Victory Chronicles
-DAY 175

Above: Luhansk Governor Serhiy Haidai reported that the orc headquarters in Lysychansk was destroyed, eliminating about 100 occupation forces.  Screenshot from video posted by Mr Haidai on Twitter

• Rf declared a state of emergency on Tuesday across Crimea in the wake of a wave of explosions this week at Saky and Hvareyska air force bases and at materiel depots near Dzhankoy.  Panicked invaders are locking down the peninsula to gain control over the deteriorating situation.  A line of cars 15 kilometers long is reported to be stacked up to exit Crimea via the Kerch Bridge.

• Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi said in a statement on Tuesday that russia is increasing long-range missile systems in Belarus.  Further, General Zaluzhnyi stated, “the enemy carries out approximately 700-800 shelling of our positions every day, using from 40 to 60 thousand pieces of ammunition. The enemy’s main efforts are concentrated on pushing our troops back from the Donetsk oblast. The most intense situation is now on the axis of Avdiivka-Pisky-Mariinka.”

Above:  To hide the numbers of actual war casualties, the enemy routinely leaves its dead on the battlefield.  Ukrainians collect the bodies where possible.  Photo via Telegraph

• Military experts believe that the high number of enemy casualties will probably prevent the invader from achieving basic objectives in the coming months.  American intelligence estimates that the enemy is losing about 500 killed or wounded everyday.  Sadly, Ukraine is suffering significant casualties, up to 200 per day in the most intense fighting around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk last month.

• Conservatively, according to US Undersecretary of Defense Colin Kahl, “… the Russians have probably taken 70 or 80,000 casualties in less than six months.”  The US estimates that the invaders have lost 20,000 dead including 5,000 from the Wagner Group. Ukraine estimates invader deaths at over 40,000 with a third of those forced constripts from occupied Donbas.

Above: Ukraine has proven exceptionally good at using US-supplied HIMARS to strike supply lines deep in occupied territory.  Photo via Moscow Times

• In an interesting analysis by military expert Phillips P OBrien, the author argues that wars are won and lost by weapons supply lines.  He points out that the Allies in WWII reduced Germany’s war capacity by denying war manufacturing inputs, destroying production facilities and supply lines.

• In Russia’s war on Ukraine, hope is for democratic allies to close down manufacturing inputs through sanctions.  While there are many loopholes, it appears that Western sanctions are biting into kremlin manufacturing capabilities, especially for war materiel requiring high tech components.  Ukraine has limited opportunity to strike deep into Russian territory to destroy manufacturing facilities with caveats placed on Western-supplied long-range artillery that it must not be used to strike Russia amid escalation fears.

• That leaves disruption of supply lines as Ukraine’s sole internally-controlled line of attack to disrupt enemy weapons supplies.  In an exclusive interview with The Guardian, Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Polodyak outlined Ukraine’s plan to “create chaos within Russian forces” by destroying supply lines deep in occupied territory.

• Regarding what appears to be strikes on the Crimean peninsula last week, Ukraine has not claimed responsibility, but hinted at saboteurs behind the lines.  Ru defense ministry claimed that Saky Airforce base explosions last week were the result of an accident, while explosions near Dzhankoya few days later were labeled sabotage.  Military analysts don’t agree on whether Ukraine has obtained longer-range missile capacity to hit targets hundreds of kilometers from the front lines.