ISW: Russia to use truce and regroup for new offensive against Ukraine

Russia is likely to use any ceasefire in the war with Ukraine to prepare for a new offensive, analysts at the Washington–based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warn.

“Any potential future Russian agreement to freeze the front short of Russia’s full control of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts does not preclude future Russian aggression,” the report reads.

The Kremlin is aiming to achieve its broader territorial ambitions, especially if a moratorium is imposed on the supply of Western military aid to Ukraine, experts suggest.

“The current frontlines do not provide the strategic depth that Ukraine will need to reliably defend against renewed Russian aggression, as Russian forces are just across the Dnipro River from Kherson City, roughly 25 kilometers from Zaporizhzhia City, and 20 kilometers from Kharkiv City,” the analysts said.

Russia has also increased the use of armored vehicles along the front line, which may signal the start of a long-term campaign to seize the so-called “fortress belt” in Donetsk region.

“Likely as part of efforts to gain as much territory as possible in eastern and southern Ukraine, particularly in the four oblasts to which Russia has formally laid claim,” the report reads.

The Kremlin could temporarily relax its demands for full control over the occupied regions in exchange for other concessions from the U.S., such as a pro-Russian shift in Ukraine’s government or a significant reduction in Ukraine’s military forces, ISW reports.

“The Kremlin will likely exploit any ceasefire predicated on limitations on US weapons supplies to Ukraine to prepare for renewed aggression,” the analysts said.