Victory Chronicles
-DAY 434

Above: Ukrainian servicemen drill near the border with Belarus in Rivne Oblast, April 28, 2023.(National Review)

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

Above: May 9th is the biggest propaganda festival on Moscovia’s calendar.  Russia’s development seems to have been arrested in 1945 when the sustaining myth of Russian greatness in war was fabricated.  This year, the world is watching the Kremlin struggle with the narrative as the days of easy gas lighting global and domestic audiences are over. 

Russian authorities continue to scale back May 9 Victory Day celebrations citing security concerns.  More and more locations are announcing the beloved propaganda event of the year will be canceled. The media have been ordered to downplay Victory Day preparations. The annual children’s special “Immortal Regime” commemoration for those killed in war has been broadly canceled.

In a great article examining the Kremlin propaganda campaign surrounding the counteroffensive, Meduza exposed Moscow’s new instruction manual for media covering current events. Media are instructed not to downplay Ukraine as a formidable foe so that, if Moscow blocks the offensive, it is a great power; if not, Russia is defending against NATO and the entire Western World.  The manual also tells the media not to discuss state budgets, especially as concerns rebuilding in occupied territories.  Instead, to feature stories about public spending in “old regions”.  (Photo: Aljazeera)

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Above: Seen from Kerch, Crimea, smoke rising over an oil refinery in Taman Peninsula, Krasnodar. Russia. (New York Times)

Above: Google maps shows location of a five-alarm fire that was reported at an oil refinery on the Taman peninsula near the Kerch Strait Bridge.  We presume that authorities are searching the scene for cigarette butts. (NVU)

Russia🇷🇺: There has been an explosion of fuel tanks at the port of Taman in the Krasnodar Krai region near the Black Sea. Firefighters from five different brigades are working to extinguish the fire at the site ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/dPht56qdEc

— Belsat in English (@Belsat_Eng) May 3, 2023

In the Bryansk region, Russia, the railway track was blown up again. Three explosions occurred near the Snezhetskaya station while the train was moving. As a result of the explosion, 8 wagons overturned. There were 70 carriages on the train in total. pic.twitter.com/QfJKYJBFvi

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 2, 2023

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 191,940 (+520)
• Tanks, 3,702 (+1)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 7,199 (+6)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,946/544 (+16/0)
• Anti-aircraft systems, 300 (+2)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 308/294 (0)
• Unmanned aerial vehicles, 2,505 (+28)
• Cruise missiles, 947 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,865 (+14)
• Special equipment, 363 (+3)

Above: Ukraine’s emergency services announced that 1,234 people have been saved by emergency responders since the beginning of the year.  “For us, it’s not just a number, because every life is priceless. And every minute of our work is an invaluable chance to save someone with no margin for error.” (Ukrainian State Emergency Service)

Above: On the night of May 3, the enemy attacked civilians in Zaporizhzhia. Private houses were damaged, no casualties reported. Front-line settlements of the Zaporizhzhia region were under shelling for several hours. (Ukrainska Pravda)

Above: At 11am on Wednesday, the enemy sent missiles into a big box store in Kherson.  There were multiple casualties. (Ukraine World)

Glory to Ukraine!
The 434th day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• Tonight, russian terrorists once again attacked with “Shahed-136/131” kamikaze drones. Information regarding the consequences of this attack is currently being clarified.
• Last day, the enemy launched 3x missile strikes, 39x air strikes and launched 63 rounds from MLRS on the positions of our troops and populated areas. Civilians suffered, private residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure were destroyed and damaged.
• The threat of the enemy launching missile and air strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine remains high.
• The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on conducting offensive actions on the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Mar’yinka axes – they have carried out more than 30x attacks. Bakhmut and Mar’yinka remain at the epicenter of hostilities, our defenders are holding the defense.
• Sivershchyna and Slobozhanshchyna axes: the enemy shelled the settlements of Hasychivka, Yeline, Bleshnya, Karpovychi, Tymonovichi, Leonivka, and Muravyi of the Chernihiv Oblast with artillery; Znob-Novgorodsk, Uralov, Seredyna-Buda, Kucherivka, Rivne, Vorozhba, Volfine, Mykolaivka, Myropillia in the Sumy Oblast, as well as Veterinarne, Vilkhivka, Gatyshche, Vovchansk and Potikhonov in the Kharkiv
• Kupyansk axis: Krasne Pershe, Figolivka, Novomlynsk, Liman Pershey, Kupyansk, Kislivka, Krokhmalne and Berestov of the Kharkiv Oblast were subjected to artillery and mortar shelling.
• Lyman axis: Makiivka in the Luhansk Oblast and Belogorivka, Verkhnokamianske and Spirne in the Donetsk Oblast were hit by artillery fire.
• Bakhmut axis:  Vasyukivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Novomarkove, Hryhorivka, Khromove, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar, Kostyantynivka, Predtechine, Diliivka and Pivdenne of the Donetsk Oblast were affected by enemy shelling.
• Avdiivka axis: the enemy shelled Novokalynov, Avdiivka, Severne, Tonenka, Karlivka and Netaylov.
• Mar’yinka axis: Krasnohorivka, Georgiivka, Pobyeda and Novomykhailivka of the Donetsk Oblast came under enemy fire.
• Shakhtars’ke axis: the enemy shelled Novoukrayinka and Prechistivka in Donetsk
• Zaporizhzhia and Kherson axes: the enemy continues to conduct defensive operations. Fired at more than 30x settlements. Among them are Vremivka and Novosilka of the Donetsk Oblast; Gulyaipole, Biloghirya, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanilivka, Novoandriivka and Kamianske of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast; Nikopol’ in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; Zolota Balka, Dudchany, Kachkarivka, Vesele, Lviv, Ivanivka, Mykilske, Antonivka, Dniprovske, Kizomys of the Kherson Oblast and the city of Kherson.

