibrova.
• Areas of 20 settlements were shelled in the Bakhmut In particular, Spirne, Berestov, Bilogorivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Pidgorodne, Bakhmut, Zalizne, New York, Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka of the Donetsk region. In addition, the occupiers deployed attack UAVs in the districts of Kurdyumivka, Mayorsk, and Zalizne.
• In the Avdiivka direction, the enemy inflicted fire damage near Avdiivka, Vesele, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka, Donetsk Airstrikes were recorded near Kamianka and Avdiivka.
• In the Novopavlivsk direction, the invaders were fighting with tanks and barrel artillery near Vuhledar, Prechystivka, Zolota Nyva, Velyka Novosilka, and Neskuchne, Donetsk An airstrike was carried out in the area of Mykilske.
• In the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson directions, more than 25 settlements came under the influence of fire. Among them are Stepove, Olhivske, Dorozhnyanka, Mala Tokmachka, Mali Shcherbaky, Myrne in the Zaporizhzhia oblast and Beryslav, Kozatske, Ivanivka, Chornobayivka and Stanislav in the Kherson Enemy operational-tactical and army aviation operated in the areas of Hulyaipole and Stepove of the Zaporizhzhia oblast and Novosilka – Kherson oblast.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above:  Crossing the Siversky-Donets River east of Kharkiv city under a destroyed bridge. (VOA News)

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna on December 29. Ukrainian forces have advanced 2.5km in the direction of Kreminna over the past week and are continuing offensive actions towards the settlement.
• Russian forces are transferring more equipment and personnel to the Kreminna area, including a substantial number of Wagner Group personnel.
• Ukrainian forces may capture Kreminna by the beginning of 2023. Information is circulating among officers of the Luhansk People’s Republic 2nd Army Corps that a significant part of the 2nd Army Corps will surrender if Ukrainian forces break through the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults northwest of Svatove near Stelmakhivka (16km northwest of Svatove) and Andriivka (16km west of Svatove) and northwest of Kreminna near Ploshchanka (17km northwest of Kreminna) and Chervonopopivka (6km north of Kreminna).

LUHANSK-DONETSK-ZAPORIZHZHIA

Above: Ukrainian 55th Artillery Brigade deploys a Howitzer M777 in the Battle of Bakhmut. (The Kyiv Independent)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut on December 29. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut; within 21km northeast of Bakhmut near Bilohorivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, and Pidhorodne; and within 13km south of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka.
• The rate of potential culmination of the Russian offensive on Bakhmut is likely being expedited by increased demands on already degraded personnel and equipment. Ukrainian forces repel up to 20 Russian assaults in the Bakhmut area daily.  Russian forces concentrated 40 percent of their artillery fire along the 200km long frontline that runs from Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast to Marinka, Donetsk Oblast at the expense of fire on Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on December 29. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Avdiivka and within 32km southwest of Avdiivka near Krasnohorivka, Marinka, and Pobieda.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA-CRIMEA

Above: Russian Empress Catherine statue knocked from her Odesa pedestal this week. The soviets removed the statue in 1920, then, in 2007, city authorities put it back when Odesa was quite russo-friendly.  A public poll in October 2022 showed that only 8% of Odesa residents wanted to keep the statue. (Euronews)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces in the Kherson direction are regrouping, reinforcing, and conducting positional defenses.  Ukrainian forces are detecting and neutralizing small Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups that try to cross the Dnipro River on a daily basis.
• Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian concentration areas in Zaporizhia Ukrainian strikes hit various Russian military assets and personnel concentrations in Tokmak, Tytove, Chernihivka, Polohy, and Berdyansk on December 27. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian personnel concentration in Berdyansk on December 28.
• Most likely, Ukrainian partisans blew up the Nova Kakhovka occupational police department head. Russian occupation authorities carried out another search raid for Ukrainian partisans in Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Ukrainian farmers in occupied Kherson Oblast are requesting that the occupation administration urgently address threats to the upcoming agricultural season as Russian occupation authorities have failed to provide the promised support to Ukrainian farmers.