Putin aims to break Ukraine by terrorizing the civilian population

by Peter Dickinson, UK journalist and researcher, editor of Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service and publisher of Business Ukraine Magazine and Lviv Today magazine

Source: Atlantic Council

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to the front lines this week to congratulate his troops on a counteroffensive that has reversed more than a year of Russian gains and thwarted Kremlin plans to encircle the strategically vital fortress belt cities of eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. The success of Operation Vivaldi has showcased Ukraine’s mastery of drone warfare and confirmed the country’s continued ability to defeat the invading Russian army.

Beyond the battlefield, however, the outlook is far more favorable for the Kremlin. In recent months, it has become increasingly evident that Russia holds the upper hand in the air war against Ukraine. Putin now aims to exploit this advantage and break Ukrainian resistance by terrorizing the civilian population with a bombing campaign designed to disrupt every aspect of daily life and make much of the country unlivable.

Russia’s current dominance in the air reflects a number of converging factors. Since early 2026, Ukraine’s ability to protect against ballistic missile strikes has been severely eroded by the depletion of the country’s Patriot air defense interceptors. With Patriot interceptor stocks running low globally amid unprecedented usage during the US campaign against Iran, this has left Ukraine’s cities dangerously exposed to Russian ballistic missile attacks. The Kremlin is well aware of this vulnerability and has cranked up production while modifying its existing arsenal, leading to a series of record ballistic bombardments in recent months.

In parallel, Russia has also developed a new generation of jet drones that feature a range of upgraded performance characteristics and are more than two times faster than their propeller-driven predecessors, making them much more difficult to intercept. Ukrainian defense tech engineers are racing to develop solutions capable of countering the jet drone threat, but it may take months before suitable systems can be produced and deployed in sufficient quantities to neutralize Russia’s new terror weapon. In the meantime, dozens of deadly jet drones are penetrating Ukraine’s overstretched defenses and hitting targets across the country every single day.

Russia’s current ascendancy in the air is transforming the security situation for Ukraine’s civilian population. Mounting ballistic missile strikes have led to a surge in the civilian death toll, with the number of people killed in July rising 70 percent compared to the previous year according to United Nations data. Meanwhile, relentless waves of daytime jet drone attacks are causing the breakdown of everyday life in Ukraine’s major cities with schools, offices, businesses, and public transport unable to operate.

Russian attacks on Ukraine’s civilian population are nothing new, of course. Ever since the first days of the full-scale invasion, Russian forces have routinely targeted civilian infrastructure, while tens of thousands of Ukrainian residents are thought to have been killed during the capture of Mariupol in the initial stages of the war. In each of the past four wartime winters, Moscow has attempted to freeze Ukrainians into submission by bombing the country’s power grid. Nevertheless, most observers agree that the current campaign is on a different scale altogether.

The Kremlin appears to have abandoned any attempt to disguise its terror tactics and is now openly striking a wide variety of civilian targets. In recent days, Russian jet drones have hit the National Academy of Sciences in central Kyiv along with hospitals, schools, supermarkets, fuel stations, internet data hubs, business centers, and repeated strikes on one of the busiest bridges across the Dnipro River.

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