Support the Armed Forces! United we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

Above: Luhansk Oblast Administration reported that the enemy is unable to move forward in the region but suffers high daily casualties, that desertion among LNR fighters is “massive” and that life in Lysychansk, Severodonetsk and Rubizhne is frozen in disrepair and disorganization. “If they tried to show some public works in Severodonetsk for propaganda purposes, the other cities haven’t seen anything for a year.” Government employees aren’t paid, work crews loot and strip metal from buildings and walls are plastered with “missing” posters for presumed deserters. (LODA)

Video: In Kharkiv, municipal workers renew the “Glory to Ukraine” flowerbed in Shevchenko Park. 

• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on May 2. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks near Novoselivske (15km northwest of Svatove), Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (11km south of Kreminna).

Above: A handsome Ukrainian military helicopter low to the ground in Donetsk, April 29, 2023. (National Review)

Above: The fourth evacuation train from Donetsk to Berdychiv, Zhytomyr, arrived with 45 resettlers including 19 children.  These folks forced to leave their homes due to Russian aggression were from Bakhmut, Toretsk, Pokorovks, Kramatorsk and Dobropillia. (Photo: Ukrzaliznytsia)

• Russian forces made marginal gains near Bakhmut but did not advance within the city itself on May 2. Geolocated footage published on May 1 indicates that Russian forces made marginal gains northeast of the O0506 highway near Khromove (immediately west of Bakhmut). That there were 17 combat clashes in the Bakhmut area. Ukrainian forces periodically attack Russian positions in Bakhmut when they see opportunities to conduct assaults that would not endanger their troops and Ukrainian counterattacks are part of the Ukrainian mobile defense in Bakhmut.
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front on May 2. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Sieverne (7km west of Avdiivka), Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka), and Marinka.

Above: Overnight, the enemy sent drone swarms into Zaporizhzhia, Kirovohrad and Kyiv oblasts. An oil depot in Kropyvnytsky, Kirovohrad Oblast, was hit by three Iranian Shahed drones. As described by UK Military Intelligence today, the enemy –  for the first time – may be shifting its missile and bombing strategy away from civilians and civil infrastructure towards actual military targets. (Suspilne)

Above: Ukrainian service members attend military exercises at a training ground in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, April 28, 2023. (National Review)

There may also have been another #Ukraine hit south of #Melitopol' in the Sea of Azov.

A pall of smoke is seen rising in the village of #Fedotka on the Kirillivka spit, where many of #Russia's invaders thought they were out of reach.#StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/IXyy9hgTUX

— Tim White (@TWMCLtd) May 3, 2023

• Ukrainian forces continue to operate on and around islands in the Dnipro River delta in Kherson Oblast. Geolocated footage posted by a Russian milblogger on May 2 shows Ukrainian forces conducting a raid in the Kherson City port area directly south of Kherson City. This footage is likely part of a continuing Ukrainian presence in the Dnipro River islands.  ISW does not currently assess Ukrainian activities in and across the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast as counteroffensive.
• Ukrainian forces continue to strike key Russian logistics nodes in Zaporizhzhia Zaporizhzhia occupation said that Ukrainian forces fired eight HIMARS rockets at Tokmak and struck a railway and residential areas on May 2.  Ukrainian forces have consistently targeted nodes such as Tokmak and Melitopol since at least September 2022.
• Russian sources accused Ukrainian forces of targeting Crimea with drone strikes on May 1. Russian occupation authorities claimed that Russian forces shot down two Ukrainian drones targeting Yevpatoria on May 1. Improving weather conditions are likely allowing Ukrainian and Russian forces to use drones more frequently in southern Ukraine.
• Likely Ukrainian partisans targeted an occupation internal affairs official on May 2 with an improvised explosive device attack at his home, which severely injured the official. Russian KGB in occupied Zaporizhia claimed that it detained three saboteurs allegedly responsible for both the May 2 attack and the assassination of an occupation police chief in Melitopol on April 27.

Above: In Odesa and other parts of Ukraine, children are trained on mine safety.  (Ukrainian State Emergency Service)