by Miro Sedlak, a senior energy sector executive, a security and defense studies doctoral candidate at the Armed Forces Academy of General M.R. Stefanik, Slovakia
Source: Atlantic Council
Ukraine recently survived the fourth winter of Russia’s full-scale invasion. That is not a figure of speech. During the winter months, Moscow’s clear intention was to freeze millions of Ukrainians into submission by bombing power and heating infrastructure amid subzero temperatures.
Russia has employed similar tactics during each wartime winter, but the scale of the latest bombing campaign was unprecedented. In January, United Nations officials documented regular strikes on energy infrastructure across seventeen regions of Ukraine. By the end of the winter season, all of Ukraine’s thermal power plants had been damaged or destroyed.
In Kyiv, thousands of residential buildings were left without central heating for extended periods. The municipal authorities reported zero deaths as a result of power and heating outages, but some volunteers who visited freezing apartments remain skeptical that the official statistics tell the full story.
Ukraine was able to endure the hardships of the past winter because it adapted and improvised. In doing so, the country laid the foundations for an operational doctrine to keep cities warm when civilian infrastructure comes under systematic attack. This has practical applications beyond the borders of wartime Ukraine.
The model of heating infrastructure resilience that has emerged in Ukraine in recent years is based on decentralization and speed. When centralized heating plants became high-value targets for Russian drones and missiles, Ukrainian operators pivoted toward mobile cogeneration units. Greater reliance on these compact systems created the conditions to generate both electricity and heat independently of the wider grid.
By November 2025, Ukraine’s district heating sector was operating 182 cogeneration units alongside almost 250 block-modular boilers. This made it possible to create so-called “energy islands” for hospitals, water utilities, and residential heating. While European procurement cycles can often be measured in years, Ukrainian operators were able to install these decentralized heating and energy solutions in a matter of days.
Ukraine’s response was not planned in advance; it was improvised under fire. As Russia’s bombing campaigns have intensified over the past four years, Ukraine has developed a rapid repair doctrine complete with pre-positioned spare parts, emergency communication protocols, and decision-making at the municipal level that cuts through the bureaucratic hierarchy.
An assessment by the International Energy Agency (IEA) published in February 2026 found that Ukraine’s comprehensive emergency response capabilities could offer important lessons for the international community. The immediate neighborhood stands to gain most from studying Ukraine’s experience.
Across Central and Eastern Europe, district heating is the primary way cities stay warm. Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and the Baltic states all depend on centralized systems similar to Ukraine’s that date back to the Soviet era. This makes them potentially vulnerable if adversaries choose to target civilian infrastructure.
Cover: DepositPhotos
