More than a third of Ukrainian refugees will return to Ukraine after the end of the war, suggests researcher Ella Libanova, Head of the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies.
“The experience of the Balkan wars says that a third returns. This despite the fact that there was forced return in Serbia. I think that we will return a little more than a third. Why do I think so? Because, strangely enough, we have this feeling… it’s not even patriotism, it’s some kind of Ukrainianness. It is there,” Libanova explained.
The experience of the first two weeks after the start of a full-scale war testifies to the probable positive dynamics. Then the president signed a decree on martial law, and men of the conscription age were not allowed to leave. Despite this, 200,000 Ukrainian men returned.
“Does this mean something? They understood that they would not be able to cross the border back. Therefore, I count on a larger number of people who will return to Ukraine. In fact, everything depends on how long the hot phase will last,” Libanova said.
The return of Ukrainians will be influenced by three main factors – housing, work, and security, Head of the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies adds.
“God grant that after everything is over, by 2035, there will be 30 million of us,” Libanova concluded.